What is transpiring at Hearts this season is an excellent case study on performance measurement and related attribution now that they are 26 games into the league season, which was the tenure of Neil Critchley last season.
Firstly, Tony Bloom said he expected Hearts to compete
Firstly, Tony Bloom said he expected Hearts to compete
https://twitter.com/SAAdvantage/status/2021528822206886196
at least for 2nd this season.
Over the past 7 seasons prior to 2025-2026, the 2nd place team had an average non-penalty xG difference of 1.07 and goal difference of 1.36. The lowest 2nd place finisher in each were both Rangers last season, with an non-penalty xG difference
Over the past 7 seasons prior to 2025-2026, the 2nd place team had an average non-penalty xG difference of 1.07 and goal difference of 1.36. The lowest 2nd place finisher in each were both Rangers last season, with an non-penalty xG difference
about double that of Hearts so far this season, with a goal difference per game slightly below Hearts'.
That gap between goal difference and underlying performance levels is where randomness lives, which is often misattributed to managers.
Hearts' goal difference through
That gap between goal difference and underlying performance levels is where randomness lives, which is often misattributed to managers.
Hearts' goal difference through
26 games of +28 is 23 more than the +5 during Critchley's 26 games last season.
A pretty simple attribution framework results in the following in order of impact:
Own goals and penalties +10
Finishing +8
non-penalty xG +3
A pretty simple attribution framework results in the following in order of impact:
Own goals and penalties +10
Finishing +8
non-penalty xG +3
Keeper shot stopping +2
Those number represent the net change and impact between for and against, so this season's Hearts team has benefited by 10 goals relative to the 26 games under Critchley between own goals and penalties for vs against, for example.
Those number represent the net change and impact between for and against, so this season's Hearts team has benefited by 10 goals relative to the 26 games under Critchley between own goals and penalties for vs against, for example.
Clubs like Brentford and those affiliated with Bloom very likely understand these dynamics, and also recognize that "dumb money" misattributes a lot of the swings to managers and players.
They'll assess managers similarly to the now infamous Nancy Venn Diagram.
They'll assess managers similarly to the now infamous Nancy Venn Diagram.
If Bloom had/has an expectation of this season's Hearts' squad being good enough to "at least" finish 2nd, then that suggests an underlying performance gap of at least 0.4 non-penalty xG so far.
Of the roughly 3 goals in improved underlying performance level, despite the massive
Of the roughly 3 goals in improved underlying performance level, despite the massive
overhaul in the playing squad via Jamestown Analytics, 2 are from set pieces and just 1 from open play.
Given Hearts hired a dedicated set piece coach, this leaves a 1 goal increase that is more directly attributable to the head coach.
To match the worst 2nd place team from
Given Hearts hired a dedicated set piece coach, this leaves a 1 goal increase that is more directly attributable to the head coach.
To match the worst 2nd place team from
open play, Hearts would have to have increased over the level under Critchley by 13 to 14 expected goal difference, which compares to 1 through 26 games.
That -12 to -13 is a decent performance scorecard for Derrick McInnes, and even if Hearts win the league, which is
That -12 to -13 is a decent performance scorecard for Derrick McInnes, and even if Hearts win the league, which is
clearly plausible, the things he can reasonably control are likely performing WAAAY below Bloom's expectations.
The vast majority of people disagreeing with this kind of analysis is precisely how Bloom and Behnam made hundreds of millions betting against the majority.
The vast majority of people disagreeing with this kind of analysis is precisely how Bloom and Behnam made hundreds of millions betting against the majority.
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