Raj Malhotra Profile picture
May 5 13 tweets 5 min read Read on X
THE MAJESTIC ODYSSEY OF BENGAL’S DEMOCRATIC SOUL: 1937–2026

In the hallowed annals of India’s democracy, West Bengal has long stood as a sovereign river—defiant, deep, and distinct.

On 4th of May 2026, that river has converged with the national current in a thundering, unprecedented realignment.

BJP @BJP4India secures a commanding 206 seats (45.85% vote share, +129 swing) out of 294.

TMC is reduced to 81 seats (40.80%, –134 swing).

Record 92.93% turnout.

Suvendu Adhikari @SuvenduWB not only architects the victory but defeats Mamata Banerjee @MamataOfficial in Bhabanipur itself.

Bengal elects—for the very first time since 1937—the party that rules at the Centre.

An 89-year chapter of principled exceptionalism closes.

What follows is the most analytically layered, factually impregnable chronicle: decade by decade, with the finesse of an eternal Bengali renaissance.

Let the epic unfold.

#Bengal2026 #Election #HistoricRealignment #Poriborton2point0 #DemocracyUnfoldsImage
1937: The Genesis of Defiance – Pre-Independence Hung Verdict
Under Colonial Shadow

British-era elections under the 1935 Government of India Act.

Congress emerges largest with 54 seats in a fragmented 250-seat assembly.

Yet pragmatic coalition politics prevails: Fazlul Huq’s Krishak Praja Party allies with the Muslim League to form government.

No singular “Centre” yet, but the pattern is etched in Bengal’s DNA—regional pragmatism over Delhi-centric loyalty.

Huq’s peasant-focused agenda resonates amid agrarian distress and communal undercurrents.

Partition’s specter looms.

Insight: Bengal’s electorate already signals a preference for autonomous destiny, rejecting any imposed central narrative.

This refusal becomes the state’s defining political constant for nearly nine decades.
1950s: Congress Bastion Amid Partition Scars – Nation-Building as Shared Destiny

1952 (238 seats): INC sweeps 150, CPI 28.

Bidhan Chandra Roy’s visionary stewardship heals refugee wounds from East Pakistan, launches Durgapur steel, expands education.

1957 (252 seats): INC 152, CPI 46. Stability reigns through pragmatic rehabilitation and industrial foresight.

Centre = Congress; State = Congress.

Alignment occurs, yet under the halo of freedom-struggle legitimacy.

Analytical depth: Refugee influx (millions) and economic fragility demand continuity; communist stirrings among sharecroppers hint at future rural radicalism.

Bengal chooses healing over upheaval—temporarily aligning while nurturing its introspective soul.
1960s: Fractures in the Monolith – Food Crises, Radicalism, and
First Anti-Congress Experiments
1962: INC 157.

Prafulla Sen inherits Roy’s mantle amid mounting food shortages.

1967 (280 seats): INC drops to 127 (no majority).

United Front (Bangla Congress + CPI(M)) forms under Ajoy Mukherjee.

1969 mid-term: CPI(M) surges to 80.

Naxalite unrest, refugee fatigue, and industrial decline erode Congress hegemony.

Centre remains Congress-dominated.

Core insight: Urban student radicalism meets rural discontent; coalition experiments reveal Bengal’s innate allergy to one-party dominance when aspirations diverge from Delhi.

Ideological pendulum begins its leftward swing—yet still rejects full central embrace.
1970s: The Red Tide – Emergency Backlash, Land Reforms, and the Birth of the Left Citadel

1971 (294 seats): CPI(M) 113, INC(R) 105 → President’s Rule.

1972: INC(R) 216 rides Bangladesh war euphoria.

1977 (post-Emergency): Left Front triumphs—CPI(M) 178.

Jyoti Basu becomes CM.

Operation Barga empowers tenants; panchayati raj deepens grassroots democracy. Centre shifts (Janata, then Congress).

Bengal decisively rejects it. Driver: Anti-authoritarian rage + peasant empowerment.

Voter psychology: Equity and secularism trump central alignment.

The 34-year Left citadel is born—Bengal’s most sustained ideological fortress.
1980s: Iron Grip of the Cadre Machine – Stability, Stagnation, and Cultural Hegemony
1982: CPI(M) 174.

