If this ceasefire winds up happening, the bold Iranian gambit to trade much of their senior leadership, most of their navy, at least half their missile launchers, the lives of thousands of security personnel, various bridges and rail lines, steel and petrochemical plants, their deterrence, their nuclear infrastructure, their air defenses, and the ability to use Dubai as a sanctions evasion hub for the possibility of charging tolls for merchant shipping on the Strait of Hormuz will have been a titanic failure
x.com/Osint613/statu…
x.com/Osint613/statu…
The Islamic Republic didn't spike oil prices enough to trigger a global recession. They've conceded their tollbooth scheme in Hormuz. Their resilience and Legomen videos impressed western experts but bought America and Israel the time needed to destroy nearly everything in their original target bank
Meanwhile Tehran's Lebanese proxy lost a decent amount of territory to the Israelis while their Yemeni and Iraqi proxies were largely irrelevant to the fighting. Iranian ballsitic missiles failed to kill a single Israeli soldier and hit targets of somewhat lesser value than back in June. Over the past six weeks, Iran has probably helped the Israelis sell billions in missile defense systems...
US and and Israel now have a very good idea of where the uranium is; Iranian breakout scenarios all involve speculation about underground enrichment facilities whose existence isn't yet proven. Even if these facilities do exist, back in June Israel destroyed the only known Iranian facility for converting enriched uranium to bomb fuel.
Aspects of the weaponization and delivery program—scienfitific facilities, individual scientists and procurement officials, space launch-related infrastructure—have been targeted over the past month. The fact the Israelis attacked relatively low-value stuff, like a yellowcake production plant and the Arak reactor, suggest to me that they've destroyed an awful lot of that stuff that really mattered to building and delivering nukes
x.com/just1numbers/s…
Aspects of the weaponization and delivery program—scienfitific facilities, individual scientists and procurement officials, space launch-related infrastructure—have been targeted over the past month. The fact the Israelis attacked relatively low-value stuff, like a yellowcake production plant and the Arak reactor, suggest to me that they've destroyed an awful lot of that stuff that really mattered to building and delivering nukes
x.com/just1numbers/s…
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