Cheltenham Friday 🐐🧵
Awful day for me yesterday lads!
Other than Woodhoh - not one return!
Did anyone have a good day?
My thoughts on each race today:
Other than Woodhoh - not one return!
Did anyone have a good day?
My thoughts on each race today:
13:20) Triumph Hurdle
2m1f juvenile hurdle (for 4 year olds).
What a race this is. All of the future superstars going at eachother. A star is normally born here after big name winners in recent years like Tiger Roll, Defi Du Seuil and Lossiemouth to name just a handful.
Willie has won this the last 4 years (and 5 of the last 6) and it’s no shock to see him have the two market leaders here.
Selma De Vary to me looks like she’s got proper yard tax on here mind at 7/2. Seems far too short. She didn’t look great in France and was comfortably beaten Narciso Has (the antepost favourite for this race) on stable debut. Looks to me that she could be easily beaten by a stronger progressive horse and I don’t think a 7lb claim will be enough to help her in the field. Watch her romp home haha.
Stablemate Proactif looks the better of the two IMO. Stronger form lines in France and won nicely on yard debut beating some bloody good horses. I’m surprised this one is drifting and isn’t favourite out of the two… but again, 4/1 even seems too short to me.
Anyway for me it’s all about Minella Study. Absolutely romped home for me here in December and what a spectacle that was. Beat One Horse Town (who was on a 5timer) by 10L and absolutely shot up the hill to go away and beat Winston Junior (who has since won at Ascot and come 2nd in Fred Winter here in Tuesday) by over 6L. Looks to be improving and with that course form on side I’m loving 6/1 for a nice each way bet. Of course these juvenile races are full of unexposed horses and you can never really know - but I would be shocked if he comes out of the top4.
I think Maestro Conti or Highland Crystal may even follow him home in second you know.
Maestro Conti also has course for after romping home here in January, although One Horse Town was a lot closer than Minella Study’s demolition job. Strong from race though nonetheless with Minella Yoga, Tenter Le Tout and La Luna Artista all being denied a hattrick (the latter has since followed up too). Skelton’s best chance to win this for the first time and should go very close.
Highland Crystal is an unbeaten 3-3 and has looked a rocket. Strong form lines too. Beat Saratoga LTO who won the Fred Winter on Tuesday. Looks ground versatile and should again go very close.
Would it be absolutely mental to put on a quid on Minella Study to win and Maestro Conti and Highland Crystal to both come top3 at 180/1? I think there’s a small chance of that happening you know.
Who really knows though eh? So many unexposed horses in this field who could be absolute rockets. Look at Poniros last year winning at 100/1. Madness.
Macho Man looked good on debut in France but lost to Proactif on yard debut and looks third string to me here at 9/1 looks too short.
Minella Academy looked good on debut but that was a poor race and the form hasn’t been franked. 16/1 for a reason
Kai Lung was ahead of Saratoga, Lynches Knock and Mon Creuset on yard/jumps debut and that is strong form. First one in the race so far that I think is overpriced at 28/1. Maybe even massively overpriced. I won’t be getting on myself but could easily see why someone would have a go on it.
The rest of the field surely don’t stand a chance? The only one that I think could be overpriced is Indian River (at 100/1) who is 3-3 unbeaten over hurdles. He beat absolutely nothing though and couldn’t get in to the Fred Winter though so surely doesn’t have a chance here.
So yeah I’m pretty set on Minella Study. Will have in an each way single and in a couple each way multis at 6/1.
On this race I may play a couple of build a bets too for extra fun:
Minella Study to win and Maestro Conti / Highland Crystal to both come top3 at 180/1
Minella Study top 3 and Maestro Conti / Highland Crystal to both come top5 at 14/1
Who is everyone else going for in this?
Anyone with me on Minella Study? Or really against me?
2m1f juvenile hurdle (for 4 year olds).
What a race this is. All of the future superstars going at eachother. A star is normally born here after big name winners in recent years like Tiger Roll, Defi Du Seuil and Lossiemouth to name just a handful.
Willie has won this the last 4 years (and 5 of the last 6) and it’s no shock to see him have the two market leaders here.
Selma De Vary to me looks like she’s got proper yard tax on here mind at 7/2. Seems far too short. She didn’t look great in France and was comfortably beaten Narciso Has (the antepost favourite for this race) on stable debut. Looks to me that she could be easily beaten by a stronger progressive horse and I don’t think a 7lb claim will be enough to help her in the field. Watch her romp home haha.
Stablemate Proactif looks the better of the two IMO. Stronger form lines in France and won nicely on yard debut beating some bloody good horses. I’m surprised this one is drifting and isn’t favourite out of the two… but again, 4/1 even seems too short to me.
