Thread by @Harold__Finch22

My friend Derek here has put into words whats happening eloquently; i want to expound on his tweet.

Let’s consider the situation from @POTUS POV. He warned them after midnight hammer not to restart the nuclear program. He warned them to abandon offensive missiles.
1.

https://twitter.com/SuitablePolitic/status/2020601823543873794

-The regime is unburying Natanz & Al Fordow as fast as possible.
-they tested an ICBM two weeks ago that can hit the Continental US.
-they just refused in talks to discontinue either.
-talk buy us time to fully map the internal secret police apparatus of the regime.
2.

-the longer the ‘diplomacy’ goes the less Iran thinks we will strike.
-the more time we have to put all forces in place for both the attack AND for the counter attack of the regimes death throes.
-the more time we have to plan the coordination needed for both phases.
3.

Dont forget this is how both Operations Midnight Hammer & Absolute Resolve went. The wait times for both to happen were extended/prolonged; but the results were flawless execution. That is the hallmark of this admin.
4.

Do not mistake priority for urgency; they are not the same. There is another historical precedent here i want you to consider: D-Day. The logistics needed, the timing, the coordination, the sheer scope, the importance of the operation, it all had to be planned THOROUGHLY.
5.

Its contingencies, the intelligence preparation of the battlefield & the gathering of the vast amounts of intelligence needed to create a plan that could succeed, the planning of follow on operations, & exploitation operations..
6.

The operation to depose the Iranian regime is very different than the raid on Fordow & the capture of Maduro.
Let me elaborate….
7.

Phase one: SEAD. Suppression Enemy Air Defenses. This evolved from the Wild Weasel missions of Vietnam where fighter bomber crews would escort air attack ‘packages’ by playing chicken w/ & killing Surface to Air Missile batteries.

SEAD today is done by F-35 stealth fighters, attacks early warning radars, search/track radars, SAM sites & their fire control radars, communication nodes, & key people & command locations. SEAD.
9.

The second phase which likely will IMMEDIATELY follow the SEAD opening phase paving the way by blinding & killing the air defense network is a strike by Strategic bombers.
10.

B-2 spirits will visit Esfahan, Natanz, Parchin, & Al Fordow again. And other targets where high value leadership are at. They will be escorted by growlers, & Wild Weasels in F-35s just as they were during Operation Midnight Hammer.
11.

But it wont just be spirits; there will likely be B-52H & B-1b strategic bombers also flying from the US to the general vicinity of Iran and launching a massive number of air launched cruise missiles from stand off ranges.
12.

This will happen in coordination & timing with massive numbers of tomahawk cruise missiles from the US Navy ships escorting the USS Abraham Lincoln. Air strikes from the carrier will also happen at this time during this phase.
13.

The target set will be much, MUCH larger this time.
-Regime ballistic missiles & launch sites
- ballistic missile production facilities
-drone launch & production locations
-internal secret police personnel, barracks, leadership, command/communications
14.

-airfields & Mig-29 fighters
-regime leadership personnel
-leadership homes
-leadership safe houses
-regime police stations
-military units that can be used to repress the population.
-airports to prevent regime leaders escape

And other targets.
15.

You dont have to destroy the entire regime. You just have to kill enough regime leadership & enough of the secret police force internally to prevent them from effectively suppressing the population.

This is the next phase…
16.

After these strikes have taken place & iran’s regime has no air defense left & internal secret police forces are decimated, the people will return to the streets.

At this point it shifts to Asymmetric warfare; Unconventional Warfare.
17.

Think about teams of green berets inside iran working with the protesters to topple the regime. Think green berets on the ground calling in F-15 strike eagles, super hornets & A-10s to attack remaining regime forces trying suppress the uprising.
18.

Think flooding Iranian airspace with MQ-9 reaper drones armed with hellfire missiles watching the people’s uprising in every city & waiting to use Hellfire missiles on any Basij or IRGC units attempting to save the regime.
19.

Think RQ-170 drones blanketing iran in real-time intelligence coverage showing where regime remnants have come out of hiding to target & kill them.
20.

After Operation Midnight Hammer the President warned Iran not to restart the missile program or the nuclear program.

They responded by beginning to try to rebuild the nuclear sites & test firing an ICBM that can hit the US mainland.
21.

The Regime demonstrated it cannot be left in place. It is a threat to the US homeland. Trump gave them a chance to survive. They chose to disregard it.

The die is cast. And like D-Day, we will take our time & act when the moment is right.
22.

@threadreaderapp unroll please.