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Santi Ruiz Profile picture
@rSanti97
Feb 26 • 1 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
Fascinating paper

"...We find that narrow election of a Republican prosecutor reduces all-cause mortality rates among young men ages 20-29 by 6.6%. This decline is driven predominantly by reductions in firearm-related deaths." drive.google.com/file/d/1aEfIlS…Image

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More from @rSanti97

Santi Ruiz Profile picture
Nov 25, 2025
You're the president in 2029. The political leadership of Chicago and Illinois are holding an emergency press conference. They're broke. No more money for cops, teachers, trash collectors.

The question, from @ProfSchleich:
Do you bail them out? statecraft.pub/p/should-the-f…
It's not a crazy hypothetical.

Chicago itself operates 4 pension funds. All of them are in big trouble, as is Illinois' state pension system. Image
7 of the 10 worst-funded local pension systems in America are in the Chicago area.
Read 9 tweets
Santi Ruiz Profile picture
Sep 1, 2025
People think broken windows is just "clean up graffiti, and people will commit less crime"

But the original broken windows theory and practice were both much more nuanced (1/n)
Kelling and Wilson wrote the eponymous essay in 1982, and they do sketch out the idea most people think of as "broken windows theory": In a disorderly neighborhood, people are more likely to commit crimes.

theatlantic.com/magazine/archi…Image
And they do base this theory in part on a study that seems, frankly, super fake.

(See The Studies Show for an episode that treats Zimbardo in more depth: ) thestudiesshowpod.com/p/episode-75-b…Image
Read 8 tweets
Santi Ruiz Profile picture
Aug 21, 2025
Federal hiring is broken. It can take years to get a job, the pay scales are too rigid, you can't promote a rockstar, and you can't fire a dud.

Today on Statecraft, @judgeglock asks: What if we just copy what the states already do? statecraft.pub/p/how-to-fix-g…
Almost half the states have at-will employment, i.e., no civil service protections. In many states, government managers can hire someone off the street, just like the private sector.

But at the national level, there's a 300-page hiring rulebook to follow. Image
Judge helpfully articulates a point reformers have to keep making:

"Can the admin legally lay off large numbers of civil servants?" is a totally distinct question from "What should the layoff process look like?" Image
Read 6 tweets
Santi Ruiz Profile picture
Jul 31, 2025
Dean Karlan's spent his career obsessing over a development economics question: How can we actually test what works?

For the past two years, his job was to make USAID more efficient — to get the maximum value out of each dollar.

Then came DOGE.
statecraft.pub/p/how-to-fix-f…
This morning, Ross Douthat interviewed one of the DOGE team members involved in restructuring USAID.

Interesting to read/listen to the two conversations in parallel with each other. nytimes.com/2025/07/31/opi…
The index for my conversation with Karlan: Image
Read 7 tweets
Santi Ruiz Profile picture
Jul 29, 2025
Look, I've been in the "you don't hate journalists enough" camp my entire professional life.

But a lot of my SF friends have this strong intuition that it's immoral to profile public figures critically. I think that's a crazy overcorrection.
DOGE was the biggest news story in the country for months. DOGE team members said their work was vital to save the nation. Maybe it was! But if that's true, then people are going to write about you.
I've been trying to get DOGE team members to come on Statecraft all year. Lots of background conversations, but so far, no willingness to sit for an on-record, adversarial interview (with one exception, but he's already done the media circuit).

So it's weird to me that people complain DOGE critics don't go on record. DOGE guys won't go on record! x.com/rSanti97/statu…
Read 4 tweets
Santi Ruiz Profile picture
Jun 3, 2025
Even if you think caring about this stuff is a red flag, it behooves you to have the facts straight.

Quick thread on some highlights (although the full slide deck is a quick read):
Total fertility rate is down everywhere.

Plenty of middle-income countries have it worse than the rich+ East Asian countries. Image
World TFR is likely already below replacement. Image
Read 10 tweets

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