Thread by @Sandeman52

$NBIS People are still thinking about AI infrastructure like it’s a normal cloud cycle. It’s not. We’re watching the early buildout of the physical backbone of the AI economy. And by 2030, that backbone could be worth trillions. For $NBIS a SP of $800 to $1900 in 2030 is a distinct possibility

Thread-->

Compute demand is compounding faster than almost any infrastructure buildout in modern history. Training clusters are getting larger. Inference demand is exploding. Physical AI is emerging. Robotics is coming online.
All of this runs on compute.

By 2030, the winning AI infrastructure companies won’t just be “cloud providers.” They’ll be industrial-scale compute utilities powering intelligence across the global economy.
That’s the category Nebius is building toward.

If Nebius executes, the story between now and 2030 is straightforward:
• Massive GPU deployment
• Power capacity expansion
• AI cloud revenue scaling
• Margin expansion from utilization
• Software and platform leverage
Infrastructure first. Profitability later.

Think about the scale shift.
Traditional cloud grew alongside the internet.
AI cloud grows alongside machine intelligence.
That’s a much steeper curve.

Let’s talk numbers.
If Nebius reaches something like $25B–$40B in annual revenue by 2030, that would place it firmly in the top tier of AI-native infrastructure providers.
Not impossible in a world where AI compute demand keeps doubling every few years.

Infrastructure companies at scale often trade between 8–12x revenue during strong growth phases.
That would imply something like:
$200B to $480B market cap potential.

Using about 250M shares outstanding, that translates to a 2030 stock price range roughly between:
$800 and $1,900 per share.
That sounds extreme...until you zoom out.

Seven years ago, hyperscale AI clusters barely existed.
Today, single deployments can involve tens of thousands of GPUs.
By 2030, million-GPU environments are realistic.
Infrastructure follows demand.

The biggest mistake investors make is assuming AI infrastructure growth will slow down.
But every new model, agent, robot, and enterprise AI system increases compute demand again.
AI builds on itself.

This is why AI infrastructure behaves differently than SaaS.
SaaS scales with users.
AI infrastructure scales with intelligence, and intelligence is becoming an industrial input.

$NBIS doesn’t need to dominate the market to win.
Even a small share of global AI compute could justify a valuation many multiples higher than today.

Between now and 2030, the key variables to watch are simple:
GPU deployment
Power capacity
Revenue growth
Utilization rates
Operating margins
Everything else is noise.

If AI adoption continues accelerating, the limiting factor won’t be demand.
It will be infrastructure.
That’s where Nebius lives.

2030 sounds far away, but in infrastructure cycles, it’s right around the corner.
The companies laying physical AI foundations today may define the next decade of markets.