Anyway for me it’s all about Minella Study. Absolutely romped home for me here in December and what a spectacle that was. Beat One Horse Town (who was on a 5timer) by 10L and absolutely shot up the hill to go away and beat Winston Junior (who has since won at Ascot and come 2nd in Fred Winter here in Tuesday) by over 6L. Looks to be improving and with that course form on side I’m loving 6/1 for a nice each way bet. Of course these juvenile races are full of unexposed horses and you can never really know - but I would be shocked if he comes out of the top4.
I think Maestro Conti or Highland Crystal may even follow him home in second you know.
Maestro Conti also has course for after romping home here in January, although One Horse Town was a lot closer than Minella Study’s demolition job. Strong from race though nonetheless with Minella Yoga, Tenter Le Tout and La Luna Artista all being denied a hattrick (the latter has since followed up too). Skelton’s best chance to win this for the first time and should go very close.
Highland Crystal is an unbeaten 3-3 and has looked a rocket. Strong form lines too. Beat Saratoga LTO who won the Fred Winter on Tuesday. Looks ground versatile and should again go very close.
Would it be absolutely mental to put on a quid on Minella Study to win and Maestro Conti and Highland Crystal to both come top3 at 180/1? I think there’s a small chance of that happening you know.
Who really knows though eh? So many unexposed horses in this field who could be absolute rockets. Look at Poniros last year winning at 100/1. Madness.
Macho Man looked good on debut in France but lost to Proactif on yard debut and looks third string to me here at 9/1 looks too short.
Minella Academy looked good on debut but that was a poor race and the form hasn’t been franked. 16/1 for a reason
Kai Lung was ahead of Saratoga, Lynches Knock and Mon Creuset on yard/jumps debut and that is strong form. First one in the race so far that I think is overpriced at 28/1. Maybe even massively overpriced. I won’t be getting on myself but could easily see why someone would have a go on it.
The rest of the field surely don’t stand a chance? The only one that I think could be overpriced is Indian River (at 100/1) who is 3-3 unbeaten over hurdles. He beat absolutely nothing though and couldn’t get in to the Fred Winter though so surely doesn’t have a chance here.
So yeah I’m pretty set on Minella Study. Will have in an each way single and in a couple each way multis at 6/1.
On this race I may play a couple of build a bets too for extra fun:
Minella Study to win and Maestro Conti / Highland Crystal to both come top3 at 180/1
Minella Study top 3 and Maestro Conti / Highland Crystal to both come top5 at 14/1
Who is everyone else going for in this?
Anyone with me on Minella Study? Or really against me?
14:00) County Hurdle
2m1f handicap hurdle.
Last year Willie said his NAP of the week would be whoever Paul chose in the County. He rode Kargese and she won nicely. I haven’t heard anything similar for this year but it’s not surprise to see Paul/Willie at the top of the market with Karbau.
He was running at Novice Grade1s last season and made a satisfactory return to action when third in a Grade3 in late January after 9 months off. Not bad. The winner had 5 runs already this season and only just beat him. Some other top horses behind. Hard to dismiss today. He was thumped in the Supreme last season and probably why he’s not shorter but yeah, I’ll be having him in an each way multi for sure.
I’ll also have a small cover bet on Tripoli Flyer each way at 33/1 too. Grade2 winner of a lowish mark in a handicap, with Fern’s 5lb claim and fitness on side after that flat run against Constitution Hill… could be a massive price. I’ve met one of the owners a number of times and seen him on Tuesday and he’s keen on its chances and thinks it’s massively overpriced. Hope he goes close.
Anyone have one they really fancy?
2m1f handicap hurdle.
Last year Willie said his NAP of the week would be whoever Paul chose in the County. He rode Kargese and she won nicely. I haven’t heard anything similar for this year but it’s not surprise to see Paul/Willie at the top of the market with Karbau.
He was running at Novice Grade1s last season and made a satisfactory return to action when third in a Grade3 in late January after 9 months off. Not bad. The winner had 5 runs already this season and only just beat him. Some other top horses behind. Hard to dismiss today. He was thumped in the Supreme last season and probably why he’s not shorter but yeah, I’ll be having him in an each way multi for sure.
I’ll also have a small cover bet on Tripoli Flyer each way at 33/1 too. Grade2 winner of a lowish mark in a handicap, with Fern’s 5lb claim and fitness on side after that flat run against Constitution Hill… could be a massive price. I’ve met one of the owners a number of times and seen him on Tuesday and he’s keen on its chances and thinks it’s massively overpriced. Hope he goes close.
Anyone have one they really fancy?
14:40) Mares Chase
2m5f chase for the females.
What a race this should be.
Dinoblue came second in this race in 2024 and won it last year in 2025. This is her gold cup and she is rightfully favourite. I wouldn’t turn anyone against backing her. The one to beat for sure.
