1/ Bloodbath in gold miners today. Everyone's panicking.
$GDX down 31.5% from the highs
But let's put this in context — bull markets only.
Here's what history actually says about corrections in precious metals miners during gold bull markets. 🧵
$GDX down 31.5% from the highs
But let's put this in context — bull markets only.
Here's what history actually says about corrections in precious metals miners during gold bull markets. 🧵
2/ 1970s bull market (the BGMI index, predecessor to XAU):
Gold corrected 47% in 1974. Miners dropped ~55-60%.
The financial press declared the gold bull dead.
Gold then went on to $850. Miners returned 1,247% over the full cycle.
Every. Single. Time.
Gold corrected 47% in 1974. Miners dropped ~55-60%.
The financial press declared the gold bull dead.
Gold then went on to $850. Miners returned 1,247% over the full cycle.
Every. Single. Time.
3/ 2001–2011 bull market:
• 2004: HUI -35% mid-bull
• 2006: HUI -31% in just over a month
• 2008: GDX/HUI -70% (liquidity crisis — everything got sold)
Yet gold went from $250 → $1,900.
The 2008 crash was the ultimate within-bull shakeout.
And it was still a shakeout.
• 2004: HUI -35% mid-bull
• 2006: HUI -31% in just over a month
• 2008: GDX/HUI -70% (liquidity crisis — everything got sold)
Yet gold went from $250 → $1,900.
The 2008 crash was the ultimate within-bull shakeout.
And it was still a shakeout.
4/ 2016–present bull market:
• 2016 post-peak: GDX -45%
• 2018: GDX -30%
• 2020 COVID: GDX -42%
• 2022 rate hike cycle: GDX -45%
Today's drawdown from ATH: ~32%
This is not an anomaly. This is the price of admission.
• 2016 post-peak: GDX -45%
• 2018: GDX -30%
• 2020 COVID: GDX -42%
• 2022 rate hike cycle: GDX -45%
Today's drawdown from ATH: ~32%
This is not an anomaly. This is the price of admission.
5/ The pattern is clear:
Intra-bull corrections in miners average 30–45%.
And unlike 2008 or 2022, the macro thesis hasn't just held — it's gotten stronger.
War. Debt. De-dollarization. Central bank gold buying.
Next: inflation supercycle driven by oil.
Intra-bull corrections in miners average 30–45%.
And unlike 2008 or 2022, the macro thesis hasn't just held — it's gotten stronger.
War. Debt. De-dollarization. Central bank gold buying.
Next: inflation supercycle driven by oil.
6/ Today I added to core positions into the carnage:
$PX.v $TBK.v $BMM.v $PNTR.v $MGG.v
Order books are thin. Almost nothing for sale. A handful of paper hands setting the price.
History says this is where bull market wealth gets built.
Not lost.
$PX.v $TBK.v $BMM.v $PNTR.v $MGG.v
Order books are thin. Almost nothing for sale. A handful of paper hands setting the price.
History says this is where bull market wealth gets built.
Not lost.
7/ How to build serious position size in TSXV juniors without moving the stock against yourself:
Layered iceberg stink bids.
Set your full target size. Divide into 4-6 tranches staggered 3-18% below market. Hide everything behind minimum visible lots. GTC. Walk away. the book is allready thin your job is to be the quiet standing bid that catches forced sellers, margin calls, and stop-loss triggers. You can't react fast enough in real time on a $0.30 stock. The orders have to be already there.
Layered iceberg stink bids.
Set your full target size. Divide into 4-6 tranches staggered 3-18% below market. Hide everything behind minimum visible lots. GTC. Walk away. the book is allready thin your job is to be the quiet standing bid that catches forced sellers, margin calls, and stop-loss triggers. You can't react fast enough in real time on a $0.30 stock. The orders have to be already there.
8/ The hardest part: don't cancel when it gets scary.
When the stock falls through your -12% layer and looks like freefall, every instinct says pull the bid.
That's exactly wrong.
When the stock falls through your -12% layer and looks like freefall, every instinct says pull the bid.
That's exactly wrong.
9/ The obsession with catching the exact bottom is a retail trap.
To build any meaningful position in a Canadian TSXV junior, you need to participate in the daily volume for several days running.
That means some fills will be higher than the low. Some lower. Doesn't matter.
To build any meaningful position in a Canadian TSXV junior, you need to participate in the daily volume for several days running.
That means some fills will be higher than the low. Some lower. Doesn't matter.
10/ What matters is that when the dust settles, you own the size you wanted at an average price that made sense.
Sow the seeds now. Harvest later.
Days like today — thin volume, wide spreads, paper hands puking — are when positions get built that change portfolios.
Sow the seeds now. Harvest later.
Days like today — thin volume, wide spreads, paper hands puking — are when positions get built that change portfolios.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