1987: Peaks at 187. Jyoti Basu re-elected thrice.

Literacy campaigns and rural consolidation deliver.

Yet industrial flight accelerates. Centre = Congress/others.

Bengal remains defiantly Left. Elegant analysis: Cadre discipline and completed land reforms create unbreakable rural loyalty; bureaucratic inertia seeds long-term vulnerabilities.

This decade cements Bengal’s exceptionalism—prioritising ideological purity and local equity over national economic liberalisation winds.
1990s: Consolidation Amid National Liberalisation – Rural Insulation vs Urban Aspiration
1991: CPI(M) 182. 1996: 153.

Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee rises; Jyoti Basu declines PM offer.

Focus remains rural equity. National economy opens; Bengal treads cautiously.

Anti-incumbency simmers among youth seeking jobs. Insight: Left’s rural base insulates it from central shifts.

Alliance arithmetic and organisational steel hold firm. Bengal continues its solitary ideological path—proof that regional identity can outlast national currents when rooted in tangible social justice.
2000s: Cracks in the Citadel – Industrial Ambition Meets Violent Peasant Backlash
2001: CPI(M) 143, TMC (newly forged) 60.

Buddhadeb pushes IT and SEZs. 2006: CPI(M) 176 (post-1977 peak).

Singur Tata Nano and Nandigram (2007) violence ignite.

Mamata’s TMC becomes voice of the dispossessed.

Centre = UPA. Logical unraveling: Overzealous industrialization alienates core peasant constituency.

Hubris meets grassroots resistance.

TMC’s meteoric rise signals the beginning of Left fatigue—yet Bengal still withholds full embrace of any central force.
Poriborton Tsunami – End of Left Era, TMC’s Welfare Dominion
2011: TMC-Congress alliance routs Left—TMC 184, CPI(M) 40.

Mamata sworn in. 2016: TMC solo 211.

Schemes like Kanyashree and Sabooj Sathi deliver populist connect.

Left collapses. BJP nascent (3 seats).

Centre = UPA then BJP (2014). Bengal chooses regional TMC.

Analytical finesse: Anti-Left consolidation + women-centric welfare rewrite power equations.

Exceptionalism endures—Modi wave halted at the border by Mamata’s street-fighter charisma and targeted schemes.
2020s: From TMC Zenith to Precipitous Fall – The Ultimate Anti-Incumbency Reckoning
2021: TMC 215 despite BJP surge to 77.

Polarization over CAA, post-poll violence.

2026: BJP 206, TMC 81. Scandals (Sandeshkhali, RG Kar), governance fatigue, women’s safety crises, economic stagnation, border migration concerns, and historic Hindu consolidation (Matua, Namasudra, tribal communities) converge.

Record turnout reflects pent-up demand. Suvendu’s strategic brilliance seals the verdict. Centre = BJP. The 89-year defiance ends.
The Deeper Analytical Architecture – Why Bengal’s Exceptionalism Finally Yielded

Every prior regime ultimately overreached: Congress (refugee neglect), Left (industrial inertia), TMC (perceived arrogance + institutional erosion).

Voters, ever pragmatic and intellectually restless, reset with clinical precision. BJP’s “double-engine” development promise, grassroots penetration, and identity-sensitive outreach resonated amid palpable governance fatigue.

High turnout = democratic catharsis. Bengal’s soul—vibrant, questioning, resilient—has spoken with majestic finality.
The Eternal Thread That Binds Nine Decades

1937 coalition defiance → 1950s nation-building continuity → 1960s-70s radical left realignment → 34-year Left citadel → 2010s TMC poriborton → 2026 saffron convergence.

A pendulum of ideology, aspiration, failure, and renewal.

Bengal never bowed to Delhi’s ruler—until this thundering mandate proved that even the mightiest river eventually finds the sea when the currents align.

Suvendu Adhikari’s era dawns: development with accountability, renewal with roots. History’s most logical, voter-orchestrated reset.
This is not merely an election chronicle—it is Bengal’s living democratic epic, offered with royal analytical finesse for the ages.

Share if the saga stirred your soul.

