The oil crisis is worse than anything in modern history.
Nobody is panicking.
That’s the problem. 🧵
Nobody is panicking.
That’s the problem. 🧵
The world uses 100 million barrels of oil per day.
Right now, 15–20 million of them are missing.
That gap is larger than the entire daily oil consumption of the United States.
And you haven’t felt it yet. Here’s why 👇
Right now, 15–20 million of them are missing.
That gap is larger than the entire daily oil consumption of the United States.
And you haven’t felt it yet. Here’s why 👇
Every country has been burning through emergency stockpiles to mask the shortage.
JP Morgan & Kpler data shows the last Gulf shipments reached their destinations between April 8–19.
That window is now closed.
The buffer is gone. The real shock starts now.
JP Morgan & Kpler data shows the last Gulf shipments reached their destinations between April 8–19.
That window is now closed.
The buffer is gone. The real shock starts now.
Let’s put this in context:
1973 Embargo → 7% supply offline → prices +300%
1990 Gulf War → 7% supply offline → prices +75%
2026 Hormuz → 15–20% supply offline → prices +120% futures, +220% spot
This isn’t a repeat of history. It’s in a category of its own.
1973 Embargo → 7% supply offline → prices +300%
1990 Gulf War → 7% supply offline → prices +75%
2026 Hormuz → 15–20% supply offline → prices +120% futures, +220% spot
This isn’t a repeat of history. It’s in a category of its own.
The stock market is at ALL-TIME HIGHS.
Main Street consumer sentiment is at historic lows.
One of them is wrong.
Historically, it’s never been the person filling up the tank.
Main Street consumer sentiment is at historic lows.
One of them is wrong.
Historically, it’s never been the person filling up the tank.
Oil is in everything. Not just your gas tank.
Fertilizer prices are already spiking — that hits food prices in ~6 months.
Gasoline is at $313. CPI at 3.3% and rising.
Last time gasoline spiked like this, inflation followed with a lag.
Fertilizer prices are already spiking — that hits food prices in ~6 months.
Gasoline is at $313. CPI at 3.3% and rising.
Last time gasoline spiked like this, inflation followed with a lag.
By summer:
⛽ Gas — higher
🛒 Groceries — higher
🏭 Everything made in a factory — higher
The best case scenario from history gave us a -21% market crash and a recession.
Today the market is pricing zero correction and zero recession.
Someone is very wrong.
⛽ Gas — higher
🛒 Groceries — higher
🏭 Everything made in a factory — higher
The best case scenario from history gave us a -21% market crash and a recession.
Today the market is pricing zero correction and zero recession.
Someone is very wrong.
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