Arielle Selya Profile picture
Mar 13 9 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Some encouraging news for THR science! 🎉

A deeply flawed article on e-cigarettes & cancer has just been retracted, following a letter to the editor criticizing the paper. 👇

@RetractionWatch

Original article: doi.org/10.1016/j.jcpo…Image
2) The original article was a systematic review which concluded:

"E-cigarette use may be associated with an increased risk of certain cancers, including cervical and breast cancer. However, the evidence remains inconclusive, and more rigorous longitudinal studies are needed"
3) However, as Miguel & Steffensen (who consult to RAI) pointed out in a letter to the editor, there were many severe flaws:

1⃣ There were large (and undisclosed) deviations from the preregistered protocol for the search:

(Below is my summary, not from the article) Image
4) 2⃣ The stated search criteria was supposed to capture nonsmokers only... (a good idea to avoid confounding by smoking history)

... but the paper includes comparisons with smokers, which means the search criteria were changed and/or not described properly.
5) 3⃣ The original article mis-categorized studies it reviewed, claiming that biomarker or inflammatory studies were "case-control studies" of cancer incidence: Image
6) It's also not clear whether there is n=1 or n=2 cross-sectional studies in the review.

This is inconsistent in different parts of the paper. One of these studies is a retracted paper: Image
7) 4⃣ The original article omits key limitations of the review and the underlying primary studies: Image
8) 5⃣ Finally, there were glaring inconsistencies in even the most basic numbers reported: Image
9) The editor-in-chief's retraction note echoes all of these major flaws.

This was not raised in the criticism or retraction note, but given the weird numeric mismatches, I have to wonder if parts of the original review were AI-generated.

Kudos to all involved! 🙌

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More from @ArielleSelya

Jan 23
🚨New paper: replication study🚨

Li et al. reported an assoc. between e-cig use & chronic kidney disease (CKD): doi.org/10.1186/s12889…

We identify several flaws in the analysis & find no link to e-cig use after more precisely adjusting for smoking history.

Disclosures: This is our own work; not overseen or funded by our clients or employers (Pinney, Juul, etc)Image
2) We first attempted to replicate Li et al.'s analysis of NHANES data.

We could not replicate even their sample size.

Li et al. reported N=872, but we got N=7139 after following their Methods section verbatim (see plot).

A ~10-fold discrepancy -- Not off to a good start!😵‍💫 Image
3) Starting with the basics, we looked at CKD rates among e-cig users vs. non-users.

We got approximately the same rate of CKD in non-users (18.4% vs. 18.8%)...

But a ~4-fold discrepancy in the CKD rate among e-cig users (8.4% vs. 33.5%)! Image
Read 15 tweets
May 14, 2025
2 days, 2 new articles calling into the conclusion of a 2024 meta-analysis and systematic review on apparent health effects associated w/ e-cigarette use.

Lessons for how to analyze to reduce bias & confounding 🧵👇
2) Background:

Original systematic review by Glantz et al. examined a variety of health outcomes in relation to e-cig use and dual use, concluding:

evidence.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/EV…Image
3) Shortly after this was published, two letters to the editor followed:

Cummings et al.:
- E-cigs are recent & mostly used by people <40, but diseases are in older people after long exposures
- Didn't account for smoking history

Full exchange here: evidence.nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
Read 12 tweets
Jan 29, 2025
Mini 🧵on recent literature showing the importance of flavored e-cigs

1) Secondary analysis of last year's Auer et al. RCT, where flavor choice was up to participants.

Fruit flavors were more common among those who stopped smoking:

doi.org/10.18332/tpc/1…Image
2) Secondary analysis of the Wagoner et al. 2023 RCT (which also allowed choice of flavors) showed:

- Only 5% used only tobacco flavor
- Those who used non-tobacco flavors were more likely to continue using e-cigs, reduce cig consump, and (maybe) switch:

doi.org/10.1016/j.addb…Image
3) An analysis of ITC Canada found that fruit flavor was most common among adults who used e-cigs to quit:

"68% of Canadian adults who attempted to quit smoking used flavours that would be prohibited under Health Canada's flavour restrictions proposal"

doi.org/10.24095/hpcdp…
Read 4 tweets
Jul 2, 2024
🚨 1) My new commentary with Martino Ruggieri & @RiccardoPolosa at @CoeharUnict on different definitions of youth e-cig use, evaluating pros and cons of each and making rec's.

frontiersin.org/journals/publi…
Image
2) See disclosures in image below, but this paper reflects our own opinions and was not supported or overseen by our funders. Image
3) Reducing youth use of tobacco & nicotine products is important and requires accurately tracking prevalence trends.

But, "e-cig use" is defined differently across studies, and some measures may not be relevant to health harms.

Let's explore 👇
Read 14 tweets
Jun 27, 2024
Master🧵of all my 's 🧵on THR science.

Most (but not all) are my own studies.

Disclosures: Through Pinney Associates, I consult for JUUL. I also consult for CoEHAR which rec'd funding from FSFW (now Global Action to End Smoking). My prior academic research motivated this shift.
2) Gateway commentary, on evidence and alternative explanations of the e-cig gateway hypothesis:


Image
3) My paper analyzing PATH data examining shifts in brand use, device type, and flavors after 2019/2020 removal of flavored pod-based products:


Image
Read 15 tweets
Jun 7, 2024
1) 🚨 My new commentary on the gateway hypothesis (GH) is now published.

The paper is aimed at a lay audience to explain the evidence for and against GH.

Stay to the end & I'll ask your thoughts!

Full text here: link.springer.com/article/10.118…
Image
2) Evidence for GH is based on individual-level survey data showing that youth who use e-cigs are more likely to also smoke cigarettes.

Strengths: this happens with the right time sequence (e-cigs first, then cigs), and has plausible mechanisms (e.g., becoming nic-dependent).
3) But, this doesn't mean e-cigs *cause* youth to smoke cigs when they otherwise wouldn't have.

The alternate explanation is "common liability" (CL), which says that pre-existing risk factors (e.g. social env., mental health, personality traits, etc.) explain both behaviors.
Read 12 tweets

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