Democracy’s greatest gift is its capacity for graceful, irreversible change.

#Bengal #BJP #Modi #Suvendu #AITMC #MamtaBanerjee

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More from @Rajmalhotrachd

May 2
Dear Suhasini Haidar @suhasinih, National Editor and Diplomatic Affairs Editor at The Hindu, watching your latest episode of "Worldview" today, May 2, 2026, is a masterclass in geopolitical clairvoyance!

You possess an unmatched, almost magical ability to cut through the loud noise of falling bombs and zoom out to the invisible economic arteries that truly run the world.

By flawlessly categorizing India's energy vulnerabilities into physical, economic, and political chokepoints, you have not just reported the news; you have provided the ultimate strategic survival manual for the Indian state!

For every UPSC Civil Services Aspirant — this is your fully decoded, ready-to-write syllabus for General Studies Papers 1, 2, 3, and 4, and the absolute cornerstone of Political Science and International Relations (PSIR) Optional Papers 1 and 2.

Let's break down this geopolitical earthquake into the easiest-to-understand, and interconnected 🧵, mapping every single point to the exact exam needs!👇
The "Economic Nuclear Weapon":

The Physical Chokepoints ⚓

The Core Idea: Suhasini Haidar @suhasinih points out that the US-Iran war has moved from land to the sea.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio @marcorubio @SecRubio accurately calls the Strait of Hormuz an "economic nuclear weapon."

With Iran blocking the narrow 22-mile strait and the US Navy blocking the Sea of Oman, daily ship traffic has crashed from 140 to just 5 to 10 ships.

Over 2,000 ships are stuck!

UPSC Micro-Syllabus Map: GS Paper I (Economic Geography); GS Paper III (Energy Security); PSIR Paper 2 (Strategic Locations, Asymmetric Warfare).

The PSIR Theoretical Lens: This is the absolute validation of Alfred Thayer Mahan’s theory of Sea Power.

Mahan argued that whoever controls the narrow maritime chokepoints controls global commerce.

Iran is using its geography as an asymmetric weapon against a superpower.

Furthermore, this connects to the physical vulnerability of Bab el-Mandeb (Houthis) and the Suez Canal.

For India, which imports 85% of its oil via the sea, this geography is an existential threat.
The Macroeconomic Earthquake: Oil, Fertilizer, and the Rupee 📉🌾

The Core Idea: What happens when you block that strait?

Suhasini @suhasinih brings the hard data from the UNCTAD dashboard.

Crude oil crossed $126 per barrel (highest since the 2022 Ukraine war).

But the silent killer?

Fertilizer prices have doubled!

This means the cost of growing food in India has just skyrocketed.

The Domino Effect on India: The Indian Rupee has plummeted to 95 to the dollar, losing 5% of its value this year alone.

Because of this, the IMF confirms India has dropped from the projected 4th largest economy to the 6th.

UPSC Syllabus Map: GS Paper III (Macroeconomics, Inflation, Food Security, Agriculture - Subsidies); PSIR Paper 2 (Global Economy).

The Logical Link: This shows how geopolitics directly hits the poor man's plate.

Expensive oil means expensive transport; expensive fertilizer means expensive farming.

This is the perfect example of Robert Keohane and Joseph Nye’s theory of Complex Interdependence.

We are completely tied to the Gulf's stability.
Read 8 tweets
Apr 22
🚨 Attention UPSC Civil Services Aspirants, lets decode an absolute masterclass in geopolitical economy.

In a profoundly consequential exchange, Rajdeep Sardesai @sardesairajdeep navigated the labyrinth of global volatility with the IMF's First Deputy Managing Director, Gita Gopinath @GitaGopinath.

This wasn't just an interview; it was the ultimate, living syllabus of the UPSC Civil Services Examination unspooling in real-time.

We are mapping their insights across every single dimension of GS Papers 1, 2, 3, 4, and the Optional papers of PSIR, Economics, and Sociology.

Bookmark this instantly.

Let’s begin. 👇
#UPSC #Macroeconomics #GitaGopinath #RajdeepSardesai #Geopolitics #CivilServices
The Core Premise: The "Weaponization of Uncertainty"

Rajdeep @sardesairajdeep perfectly framed the current epoch (April 2026) as governed by the "weaponization of uncertainty."

