Thread by @TimothyDSnyder

With this settlement the US is worse off in every way than it was before the war; Iran is strengthened by the huge new tolls in the Straits of Hormuz, paid by the whole world. (1/14)

I will lay out the strategic defeat but I want to make clear that it is a symptom of the basic problem of injustice and inequality. (2/14)

Consider — where are those new tolls going? To Iran’s murderous regime. Is it too much to wonder, though, whether a portion reaches the pockets of US negotiators or other Americans? (3/14)

Only a hypothesis, of course. But that would be consistent with Trump foreign policy — indifference to Americans, indifference to allies and the world, easy wealth for people close to the regime. We know that oligarchs have profited from the war in other ways. (4/14)

One oligarch certainly enriched by this nonsense war was Putin, for whom this was an economic bonanza. I will be very surprised if the US reintroduces the sanctions on Russia it pretextually lifted. (5/14)

Strategically this is also a bonanza for Putin. His main ally in the Near East defeats the US with his help — and while the US helps him help Iran against the US! And meanwhile the US slanders Ukraine, which was actually helping the US. (6/14)

Meanwhile the American vice-president is in Budapest to back up Orbán, Putin’s main ally in Europe, and repeating Russian slanders about Ukraine. Vance and Orbán are both part of a far right network ultimately funded by Russia. (7/14)

Russian power is limited, and Russia is losing in Ukraine now; but it is managing to exploit US power and bring the US down to its level. That is how it operates (see "Road to Unfreedom"). (8/14)
penguinrandomhouse.com/books/570367/t…

It was always incoherent to back Russia while fighting Russia’s ally Iran. The end result is that Russia and Iran emerge stronger and the US emerges weaker. (9/14)

Trump does not care about the state (see link). He cares about himself and is moved by conversations among a few people. The result is always that the wealthy few and the dictatorial few win and America loses and most people in America and elsewhere lose. (10/14)
snyder.substack.com/p/the-oligarch…

Indeed, losing for others is Trump’s superpower. His magic is that his people stick to him like gamblers, thinking that somehow each loss signals the next win. (11/14)

But the strategic losses are only the beginning. There are also moral, economic, political losses. The US cannot keep losing everything indefinitely. (12/14)

The war, horrible as it is in itself, signals the basic problem: abuse of power enabled by wealth inequality and media monopolies. Trump will fall and these issues can be addressed. But only if we see how deep is the rot and how pressing is the need. (13/14)

In other words, the war is one more reason to support opposition candidates, to organize, and to protest. May Day is the next big chance for Americans to do so. (14/14)
indivisible.org/events/may-day…