$OMC path to $11/sh 2026(e) FCF
Pre-acquisition $OMC was doing ~$1,500MM FCF and $IPG ~$1,000
= $2,500 - 120 from divestitures
$2,380
2026(e) cost synergies: $900
Cost to get savings: $250
= $650 * 60% to FCF = $390
$2,380 + $390 = $2,770
EOY 2026 s/o: 256.6MM
= $10.80/sh
Pre-acquisition $OMC was doing ~$1,500MM FCF and $IPG ~$1,000
= $2,500 - 120 from divestitures
$2,380
2026(e) cost synergies: $900
Cost to get savings: $250
= $650 * 60% to FCF = $390
$2,380 + $390 = $2,770
EOY 2026 s/o: 256.6MM
= $10.80/sh
Or take combined OMC + IPG Adj. EBITDA reported in 2025 $OMC presentation of $4,061.7MM and back out ITDA — you’ll get ~$2,440MM FCF
Or read the S-4 where they have (un)levered FCF estimates (higher estimates than we’re using here)
Or read the S-4 where they have (un)levered FCF estimates (higher estimates than we’re using here)
Or start at $23,100.9MM combined rev est net of planned dispositions.
15% ebitda margin
= $3,465 EBITDA - $392.7 D&A (1.7% of rev) = $3,072.3 - $235 int exp = $2,837 * 26% effective tax rate = $2,100 excl synergies
$OMC 2028(e) FCF: $3,000-3,280MM
@ 236.5MM s/o = 5.5-6x FCF
15% ebitda margin
= $3,465 EBITDA - $392.7 D&A (1.7% of rev) = $3,072.3 - $235 int exp = $2,837 * 26% effective tax rate = $2,100 excl synergies
$OMC 2028(e) FCF: $3,000-3,280MM
@ 236.5MM s/o = 5.5-6x FCF
236.5 s/o assumes another 10% buyback this year (stated / around current prices) and then 4% in 2027 and 2028.
And all that assumes zero growth (but full synergies).
And all that assumes zero growth (but full synergies).
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