Thread by @Pharmaheretic

Here are some thoughts on why any JCPOA-type agreement between USA and Iran is very unlikely- even if the traitorous "liberals" in Iran mange to sign it. (1/n)

Firstly, even though the current elected government in Iran is filled with these "liberal" traitors, they have lost most of their previous public support in that country. (2/n)

The two wars within past year have been the capping events for a long trend of these "liberals" being unable to deliver on their promises of neoliberal prosperity and normalization of relations with West. (3/n)

But even more importantly, these two events have driven a permanent rift between these "liberals" and the IRGC rank and file. The later now correctly perceive the liberals as dangerous traitors rather than greedypeople with some difference of opinion. (4/n)

The "liberals" may have barely won in the previous election, but it the IRGC (esp its rank and file) who have the weapons and organization to make things happen. (5/n)

The old IRGC moderates are gone and so there is nothing to really stop the IRGC from being the dominating power behind the curtain- not unlike countries such as Pakistan and Turkey in first few decades after Ataturk. (6/n)

This becomes even more relevant as USA has shown itself to be completely agreement incapable. The "liberals" main claim for assuming power rested on their ability to negotiate with USA. But what happens if everyone can see that real negotiations are not possible. (7/n)

At this point "liberals" such as Pezeshkian, Araghchi, Zarif, Rouhani are now widely seen as some combination of idiots and traitors. Most of the public support they had in past has evaporated and few will miss them. (8/n)

Regardless of what they sign or agree to, most of the "liberal" leaders and their stooges have no realistic future in an Iran that is still functional. (9/n)

Now let us talk about how things in rest of world have changed since early 2010s. The biggest change has been a significant decay of relationship between USA and Russia + China. (10/n)

Before 2014, and 2022, a significant percentage of Russian elites wanted normalization with West and were willing to help USA with JCPOA, Sanctions against Iran etc. (11/n)

While many of boomers in power in Russia still harbor a soft spot for USA, the ground realities have changed to such a degree that normalization and cooperation with USA is not realistically possible. (12/n)

China too was willing to play along with American demands in the early 2010s, but has changed a lot since 2017 and become much stronger economically. They also understand that USA has to be destroyed as a superpower. (13/n)

To put it another way, most of the independent consequential support for JCPOA type agreements, economic sanctions against Iran etc has disappeared. This has occurred alongside "liberals" in Iran now being seen as ineffectual and dangerous traitors. (14/n)

So.. regardless of what the current "liberal" traitors in Iran agree to, the die has been cast and there is not going to be a return to the JCPOA world. Of course, there might be some internal turmoil in that country as those "liberals" have to be removed from power. (15/n)

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