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May 3 13 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Mid Scotland and Fife

Constituencies:
Mid Fife is a tale of two halves with a Labour / SNP split along the Fife coast and a strong Conservative presence in Perthshire. Not to forget the Lib Dem stronghold of North Fife.
Cowdenbeath
David John Barratt - Scottish National Party (SNP)
James Stuart Calder - Liberal Democrats
Mark Davies - Reform UK
Laurie Moffat - Alliance to Liberate Scotland and Sovereignty
Fiona Sword - Labour Party
Darren Watt - Conservative and Unionist Party

Local councillor, Barratt is well placed to hold Annabelle Ewing’s old seat.
Dunfermline
Lauren Buchanan-Quigley - Liberal Democrats
Thomas Heald - Conservative and Unionist Party
Otto Inglis - Reform UK
Joe Long - Labour Party
Shirley-Anne Somerville - Scottish National Party (SNP)

Shirley-Anne Somerville looks set to return
Fife North East
John Beare - Scottish National Party (SNP)
Elizabeth Carr-Ellis - Labour Party
William Docherty - Reform UK
Willie Rennie - Liberal Democrats
Edward Sheasby - Conservative and Unionist Party

Rennie is expected to retain his seat with a thumping majority.
Kirkcaldy
Claire Baker - Labour and Co-operative Party
Fraser John Ashmore Graham - Liberal Democrats
Heather Greig - Conservative and Unionist Party
Julie MacDougall - Reform UK
David Herd Torrance - Scottish National Party (SNP)

We would love to see @ClaireBaker_lab, one of the Labour MSPs who voted against GRR take this seat but polling suggests that Torrance will hold on.
Mid Fife and Glenrothes
Jenny Gilruth - Scottish National Party (SNP)
Sacha Haworth - Reform UK
Niamh Heald - Conservative and Unionist Party
Afifa Khanam - Labour Party
Ed Scotcher - Liberal Democrats

Arch Sturgeonite Gilruth looks to be safe, although MiC sees Reform picking up support.
Perthshire North
Angela Bailey - Labour Party
Murdo Fraser - Conservative and Unionist Party
Claire McLaren - Liberal Democrats
Kenneth Morton - Reform UK
John Ramsay Swinney - Scottish National Party (SNP)

Look, we can but dream that @murdo_fraser unseats the First Minister!
Perthshire South and Kinross-shire
Amanda Clark - Liberal Democrats
Jim Fairlie - Scottish National Party (SNP)
Roz McCall - Conservative and Unionist Party
Helen McDade - Reform UK
Luke Thomson - Labour Party

Fairlie is one of the two SNP GRR rebels who remain in the party seeking re-election. He has also not signed the Out for Indy trans pledge thetimes.com/uk/scotland/ar…
His main challenge will come from the Conservatives.
Stirling
Stephen Kerr - Conservative and Unionist Party
Kainde Manji - Labour Party
Jill Reilly - Liberal Democrats
Alyn Edward Smith - Scottish National Party (SNP)
Rachael Wright - Reform UK

“Daddy Bear” Smith is hoping to win for the SNP in Evelyn Tweed’s old seat, two years after losing the Westminster constituency of Stirling and Strathallan to Labour. @RealStephenKerr, the man whose Westminster seat he took in 2019, will be looking for revenge and we'd love to see him get it!
Regional List - Mid Scotland and Fife
List votes top up the constituency votes. Candidates from political parties are ordered, so if you vote for a party on the list, it’s useful to know who the top candidates are.

Conservative: Both polls predict just one seat on the list, a big change of fortune for a party which held 4 regional seats in the last session. One seat will ensure the return of Fraser but would mean we lose Kerr (prev on the central list), McCall & Alexander Stewart who is 4th on the list.
Murdo Fraser
Stephen Kerr
Roz McCall

Labour: 2-3 seats.
Claire Baker
Joe Long
Fiona Sword

Liberal Democrats:
Claire McLaren
Sally Pattle
Ed Scotcher

Scottish National Party (SNP): 0 seats
John Ramsay Swinney
Shirley-Anne Somerville
Fiona Law

