Georgia State Supreme Court Briefing
Tonight’s Georgia Supreme Court elections are receiving significant national attention, as Democrats would need to win both races to have a chance to flip court control by 2028. A victory by either challenger would mark the first time in more than a century that a sitting Georgia Supreme Court justice has lost reelection, and would continue Democrats’ recent streak of strong performances in elections.
Democrats enter Election Day (ED) following a very strong early voting period, holding an approximately 584k to 430k advantage in ballots cast. Based on a baseline estimate of roughly 2.1 million total votes, including more than 1 million expected on ED, Republicans would need the ED electorate to be about 29 points more Republican than the absentee (AB) and early vote (EV) electorate just to pull even overall. That would represent a substantially larger shift than is typically seen. For context, the comparable shift was about 20 points in the 2022 primary, 7 points in the 2024 general election, and 9 points in the 2025 general election.
Several factors could influence ED turnout. Republicans have highly competitive gubernatorial and Senate primaries on the ballot, which could boost participation among late-breaking Republican voters who were still choosing who to support and are driven to the polls by campaigns. At the same time, Democrats have posted strong turnout performances in recent primaries and special elections.
Importantly, overall turnout composition does not necessarily determine the outcome of these judicial races. Republican-aligned incumbents may benefit from their structural advantage of incumbency designation on the ballot. Increased public attention surrounding these races, however, could reduce the impact of lower-information voting patterns and make the races more polarized at a partisan level than they were historically.
Throughout the day, I will closely watch turnout. Stronger ED participation outside the Atlanta metro area would be favorable for Republican candidates.
As results come in tonight, AB/EV will be reported first. Because we know the partisan breakdown of these drops from tracking the last couple weeks, we can compare the actual results to the partisanship and learn a lot about persuasion.
At the county level, initial AB/EV reporting could create an initial blue mirage. At the statewide level, however, slower reporting from the Atlanta metro area could produce an early red mirage before later-counted votes are added.
Tonight’s Georgia Supreme Court elections are receiving significant national attention, as Democrats would need to win both races to have a chance to flip court control by 2028. A victory by either challenger would mark the first time in more than a century that a sitting Georgia Supreme Court justice has lost reelection, and would continue Democrats’ recent streak of strong performances in elections.
Democrats enter Election Day (ED) following a very strong early voting period, holding an approximately 584k to 430k advantage in ballots cast. Based on a baseline estimate of roughly 2.1 million total votes, including more than 1 million expected on ED, Republicans would need the ED electorate to be about 29 points more Republican than the absentee (AB) and early vote (EV) electorate just to pull even overall. That would represent a substantially larger shift than is typically seen. For context, the comparable shift was about 20 points in the 2022 primary, 7 points in the 2024 general election, and 9 points in the 2025 general election.
Several factors could influence ED turnout. Republicans have highly competitive gubernatorial and Senate primaries on the ballot, which could boost participation among late-breaking Republican voters who were still choosing who to support and are driven to the polls by campaigns. At the same time, Democrats have posted strong turnout performances in recent primaries and special elections.
Importantly, overall turnout composition does not necessarily determine the outcome of these judicial races. Republican-aligned incumbents may benefit from their structural advantage of incumbency designation on the ballot. Increased public attention surrounding these races, however, could reduce the impact of lower-information voting patterns and make the races more polarized at a partisan level than they were historically.
Throughout the day, I will closely watch turnout. Stronger ED participation outside the Atlanta metro area would be favorable for Republican candidates.
As results come in tonight, AB/EV will be reported first. Because we know the partisan breakdown of these drops from tracking the last couple weeks, we can compare the actual results to the partisanship and learn a lot about persuasion.
At the county level, initial AB/EV reporting could create an initial blue mirage. At the statewide level, however, slower reporting from the Atlanta metro area could produce an early red mirage before later-counted votes are added.
Here is an example of today’s ballot showing the "incumbent" designation referenced above.
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