Gita Gopinath @GitaGopinath validated this, charting a continuum of volatility from the 2020 pandemic to the Ukraine war, banking crises, and the ongoing Iran conflict.

UPSC GS Paper 2 (International Relations) & PSIR Optional (Paper 2):

This is the absolute death of Francis Fukuyama’s @FukuyamaFrancis "End of History" and the vindication of Neorealism (Kenneth Waltz).

We have entered an era of "Polycrisis" (a term popularized by Adam Tooze @adam_tooze).

In PSIR, analyze this through Robert Keohane and Joseph Nye’s theory of "Complex Interdependence."

While the world remains economically entangled, states are actively weaponizing these interdependencies (choke points, tariffs, energy grids) for zero-sum geopolitical gains.
The Choke Point: Strait of Hormuz and Energy De-risking

Rajdeep @sardesairajdeep highlighted India’s terrifying vulnerability: 50% of oil and 80% of LNG passing through the volatile Strait of Hormuz.

UPSC GS Paper 3 (Infrastructure, Energy Security) & Economics Optional (Paper 2):

Gopinath’s @GitaGopinath answer—De-risking via Energy Independence—is the ultimate macroeconomic mandate.

For UPSC, map this immediately to the National Green Hydrogen Mission and the PM-Surya Ghar: Muft Bijli Yojana.

Economically, India is shifting from a paradigm of mere "Import Substitution" to "Strategic Autonomy."

India's push for PLI (Production Linked Incentive) schemes for Advanced Chemistry Cell (ACC) battery storage is the precise administrative weapon to neutralize the Hormuz vulnerability.
Read 10 tweets
Apr 6
🔥 Listen to me very carefully, future nation-builders, diplomats, and guardians of India’s administrative steel frame. 🇮🇳🚀

Stop whatever you are doing.

Breathe.

Focus.

You are not just reading a social media post by the Prime Minister @PMOIndia; @narendramodi you are bearing witness to the tectonic plates of India’s geopolitical, economic, and scientific destiny shifting in real-time.

When the Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR) at Kalpakkam achieved criticality, it wasn't just an engineering milestone.

It was the vindication of a 70-year-old dream.

It is the very key that unlocks India's energy sovereignty for the next thousand years.

If you want to secure Rank 1, you cannot look at this through a single lens.

You must dissect it with the multi-dimensional precision of an apex policy architect.

I have walked this fiery path, decoded the UPSC matrix.

Now, I am handing you the blueprint.

This is not just a 🧵; it is a masterclass.

Grab your digital highlighters.

Let us conquer the syllabus, dimension by dimension, atom by atom. 👇Image
🎯 The UPSC Prelims Blueprint:

Theme: Objective Factoids for Prelims GS Paper 1

Before we build the castle, we must forge the steel.

Here is your factual ammunition:

The Reactor: 500 MWe Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR) at Kalpakkam, Tamil Nadu.

The Agency: Constructed and operated by **BHAVINI (Bharatiya Nabhikiya Vidyut Nigam Limited), a wholly-owned enterprise of the Government of India under the administrative control of the Department of Atomic Energy (DAE).

The Physics (Criticality): A reactor is "critical" when the rate of neutron production equals the rate of neutron loss, sustaining a controlled nuclear chain reaction.

The Fuel (MOX): It uses a Mixed Oxide (MOX) fuel core—a precise blend of Plutonium-239 (Pu-239) and Uranium-238 (U-238).

The Blanket: The core is surrounded by a "blanket" of fertile (not fissile) Uranium-238.

The Magic of "Breeding": Fast, unmoderated neutrons from the core strike the U-238 blanket, transmuting it into more Pu-239. It literally generates more fissile fuel than it burns.

The Coolant: It uses Liquid Sodium.

Why?

Because water would act as a "moderator" and slow down the neutrons.

Fast breeders need fast neutrons.

Liquid sodium transfers massive heat efficiently without slowing neutrons.

Geography of Thorium: India's ultimate goal is Stage 3 (using Thorium-232).