Reform UK: 2 seats
Helen McDade
Julie MacDougall
Rachael Wright

Greens: 1 seat
Mark Ruskell
Mags Hall
Caitlin Ripley
Other List Parties:
Advance UK
Alliance to Liberate Scotland
Independence for Scotland Party
Independent Green Voice
Scottish Family Party
Scottish Libertarian Party
Scottish Socialist Party
Clackmannanshire and Dunblane
We missed one! With many apologies:
Keith James Brown - Scottish National Party (SNP)
Mike Collier - Reform UK
Eva Margaret Comrie - Alliance to Liberate Scotland
Suzanne Grahame - Labour Party
Sally Pattle - Liberal Democrats
Luca Scacchi - Independent
Alexander Stewart - Conservative and Unionist Party

This should be a safe hold for the SNP with the nearest challenge from Labour. We must put in a good word for Eva Comrie, not only because she's a good women, but she spotted this omission. Sorry!
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More from @ForWomenScot

May 3
West Scotland

Constituencies:
West Scotland will be one of the battlegrounds for Labour and the SNP. The other big story will be if the Conservative list vote collapses as some pundits indicate.
Clydebank and Milngavie
Claire Gallagher - Scottish Common Party
Ben Langmead - Liberal Democrats
Alix Mathieson - Conservative and Unionist Party
Marie A McNair - Scottish National Party (SNP)
Callum McNally - Labour Party
Andy White - Reform UK

A surge from Reform may ensure that McNair is safe
Cunninghame North
Ian Gibson - Alliance for Democracy and Freedom
Kenneth Gibson - Scottish National Party (SNP)
Mike Mann - Reform UK
Matthew McGowan - Labour Party
Christine Margaret Murdoch - Liberal Democrats
Ronnie Stalker - Conservative and Unionist Party

Kenny Gibson has been one of the most independently minded MSPs. He rebelled on GRR and on the Unbuyable Bill. He should hold comfortably & we would be very happy to see him back.
Read 15 tweets
May 3
South Scotland

Constituencies:
South Scotland contains the “blue wall” along the border, in recent years, the Conservatives have enjoyed good results here and now Reform will be hoping to make gains. South Scotland has seen a significant boundary change since 2021: East Lothian has gone and two central belt seats - East Kilbride and Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse - are in. The latter are relatively urban seats in a largely rural region and more likely to lean SNP/Lab
Ayr
Siobhian Brown - Scottish National Party (SNP)
Desmond Buchanan - Liberal Democrats
Sharon Dowey - Conservative and Unionist Party
Brian McGinley - Labour Party
Andrew Fleming Russell - Reform UK
Denise Sommerville - Independent
Muhammad Tufail - Scottish Common Party

Brown had several car crash interviews over hate crime and was ill-equipped to fill the ministerial shoes of Ash Regan. She was handed the poisoned chalice brief of objecting to the unbuyable bill. Brown took Ayr with a wafer thin majority over John Scott (battling health issues) in 2021. The conservatives could retake it if Reform don’t spoil the party.
Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley
Jack Clark - Liberal Democrats
Tracey Clark - Conservative and Unionist Party
Sean Davis - Independent
Katie Hagmann - Scottish National Party (SNP)
Alison Hewett - Independent
Carol Ann Mochan - Labour Party
Andrew Scott - Reform UK

Labour are the stronger rivals to SNP in this seat, which is losing MSP Elena Whitham. Labour’s @CMochan voted against the GRR and is a thoughtful advocate for wider women’s rights with a special interest in women’s health.
Read 15 tweets
May 3
North East Scotland

Constituencies:
NE Scotland has, traditionally, been dominated by SNP and the Conservatives. In a region suffering from the decline of the oil industry, Reform are hoping to make an impact and may have a shot at a constituency seat.
Aberdeen Central
Yi-Pei Chou Turvey - Liberal Democrats
Jenny Laing - Labour Party
Jack Middleton - Scottish National Party (SNP)
Stewart Whyte - Conservative and Unionist Party
James Wyllie - Reform UK

Reform may do well here, but nowhere near enough to overcome the SNP
Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine
Stephen Mark Flynn - Scottish National Party (SNP)
Liam Kerr - Conservative and Unionist Party
Iris Alexandra Leask - Independent
Matthew Lee - Labour Party
Duncan Massey - Reform UK
Mel Sullivan - Liberal Democrats

Liam Kerr ran Audrey Nicoll pretty close in 2021, but the SNP are likely to benefit from the “celebrity” impact of Westminster leader Flynn as well as Reform splitting the Conservative vote.
Read 15 tweets
May 3
Highlands and Islands

