Casey Handmer Profile picture
Feb 14 1 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Just to be clear here, NASA declared its recent test a "successful wet dress rehearsal" despite missing its T-30s target by almost five minutes, botching the dreaded Orion hatch close out procedure, and managing to achieve up to 16% H2 due to copious leakage at the fueling interface. For reference, the lower flammability limit, and system requirement, is just 4%, beyond which this nightmare fuel can burn and detonate in air.

The "wet dress" was so successful, in fact, that they have to do it all over again in the unspecified near future. But before that, the same team ran a "(no) confidence test" on the leaky fueling interface which failed badly enough that they buried it until 8pm on the following Friday.

The SLS ground support budget runs at $650m per year, and they've had 1173 days since the last test to get this right.

Coincidentally it also took 1173 days for Hyman Rickover and his team to ship the world's first nuclear power reactor, wrapped in a fully functional submarine, for about a third of the total cost of the SLS's botched ground support equipment, in the 1950s. What a difference a serious team makes!

Furthermore, we are assured that the engineering on SLS/Orion is so rigorous and the team is so elite that it's totally okay to test fly this turkey with four currently living astronauts on it, not to Low Earth Orbit like some kind of participation trophy Starliner repeat, but all the way around the Moon, on a completely unique, untested configuration.

On the same week that a key SLS contractor's solid fueled booster rocket engine, launching a critical national security payload on a flagship national rocket, managed to explode, for the second time in three flights, for no apparent reason.

I'm going to say it. What do @CAgovernor and @SenTedCruz have in common? They both want to be President and they both will apparently go to the hilt to defend the worst national flagship infrastructure contractors in the history of the entire world. Why are they determined to ally so overtly with such conspicuous losers? What can they possibly be getting from such a raw deal? How can they possibly be so desperate?

We can choose to roll the dice with four lives on Artemis II. If they survive the launch, they can snap some really cool photos with their newly certified iPhones of the Moon shooting by out their window as they follow a trajectory that Apollo 13 took only under extreme duress. They can fulfill Artemis II's (I kid you not) "science objectives" by performing a visual inspection of the Moon that you can do yourself in the comfort of your own backyard with a $200 pair of binoculars.

But when (not if) something goes horribly wrong, I do not want to hear "no-one could have seen this coming" or "we followed a rigorous flight rationale process" or "we checked all the boxes" or "this was the best we could do".

At this point, the safest thing about the SLS and Orion is that they're so FUBARed that it might not even be possible to get them to T-0.

Astronauts and taxpayers deserve far better.

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More from @CJHandmer

Aug 2, 2025
I don't use @Apple products but I just learned that the voice recorder app that ships with iOS, that has existed for 20 years, which has one (1) job (write a bit stream from a microphone to flash memory), sometimes fails silently despite giving a functional status.

Steve would murder over this.
As in, for any extended voice memo you have less than a single 9 of reliability.

It has a status bar, that you use to check it hasn't crapped out, that lies to you.

A customer. Who spends real money on this phone. Which is built by one of the most valuable companies in history.

Who work in a circular cult compound that cost over a billion dollars to build.

Who can't ship a functional voice recorder app.
Why don't you use Apple products, Casey?

If you have to ask...
Read 4 tweets
Nov 25, 2024
434 pages, almost no content. Who wrote it? How long did it take? It reads like the Codex Seraphinianus.

But first, would you like a NASA STI? Image
No time to thoroughly review now, but here's a quick summary. Zero mentions of Starship. Three of SpaceX (all image credits). Zero entry of methane. One mention of direct entry. Image
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Read 29 tweets
Jun 14, 2024
What happens to the future of energy generation in the US with cheap synthetic fuels added to the mix?

First, let's look at energy flows through the US in 2021, measured in Quads, or quadrillion BTUs.

Rejected Energy is a fancy word for "waste heat". Image
Step 1: Do a 1-1 replacement of all industrial coal, petroleum, and natural gas with their synthetic equivalents. Solar to fuel is about 35% efficient, so we're increasing wasted heat, but that heat would otherwise be on undeveloped solar land anyway. Image
Step 2 is to move grid electricity completely off coal and gas, move a bunch of (ground) transportation onto electricity and a bunch more (high performance aviation) onto synthetic gas. Image
Read 8 tweets
Feb 27, 2024
I'm reading this to my kids. Follow along for light hearted technical commentary.
Unsure why people would go to the trouble of building large underground masonry structures when they could skip directly to tensile transparent membranes made of fluorinated reinforced plastics and live on the surface under daylight. Image
It is 100 times cheaper, expressed in terms of fuel consumption. But LEO will retain a fuel cost advantage which may erode Mars' competitiveness. Image
Read 44 tweets
Jan 8, 2024
Here's how we fix water scarcity in the US SW forever.

The current Imperial Valley irrigation system has worked well* for more than a century, but it's time to upgrade it.
The addition of a large solar powered desal plant and brine processor will upgrade the region's economic engine from wildly productive agriculture to add wildly productive industry and housing.
Water abundance will also allow the permanent remediation of the Salton Sea, fixing its level and salinity and allowing life to return.
Finally, a detailed block diagram showing material and economic flows.
* Sometimes too well.Image
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Here's the geographic summary.
Block diagram explanation.
Read 4 tweets
Jun 29, 2022
I'm about half way through this interview. I'm not unfamiliar with Marxist ideas and definitely left of center by US standards but I'm really struggling to believe just how poor Wolff's arguments are. Thread with examples:
Zero recognition of rising productivity increasing wealth. For example, mechanization of labor results in lay offs instead of direct distribution of increased surplus to laborers.
Okay, that sucks, but mechanization also reduces the market price of products for those same workers, increases demand (partly compensating for reduction in work force) and moves the labor force as a whole into higher productivity roles.
Read 23 tweets

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