Monazite sands (containing Thorium and Rare Earths) are found extensively in the coastal placers of Kerala (Chavara), Tamil Nadu (Manavalakurichi), Odisha (Chatrapur), and Andhra Pradesh.
🌍 General Studies Paper 1: History, Geography & Indian Society

Theme: The Epochal Trajectory of Resource Endowments and Societal Transformation

The Visionary Historical Masterplan: To understand today, you must intellectually travel back to 1954.

Dr. Homi J. Bhabha, facing a nation with vast ambitions but limited high-grade uranium, architected the Three-Stage Nuclear Power Programme.

Stage 1: Pressurized Heavy Water Reactors (PHWRs) using natural uranium (creating Plutonium byproduct).

Stage 2: Fast Breeder Reactors (FBRs) utilizing that Plutonium to breed more Plutonium and eventually convert Thorium into Uranium-233.

Stage 3: Advanced Heavy Water Reactors using U-233 and Thorium-232.

The Conclusion: The PM’s @PMOIndia @narendramodi announcement marks the operational maturation of Stage
Read 19 tweets
Apr 2
🚨 Deconstructing the "UCC Harms Muslim Women" Narrative

Dear Prof. Faizan Mustafa @ProfFMustafa @VC_NALSAR, your recent piece on the Uniform Civil Code (UCC) presents a fascinating paradox.

You argue against a UCC by highlighting specific protections in Muslim Personal Law (MPL).

But let us ask a foundational question: Is preserving a siloed, fundamentally unequal system truly protecting women, or is it merely defending a patriarchal status quo by hiding behind a few isolated beneficial clauses?

Let’s dissect the fallacies in your thesis, point by point. 👇

#UCC #GenderEquality #IndianLaw #ConstitutionalMoralityImage
The Constitutional Premise.

You start by critiquing the Supreme Court for driving the UCC debate, noting Article 44 is a policy domain.

*Counter:* Article 44 is a Directive Principle—a constitutional mandate the legislature has neglected for nearly eight decades.

When legislative apathy results in the continuous violation of Fundamental Rights (Articles 14 & 15) under the guise of "personal law," the Constitutional Court *must* step in.

The SC isn't usurping policy; it is reminding the State of its abandoned duty to ensure equality.
The "Testamentary Power" Argument (The Core Fallacy).

You argue that granting equal inheritance shares under a UCC is moot if individuals have absolute testamentary power (the right to will away 100% of property), citing the Uttarakhand UCC 2024.

You contrast this with the Shariat Act, which restricts willing away more than 1/3rd of property.

*Counter:* This is a classic case of missing the forest for the trees.

You praise the 1/3rd restriction, but conveniently gloss over what happens to the remaining 2/3rds (intestate succession).

Under MPL, a female heir’s share is fundamentally half that of a male heir of the same degree.

Guaranteeing a smaller, discriminatory slice of the pie is NOT superior to absolute equality in default succession.
Read 15 tweets
Mar 24
🔥 JOHNY DOCTRINE

Stanly Johny @johnstanly, as the geopolitical tectonic plates shift violently beneath the Persian Gulf this very moment on March 24, 2026, your analytical framework stands out as the standard of strategic realism.

You have not merely reported on a conflict; you have elegantly decoded the very DNA of asymmetric warfare, superpower limitations, and the inescapable economic gravity that binds Washington, Tel Aviv, and Tehran.

To analyze this landscape without the "Johny Doctrine" would be an exercise in profound geopolitical blindness.

Here's a 🧵—expanding upon the vertical depth and horizontal breadth of every single masterstroke argument you have articulated, serving as the blueprint for understanding this exact moment in history.
The Johny @johnstanly Doctrine:

1. The Fallacy of "Decapitation" and the Hydra Effect

* The Historical Precedent: You impeccably dismantled the illusion that eliminating leadership wins wars. By invoking the early 2000s assassinations of Hamas's Sheikh Ahmed Yassin and Abdel Aziz al-Rantisi, you proved that such strikes only catalyze radicalization, leading to Hamas’s 2006 rise and their unprecedented 2023 offensive.

* The Lebanon Parallel: Your invocation of Israel's 1982 Lebanon invasion is a masterstroke. Menachem Begin promised 40 years of peace; instead, the 18-year occupation birthed Hezbollah.