Spindleberry is a machine and bar pulling up in the Irish Gold Cup (first time over 3m and then up against the males) she has looked brilliant. I can see why people would be getting on I just feel she hasn’t raced at Cheltenham before and is carrying extra weight so she won’t win. Evens for a place acca though I wouldn’t be against but yeah happy to leave her entirely here.
Mainly because I really fancy Panic Attack. Skelton has managed her so well over the last couple of years to get a nice mark for handicaps… to romp home over C&D here is November and then at Newbury a couple weeks later. Duly romped home in a weak listed event at Newbury again in January and this has surely been the plan since. I think she can take it to Dinoblue and win it. Market may be agreeing too - 11/4 in to 9/4 overnight. This would be another mega race for Skelton to win to win the trainers championship too and I hope she can get it done for him against those two Mullins horses.
I have her in an each way multi last night and I’ll have a win single on her on the course.
Who does everyone else fancy in this?
2m5f chase for the females.
What a race this should be.
Dinoblue came second in this race in 2024 and won it last year in 2025. This is her gold cup and she is rightfully favourite. I wouldn’t turn anyone against backing her. The one to beat for sure.
Spindleberry is a machine and bar pulling up in the Irish Gold Cup (first time over 3m and then up against the males) she has looked brilliant. I can see why people would be getting on I just feel she hasn’t raced at Cheltenham before and is carrying extra weight so she won’t win. Evens for a place acca though I wouldn’t be against but yeah happy to leave her entirely here.
Mainly because I really fancy Panic Attack. Skelton has managed her so well over the last couple of years to get a nice mark for handicaps… to romp home over C&D here is November and then at Newbury a couple weeks later. Duly romped home in a weak listed event at Newbury again in January and this has surely been the plan since. I think she can take it to Dinoblue and win it. Market may be agreeing too - 11/4 in to 9/4 overnight. This would be another mega race for Skelton to win to win the trainers championship too and I hope she can get it done for him against those two Mullins horses.
I have her in an each way multi last night and I’ll have a win single on her on the course.
Who does everyone else fancy in this?
15:20) Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle.
Grade 1 over 3m for first season hurdlers.
Just like the Supreme (2m) and the Turners (2m4f) - this is the final G1 for novice hurlers and it’s over 3m.
Huge field and no shock to see most of the market leaders from Ireland, who have won it 7 times in the last 9 years.
Willie’s yard has won 4 of those 7 and it’s so hard to see past past the favourite, Doctor Steinberg. Just like Old Park Star who won the Supreme - his bumper form wasn’t great but my god has he been impressive over hurdles. Won on good ground on hurdle debut against Frankie John who won soon after. Comfortably beat TheDevilUno NTO, who went on to win a G2 at Doncaster. Then romped home at DRF. 8L 2nd was Kazansky who won a G2 the time before. 14L 3rd was Love Me Tender who won a G3 a couple of races before. Brilliant. Does look a bit too keen and that may cost him over the extra distance and the hill but with recent experience on side and fine on good ground it’s impossible to ignore. 7/2 in to 11/4 overnight. I’ve already got in an each way multi and I’ll play a win single on the course.
May play a cover bet each way on Moneygarrow too at 12/1 who is proven at the distance and yard looking to secure as much prize money as possible to win the trainers championship.
Anyone also really keen on the fav?
Anyone really against him and on another?
Grade 1 over 3m for first season hurdlers.
Just like the Supreme (2m) and the Turners (2m4f) - this is the final G1 for novice hurlers and it’s over 3m.
Huge field and no shock to see most of the market leaders from Ireland, who have won it 7 times in the last 9 years.
Willie’s yard has won 4 of those 7 and it’s so hard to see past past the favourite, Doctor Steinberg. Just like Old Park Star who won the Supreme - his bumper form wasn’t great but my god has he been impressive over hurdles. Won on good ground on hurdle debut against Frankie John who won soon after. Comfortably beat TheDevilUno NTO, who went on to win a G2 at Doncaster. Then romped home at DRF. 8L 2nd was Kazansky who won a G2 the time before. 14L 3rd was Love Me Tender who won a G3 a couple of races before. Brilliant. Does look a bit too keen and that may cost him over the extra distance and the hill but with recent experience on side and fine on good ground it’s impossible to ignore. 7/2 in to 11/4 overnight. I’ve already got in an each way multi and I’ll play a win single on the course.
May play a cover bet each way on Moneygarrow too at 12/1 who is proven at the distance and yard looking to secure as much prize money as possible to win the trainers championship.
Anyone also really keen on the fav?
Anyone really against him and on another?
16:00) Gold Cup
Grade1 chase over 3m2f
The race of the week! Such a shame that Galopin Des Champs has pulled out but nonetheless, the quality of this field is still absolutely brilliant and I cannot wait to watch it!