Constituencies:
The headline story of H&I is a battle between the Liberal Democrats and the SNP. However, the contest in Inverness where Fergus Ewing may thwart his erstwhile party will be worth watching!
Argyll and Bute
Callum George - Labour Party
Amanda Hampsey - Reform UK
Tommy Macpherson - Independent
Jenni Minto - Scottish National Party (SNP)
Alan Reid - Liberal Democrats
Mick Rice - Independent
Peter Wallace - Conservative and Unionist Party

Argyll and Bute is one of the safer SNP seats in the region. Jenni Minto should retain it.
Caithness, Sutherland and Ross
David Green - Liberal Democrats
Eva Kestner - Labour Party
Andrew Ross MacDonald - Alliance to Liberate Scotland and Sovereignty
Donald MacKenzie - Conservative and Unionist Party
Matt Sheppard - Advance UK
Maree Todd - Scottish National Party (SNP)
Steven Welsh - Reform UK

The Liberal Democrats look set to take Maree Todd’s seat for the first time since the 2011 boundary change. Jamie Stone was re-elected to the roughly equivalent seat in 2024 with a much increased majority over the SNP.
Read 13 tweets
Apr 30
Having looked at the manifestos, we are drilling down a bit more into the constituencies and regions. We plan to list all the candidates and puzzle out current polling.

We haven't canvased all the candidates, but thought this would be a great way for constituents - or candidates - to let our followers know where they stand. We will do a thread for each region. Please add any feed back/comments to the post relating to your constituency or region. We will share our experiences of candidates if relevant!

We have mainly drawn on the polling from YouGov and More In Common as they have looked at the constituencies. Other polls are available, so feel free to point out any data we missed!
Glasgow

Constituencies:
The 2024 general election saw Labour push back in the old Glasgow heartland, but disillusionment with UK Labour may contribute to keeping the area solidly SNP. Across the region, Reform has overtaken the Conservatives and their trajectory may result in syphoning votes from Labour rather than the SNP.
Glasgow Anniesland
Sandesh Gulhane - Conservative and Unionist Party
Eunis Jassemi - Labour Party
Colm Merrick - Scottish National Party (SNP)
Sean O'Hagan - Reform UK
James Douglas Speirs - Liberal Democrats

Anniesland was the seat of the father of the Scottish Parliament, Donald Dewar, but it’s been in the hands of the SNP since 2011. Councillor Merrick is taking the reins from outgoing SNP MSP Bill Kidd. Labour took the roughly equivalent Glasgow West seat in the General election with a massive swing but polls are still indicating an SNP hold.
Read 14 tweets
Apr 30
Having looked at the manifestos, we are drilling down a bit more into the constituencies and regions. We plan to list all the candidates and puzzle out current polling.

We haven't canvased all the candidates, but thought this would be a great way for constituents - or candidates - to let our followers know where they stand. We will do a thread for each region. Please add any feed back/comments to the post relating to your constituency or region. We will share our experiences of candidates if relevant!

We have mainly drawn on the polling from YouGov and More In Common as they have looked at the constituencies. Other polls are available, so feel free to point out any data we missed!
Edinburgh & Lothian East
Constituencies:
In recent times, the old Lothian region has been largely painted yellow with a splash of gold in Edinburgh West & red in Edinburgh South. This election, the polling is a bit tighter with Labour seeking to regain East Lothian, NE Edinburgh & Central Edinburgh. The Greens & LDs might also throw a curveball in a couple of seats. If you are thinking of voting tactically, there are opportunities.
East Lothian Coast and Lammermuirs
Miles Briggs -Conservative and Unionist Party
Morgwn Davies - Independent
Nigel Douglas - Reform UK
Tim McKay - Liberal Democrats
Paul McLennan - Scottish National Party (SNP)
Martin Whitfield- Labour Party

The old East Lothian seat has lost Tranent and has been relocated from the South Scotland region. Paul McLennan of the SNP won in 2021 with a 1,179 majority over Martin Whitfield. It was previously held by Iain Gray of Labour. YouGov predict that Labour could take this seat from the SNP

Paul McLennan sat on the LGBTI+ CPG which pushed for GRR. He introduced a motion last November with the assistance of Scottish Trans to mark Trans Day of Remembrance (he also blocked us the day after he was elected).

Both @Miles4Lothian (Con) & @_MWhitfield (Lab) were MSPs in the last Parliament.
Read 15 tweets

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