Everyone thinks the U.S.-Iran crisis is ONLY about oil. It’s not.
It's about what oil becomes.
And nobody is talking about the chain reaction that comes next.
It's about what oil becomes.
And nobody is talking about the chain reaction that comes next.
https://twitter.com/patrickdowns/status/2030858956776866023
About 20 million barrels of oil per day normally move through the Strait of Hormuz.
20% of global petroleum supply.
Most people see that and think:
"Gas prices."
But the real dependency is much deeper.
Roughly 92% of the world's sulfur comes from oil and gas refining.
20% of global petroleum supply.
Most people see that and think:
"Gas prices."
But the real dependency is much deeper.
Roughly 92% of the world's sulfur comes from oil and gas refining.
And sulfur is the feedstock for sulfuric acid - the most produced chemical on Earth. Without sulfuric acid, modern industry stops.
Because sulfuric acid is how we extract:
→ Copper
→ Cobalt
→ Nickel
Because sulfuric acid is how we extract:
→ Copper
→ Cobalt
→ Nickel
No sulfuric acid means:
→ No transformers
→ No EV batteries
→ No electronics substrates used in data centers
One chemical.
One feedstock.
→ No transformers
→ No EV batteries
→ No electronics substrates used in data centers
One chemical.
One feedstock.
And a huge portion of it ultimately depends on oil refining flows that rely on Hormuz.
But the cascade doesn't stop there. Qatar ships a major share of its liquefied natural gas through the Strait.
But the cascade doesn't stop there. Qatar ships a major share of its liquefied natural gas through the Strait.
That gas powers countries across Asia, including Taiwan.
Taiwan currently has very limited LNG storage capacity, meaning disruptions quickly become power shortages. And one company sits at the center of that risk:
Taiwan currently has very limited LNG storage capacity, meaning disruptions quickly become power shortages. And one company sits at the center of that risk:
TSMC.
TSMC produces around 90% of the world's most advanced semiconductors.
And it consumes nearly 9% of Taiwan's electricity.
No LNG → no power.
No power → no chips.
No chips → no Al hardware, no advanced electronics, no modern military systems.
TSMC produces around 90% of the world's most advanced semiconductors.
And it consumes nearly 9% of Taiwan's electricity.
No LNG → no power.
No power → no chips.
No chips → no Al hardware, no advanced electronics, no modern military systems.
Still think this is just an oil story?
Roughly one-third of the world's nitrogen fertilizer feedstock moves through the Strait of Hormuz.
Synthetic nitrogen fertilizers are the reason the planet can feed billions of people.
Without them, global agricultural output collapses.
Roughly one-third of the world's nitrogen fertilizer feedstock moves through the Strait of Hormuz.
Synthetic nitrogen fertilizers are the reason the planet can feed billions of people.
Without them, global agricultural output collapses.
So the real system looks like this:
Energy → Sulfur → Sulfuric acid → Metals →
Batteries & electronics
Gas → Electricity → Taiwan → Advanced semiconductors.
Energy → Sulfur → Sulfuric acid → Metals →
Batteries & electronics
Gas → Electricity → Taiwan → Advanced semiconductors.
Feedstock → Nitrogen fertilizer → Global food supply
Three civilization-critical supply chains.
All exposed to one narrow maritime chokepoint only 21 nautical miles wide.
And the world has very few scalable domestic alternatives if that chokepoint fails.
Three civilization-critical supply chains.
All exposed to one narrow maritime chokepoint only 21 nautical miles wide.
And the world has very few scalable domestic alternatives if that chokepoint fails.
This isn't just about oil prices.
It's about how fragile the entire industrial system really is. And EVERY market will feel the impact.
When supply chains like that start to strain, the shock doesn't stop at factories or shipping lanes.
It's about how fragile the entire industrial system really is. And EVERY market will feel the impact.
When supply chains like that start to strain, the shock doesn't stop at factories or shipping lanes.
It spreads into every major market - energy, equities, currencies, commodities, crypto.
Because when the physical economy tightens, financial markets feel it next.
Because when the physical economy tightens, financial markets feel it next.
Trump and Hegseth do not understand supply chains. Or China, or Russia, or Yemen. They only follow Israel.
The idiots were blackmailed into war.
The idiots were blackmailed into war.
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