Thread by @ABlinken

(1/10) @realDonaldTrump cited me as supporting his attack on Iran and expressing regret we didn’t do it during the Biden Administration. Except I didn’t.

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/2036962366584480251

(2/10) For what I did say, see the clips below.

(3/10) In short: President Trump made a terrible decision to tear up the Iran nuclear deal (“JCPOA”) in 2017 and replace it with nothing. The Obama Administration put Iran’s nuclear program in a box, President Trump let it out.

(4/10) What would have happened if President Trump had just left the JCPOA in place? When the JCPOA expired, it could be extended or renegotiated, as with most arms control agreements. If Iran refused, the U.S. would still retain the military option, with a lot more information about Iran’s program, because of the most intrusive inspections ever.

(5/10) Now, we have to be able to hold multiple ideas in our heads at the same time. Once our armed forces are engaged in conflict we should all be pulling for their safety and success. Is it a good thing the Ayatollah who inflicted so much suffering on the Iranian people (and wrought so much violence around the world, including on Americans) is gone, Iran’s missile arsenal is diminished, and its nuclear program “re-obliterated” (since apparently it wasn’t “obliterated” in June)? Yes. But to what ends, at what cost, and for how long?

(6/10) So far, we’ve traded an 86-year-old Ayatollah Khamenei for a 56-year-old Ayatollah Khamenei, empowered hardliners, and sidelined pragmatists. The regime could fall in five days or five years. And to be replaced by what?

(7/10) Iran apparently retains at least 5-10 bombs worth of uranium enriched to 60% and probably some hundreds of centrifuges to further enrich it to weapons grade. It can rebuild missiles over time and drones more quickly.

(8/10) The failure to anticipate and prepare for Iran weaponizing the Strait of Hormuz puts us literally at the bottom of the barrel. Markets (oil, LNG, stocks, bonds, fertilizer, helium) and munitions (offensive and defensive) will dictate when President Trump feels compelled to declare victory and walk away, but with Iran controlling the Strait. Maybe a negotiation can fix that, but with what concessions to Iran? Or we can double down, at huge risk.

(9/10) Meanwhile, 13 American servicemembers have lost their lives and hundreds more have been wounded. The Iranian people are still under the fist of a highly repressive regime. Iran and Russia are getting an oil bonanza. America is more isolated than ever from our closest allies and partners. And billions more U.S. taxpayer dollars are being spent on another war in the Middle East (with an additional $200 billion requested from the Pentagon to fund this war). Not to mention the failure to make the case to the American people for why this was necessary, in their interest, or worth risking American lives for.

(10/10) So no, I would not have done it. For the record.