There are 150,000 fewer children living in New York City than on the eve of the pandemic—a nearly 9% drop. The five boroughs lost 3.5x as many kids in the four years after 2020 as they did in the previous ten. 🧵 ... 
Fertility is having a moment—but it's not what's driving the decline. Between 2020 and 2024 the 5 boroughs had more births than children aging out of childhood—a net gain of 17,000 from natural change alone. The real mechanism is migration.
Families are leaving primarily for the suburbs. Nassau (Long Island) absorbed nearly one in ten of the kids who left. Westchester took 5%. Fairfield CT and Suffolk each got 3.5%. Bergen, Hudson, and Essex NJ each absorbed another 3%.
But 15 of the 17 NYC-MSA suburb counties also lost kids between 2020 and 2024, because the suburbs have a fertility shortfall—118 children age out for every 100 born. [END]
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