Thread by @ChrisMurphyCT

It’s crystal clear now that Trump has lost control of this war. He badly misjudged Iran’s ability to retaliate. The region is on fire.

1/ I’m going to explain to you in this🧵what I’ve learned - in part from closed door briefings - about the four biggest current crises.

2/ CRISIS ONE: Trump believed Iran would not close the Strait of Hormuz. He was wrong. And now oil prices are spiking.

If the Strait stays closed, a global recession will result. It actually may already be too late. Gas prices are the first to spike, but food prices are next.

2/ Right now, Trump has no plan to reopen the Strait. And a plan may not exist.

The assets Iran uses to harass and attack tankers - thousands of small drones, speed boats and mines - cannot be eliminated. They are too numerous, too spread out and hidden. foxnews.com/world/iran-dep…

3/ What about naval escorts for tankers? This is a possibility, but it’s harder than you think.

First, it would require our entire navy. 100 tankers need escorting each day.

Second, if we can’t destroy the mines and drones, our ships are at risk too. thehill.com/homenews/senat…

4/ CRISIS TWO: We can destroy Iran’s missiles but not all their drones, and war today is drone war.

Iran can hit oil sites in the region indefinitely because they posses so many cheap, weaponized drones.

And they are. They blew up a critical Oman oil depot two days ago.

5/ If Trump paid any attention to the Ukraine War he would have noticed how warfare has changed. But he didn’t. And he blundered.

Worse, the Gulf states are running out of interceptors to stop Iranian missiles and drones - meaning that soon more oil sites will be vulnerable.

6/ CRISIS THREE: A broader, regional war is breaking out as Iranian proxies in Lebanon hit Israel and those in Iraq target the U.S.. Israel is now threatening a massive ground invasion of Lebanon, which could become its own new crisis.
wsj.com/world/middle-e…

7/ Other potential flash points lurk. So far, the Houthis in Yemen have been relatively quiet. Probably not for long. They can project power into the Red Sea.

For Syria, this is the worst time for Trump to strike Iran. Syria could explode again. csis.org/analysis/war-i…

8/ CRISIS FOUR: Trump has no endgame. Iran and its proxies can create chaos indefinitely.

So what’s next? A ground invasion?This would be Armageddon. Thousands of dead Americans.

Declare false victory? Then the new Iranian hardliners in charge just rebuild what we destroyed.

9/ All of this was totally foreseeable. Frankly, it’s why previous presidents weren’t so stupid to start a war like this.

Trump has lost control of the war. His best course now is to cut his losses and end it. That’s the only way to prevent an even bigger disaster.