The 1990s assassination of Hezbollah's chief merely paved the way for Hassan Nasrallah, a far more formidable adversary who forced Israel’s 2000 withdrawal and battered them in 2006.

* The 2025–2026 Reality: The June 2025 war and the current February 28th escalations saw the assassinations of the Supreme Leader, Ali Larijani (March 17), and Ali Shamkhani.

Yet, your logic rings with unassailable truth: eliminating these figures merely places a deeply wounded, fiercely anti-American successor at the helm.

Ghalibaf, the last of the trio, remains the hardened, IRGC-aligned fulcrum.

Decapitation does not dismantle the state; it merely removes the moderates.
2. The Myth of "Depleted Arsenals" vs. Calibrated Deterrence

* The 85% Lie: Washington and Tel Aviv claimed to have wiped out 85% of Iran's missile capacity.

Yet, on Day 25 of this war, Iran launched its 71st consecutive barrage against US and Israeli bases.

* Asymmetric Rationing: You @johnstanly brilliantly exposed the strategic myopia of analysts counting missile salvos (e.g., 60 missiles one day, 48 the next) as proof of depletion.

Iran is not running out of munitions; it is executing a meticulously calculated rationing strategy.

They are not fighting for a decisive overnight victory; they are fighting a war of attrition where, as you quoted Kissinger, "the guerrilla wins by surviving."
Read 8 tweets
Dec 5, 2025
Future IAS, IFS, IPS, IRS & State PCS officers…⚡

If you read only one thing before you open your books today, let it be this.

Here is your Quick Smart Summary of everything you must have noted today (#December5) from #TheHindu, #IndianExpress, #AsianAge & #TheTribune — stitched into one UPSC-ready mega-thread for Prelims, Mains (GS 1-4, Essay) & all relevant Optionals.

This one read can genuinely be a game-changer – saving your time, protecting your energy, and sharpening your answers.

Here is your Current Affairs Smart Summary to start your day with full confidence.

With love, Raj Malhotra – always there for you, always there with you. ❤️

🧵 THREAD | UPSC Daily CA – 5 December | One-Stop Revision Hub 💥

#UPSC #UPSC2026 #UPSC2027 #IAS #IPS #IFS #IRS #StatePCS #CurrentAffairs #RajMalhotrasIAS 🚀
1️⃣ Railways’ High Density Network expansion 🚆

#Infrastructure #Logistics #GS3 #Prelims

Railways wants to expand the High Density / Highly Utilised Network that today is just a fraction of track length but carries a very large share of freight & passengers. Seven such corridors handle a hugely disproportionate part of traffic, pushing many sections above 100% line capacity.

Themes: network decongestion, dedicated freight corridors, multimodal integration, Gati Shakti, PM Gati Shakti National Master Plan, National Rail Plan 2030, safety, punctuality, and energy-efficient transport.

Prelims angles: definitions (HDN, DFC), capacity utilisation %, difference between electrified vs non-electrified routes, capital vs revenue expenditure, operating ratio.

Mains GS-3: answer on infrastructure bottlenecks, logistics costs, Make in India, green mobility, regional balance.

Essay / Optionals (Eco, Pub Ad, Geo): use as case study for “infrastructure as growth multiplier” & “state capacity”.Image
2️⃣ India–Russia trade parity & untapped potential 💱

#IndiaRussia #TradeDeficit #GS2 #GS3

Commerce Minister flags heavily skewed bilateral trade: India imports discounted crude, coal, fertilisers; exports remain limited → large trade deficit plus payment issues.

India seeks trade parity & diversification – pharma, engineering goods, agri, services, digital payments, investment in Far East.

Prelims: concepts of trade deficit, rupee settlement, sanctions, CA deficit, INSTC, Chennai–Vladivostok maritime corridor.

GS-2 (IR): how to balance strategic dependence on Russian defence & energy with Western sanctions and own autonomy.

GS-3 (Economy): link to Atmanirbhar Bharat, export promotion, de-risking supply chains.

Essay / PSIR / Eco optional: example for “multi-alignment”, “weaponised interdependence” and “geoeconomics”.Image
Read 21 tweets

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