Trying to use third-world immigration as a tool to fix the dependency ratio is retarded for several reasons. Just conceptually, third-world populations are unproductive, which is why third-world countries are poor in the first place. Net contributions of immigrant groups are very stable across destination countries, and they track national wealth in their countries of origin. You have to be very selective to get immigrants who end up being net contributors, but your ability to be selective, by definition, decreases with the proportion of immigrants you admit.
The amount of immigration you'd need to actually make a dent in the country's avg age is also just gargantuan:
arctotherium.substack.com/p/immigration-…
"Assuming immigrant age-structure and fertility remained constant, the difference in working-age percentage of the population in 2060 between zero net migration and 2019 levels (1.1 million people per year) in the United States is… 2% (57% vs 59%).
The picture for the European Union is similar. The difference in age-dependency ratios between zero non-EU immigration and existing levels is tiny: 118:100 vs 114:100 in 2060. By comparison, the 2015 level is 76:100. The total effect of all non-EU immigration on aging means that instead of this ratio increasing by 55% over 45 years, it will increase by 50%.
Because immigrants age, trying to keep age-dependency ratios constant this way is a fool’s errand. This can reach farcical levels; maintaining 1995 South Korean age-dependency ratios would require about 100 million immigrants… per year, for a total of 5.1 billion by 2050."
By the way:
People have an enormous own-race preference in dating. When online dating apps were introduced, the increased optionality and decreased restriction by geography acted to increase racial sorting.
nber.org/system/files/w…
The racial preference is so large that only 10% of marital homophily is attributable to residential segregation:
ideas.repec.org/p/cen/wpaper/2…
As a consequence, when you make an area more diverse, people just stop breeding instead of lowering their standards. This accounts for 20%-44% of the country's fertility decline since 1970. Solid instrumental variable design using immigration shocks:
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
The amount of immigration you'd need to actually make a dent in the country's avg age is also just gargantuan:
arctotherium.substack.com/p/immigration-…
"Assuming immigrant age-structure and fertility remained constant, the difference in working-age percentage of the population in 2060 between zero net migration and 2019 levels (1.1 million people per year) in the United States is… 2% (57% vs 59%).
The picture for the European Union is similar. The difference in age-dependency ratios between zero non-EU immigration and existing levels is tiny: 118:100 vs 114:100 in 2060. By comparison, the 2015 level is 76:100. The total effect of all non-EU immigration on aging means that instead of this ratio increasing by 55% over 45 years, it will increase by 50%.
Because immigrants age, trying to keep age-dependency ratios constant this way is a fool’s errand. This can reach farcical levels; maintaining 1995 South Korean age-dependency ratios would require about 100 million immigrants… per year, for a total of 5.1 billion by 2050."
By the way:
People have an enormous own-race preference in dating. When online dating apps were introduced, the increased optionality and decreased restriction by geography acted to increase racial sorting.
nber.org/system/files/w…
The racial preference is so large that only 10% of marital homophily is attributable to residential segregation:
ideas.repec.org/p/cen/wpaper/2…
As a consequence, when you make an area more diverse, people just stop breeding instead of lowering their standards. This accounts for 20%-44% of the country's fertility decline since 1970. Solid instrumental variable design using immigration shocks:
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
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