Who is everyone going for and why?
The Jukebox Man for me. It’s taking me a while to fully warm to him but my god is he good.
Was very good over hurdles (close 2nd in the Albert Bartlett here in 2024) and has looked unstoppable over fences since.
Beat Johnnywho (who won the Ultima on Thursday) by 8L on chase debut. Maybe more impressive as Johnnywho has already had a winning chase debut under his belt too.
Then went to win the G1 Kauto Star NTO on Boxing Day. Superstar in the making.
Such a shame he then missed Cheltenham and Aintree last year with injury but he came right back in to it with his win in the Graduation Chase at Haydock before winning the King George ahead of Gaelic Warrior, Jango Baie, Banbridge and Fact To File. Super strong. Was so gutsy to win that and you can tell he wants it.
Hes probably improving the most in the field and should appreciate the return to Cheltenham and I think he wins it!
It would be so great for Pauling/Jones to win their first gold cups too.
I’ve got in an each way multi and I’ll have a win single on him on the course.
Anyone else with me on him?
Anyone super keen on another?
Grade1 chase over 3m2f
The race of the week! Such a shame that Galopin Des Champs has pulled out but nonetheless, the quality of this field is still absolutely brilliant and I cannot wait to watch it!
Who is everyone going for and why?
The Jukebox Man for me. It’s taking me a while to fully warm to him but my god is he good.
Was very good over hurdles (close 2nd in the Albert Bartlett here in 2024) and has looked unstoppable over fences since.
Beat Johnnywho (who won the Ultima on Thursday) by 8L on chase debut. Maybe more impressive as Johnnywho has already had a winning chase debut under his belt too.
Then went to win the G1 Kauto Star NTO on Boxing Day. Superstar in the making.
Such a shame he then missed Cheltenham and Aintree last year with injury but he came right back in to it with his win in the Graduation Chase at Haydock before winning the King George ahead of Gaelic Warrior, Jango Baie, Banbridge and Fact To File. Super strong. Was so gutsy to win that and you can tell he wants it.
Hes probably improving the most in the field and should appreciate the return to Cheltenham and I think he wins it!
It would be so great for Pauling/Jones to win their first gold cups too.
I’ve got in an each way multi and I’ll have a win single on him on the course.
Anyone else with me on him?
Anyone super keen on another?
16:40) Hunters Chase
Class2 Hunter Chase over 3m2f.
Basically a gold cup for the amateur jockeys… and it’s traditionally amateur / PTP trainers (although some of the big dog trainers do flood the field with entrants each time).
Not a huge fan of this race myself.
It’s On The Line has came second in this the last last 3 years running which is crazy. He’s also won the Punchestown version in those three years too. Madness. Rightful favourite. However he was turned over in his most recent PTP and I’d rather take on.
Maybe with Wonderwall who won this last year. He’s fresh from his PTP win in November (similar route as last year) and would surely have been the goal ever since and at 13/2 seems worth an each way bet.
Anyone got one they really like? I’d be open to changing my mind or playing two each way bets on the course.
Class2 Hunter Chase over 3m2f.
Basically a gold cup for the amateur jockeys… and it’s traditionally amateur / PTP trainers (although some of the big dog trainers do flood the field with entrants each time).
Not a huge fan of this race myself.
It’s On The Line has came second in this the last last 3 years running which is crazy. He’s also won the Punchestown version in those three years too. Madness. Rightful favourite. However he was turned over in his most recent PTP and I’d rather take on.
Maybe with Wonderwall who won this last year. He’s fresh from his PTP win in November (similar route as last year) and would surely have been the goal ever since and at 13/2 seems worth an each way bet.
Anyone got one they really like? I’d be open to changing my mind or playing two each way bets on the course.
17:20) Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle
Class2 hurdle over 2m4f.
The mash race of the festival!
This race has been a plotjob race for superstars in recent years it’s actually crazy. Galopin Des Champs, Banbridge and Woodhoh to name a few. Crazy.
Who this year though? I’m really not sure.
Recent stats would suggest finding a younger and less exposed horse would be the way but I think I’m going to do the opposite and go with Nurse Susan. She’s won 2 handicaps over C&D and back on better ground today should go close at 18/1. Small each way single.
Who is everyone else going for?
Class2 hurdle over 2m4f.
The mash race of the festival!
This race has been a plotjob race for superstars in recent years it’s actually crazy. Galopin Des Champs, Banbridge and Woodhoh to name a few. Crazy.
Who this year though? I’m really not sure.
Recent stats would suggest finding a younger and less exposed horse would be the way but I think I’m going to do the opposite and go with Nurse Susan. She’s won 2 handicaps over C&D and back on better ground today should go close at 18/1. Small each way single.
Who is everyone else going for?
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