I want to comment on John Cornyn losing his primary because I go to DC parties where I meet establishment guys and I know how they think.
Senate Republicans think they are the reason Republicans won in 2024. They think they’re the GOP’s secret sauce.
You think the GOP rode Trump’s coattails. They think Trump road their coattails.
In this world, Republicans won because Democrats went too far. Woke was too crazy. Republicans were moderate and sensible. Now, they have to keep the party that way or Republicans will make the same mistake the Democrats made.
They think in very outdated terms. Republicans will lose in 2026 because the incumbent party always loses. This is a political “rule”. They are 100% certain Republicans will lose. Therefore, anything Trump does to try to win the midterms is actually cope. You’re talking crazy. Crazy is bad.
SAVE? Deportations? That’s crazy. Crazy is bad.
“But if you redistrict and pass voter ID Republicans will win!”
Senate Republicans are not thinking like that. They’re thinking you’re nuts.
Passing bills, making law? They think that whatever mandate they had was squandered by Trump over controversies like Minneapolis and posting too many memes on Twitter. The GOP looks too crazy now. Well try again next time.
They’re actually doing us a favor. By doing nothing they’re protecting us from our own excesses. They’re helping us not look crazy. We had better thank them.
When you think of MAGA, you think of Donald Trump and reindustrialization and deporting illegal immigrants.
When they think of MAGA, they think of Marjorie Taylor Greene. They think of Roy Moore losing Alabama in 2018. They think of “grab them by the pussy”. They think of “they’re eating the dogs”. They think of Lauren Boebert and Matt Gaetz and Alex Jones. They think of crazy people doing stupid things.
So, in every election since 2016, and maybe even before that, it’s Establishment Republicans who have saved the ticket from the worst excesses of Donald Trump and the Republican base.
That is what Senate Republicans mean when they say they want to “govern”. They want to pass budgets and workshop foreign policy.
That is why they still won’t implement Trump’s agenda. They think it is deeply unpopular, or will become unpopular even if it temporarily polls well. They think Trump only won because they saved his bacon.
So, John Cornyn.
John Cornyn lost because the base is deeply unhappy with Senate Republican leadership. Republican voters would probably replace a majority of Senate Republicans if you simply took a straw poll.
Senate Republicans know this, but think that Republicans voters almost always “come to their senses” because we all know Republicans can’t afford to be crazy. Democrats lose when they’re crazy. Republicans will lose the same way.
Sometimes the base has to be coerced or told what to do. That’s why they have to spend $100M propping up Cornyn.
Cornyn’s loss is shocking to them because it doesn’t make sense:
* Trump has “no reason” for endorsing Paxton over Cornyn. It’s crazy for Trump to do this. Senate Republicans save Trump again and again and this is how he repays them.
* The voters are out of control. The base is “supposed to” vote for Republicans anyways, so they should know we have to support moderates who can win. The fact that the voters don’t know this is more proof that Senate Republicans are the smartest people in the room.
Senate Republicans think they are the reason Republicans won in 2024. They think they’re the GOP’s secret sauce.
You think the GOP rode Trump’s coattails. They think Trump road their coattails.
In this world, Republicans won because Democrats went too far. Woke was too crazy. Republicans were moderate and sensible. Now, they have to keep the party that way or Republicans will make the same mistake the Democrats made.
They think in very outdated terms. Republicans will lose in 2026 because the incumbent party always loses. This is a political “rule”. They are 100% certain Republicans will lose. Therefore, anything Trump does to try to win the midterms is actually cope. You’re talking crazy. Crazy is bad.
SAVE? Deportations? That’s crazy. Crazy is bad.
“But if you redistrict and pass voter ID Republicans will win!”
Senate Republicans are not thinking like that. They’re thinking you’re nuts.
Passing bills, making law? They think that whatever mandate they had was squandered by Trump over controversies like Minneapolis and posting too many memes on Twitter. The GOP looks too crazy now. Well try again next time.
They’re actually doing us a favor. By doing nothing they’re protecting us from our own excesses. They’re helping us not look crazy. We had better thank them.
When you think of MAGA, you think of Donald Trump and reindustrialization and deporting illegal immigrants.
When they think of MAGA, they think of Marjorie Taylor Greene. They think of Roy Moore losing Alabama in 2018. They think of “grab them by the pussy”. They think of “they’re eating the dogs”. They think of Lauren Boebert and Matt Gaetz and Alex Jones. They think of crazy people doing stupid things.
So, in every election since 2016, and maybe even before that, it’s Establishment Republicans who have saved the ticket from the worst excesses of Donald Trump and the Republican base.
That is what Senate Republicans mean when they say they want to “govern”. They want to pass budgets and workshop foreign policy.
That is why they still won’t implement Trump’s agenda. They think it is deeply unpopular, or will become unpopular even if it temporarily polls well. They think Trump only won because they saved his bacon.
So, John Cornyn.
John Cornyn lost because the base is deeply unhappy with Senate Republican leadership. Republican voters would probably replace a majority of Senate Republicans if you simply took a straw poll.
Senate Republicans know this, but think that Republicans voters almost always “come to their senses” because we all know Republicans can’t afford to be crazy. Democrats lose when they’re crazy. Republicans will lose the same way.
Sometimes the base has to be coerced or told what to do. That’s why they have to spend $100M propping up Cornyn.
Cornyn’s loss is shocking to them because it doesn’t make sense:
* Trump has “no reason” for endorsing Paxton over Cornyn. It’s crazy for Trump to do this. Senate Republicans save Trump again and again and this is how he repays them.
* The voters are out of control. The base is “supposed to” vote for Republicans anyways, so they should know we have to support moderates who can win. The fact that the voters don’t know this is more proof that Senate Republicans are the smartest people in the room.
Again, they’re not thinking like you think. They don’t understand MAGA. They think MAGA is crazy. They think you’re crazy. So when you primary Establishment Republicans for MAGA, you’re doing something “for no good reason”. It’s irrational.
Again, they’re running on outdated political logic. The general election is won by whoever runs in the middle. Intentionally picking a guy who isn’t in the center is irrational. It defies understanding. So you must have been incited by a rabble-rouser. You’ll come to your senses and realize we were right about everything.
They think that Trump’s victories would have been even bigger if an establishment Republican had been in Trump’s place. They think Trump rode in on their coattails, not the other way around.
Again, they’re running on outdated political logic. The general election is won by whoever runs in the middle. Intentionally picking a guy who isn’t in the center is irrational. It defies understanding. So you must have been incited by a rabble-rouser. You’ll come to your senses and realize we were right about everything.
They think that Trump’s victories would have been even bigger if an establishment Republican had been in Trump’s place. They think Trump rode in on their coattails, not the other way around.
I go to parties in DC, I talk to these guys, I know how they think. I’ve even made the mistake of dating on the Hill. I’m telling you what I see. There is no “conspiracy” except that they think we’re stupid and they need to lead us. They take too much stock in the New York Times and the Washington Post. They spend their entire lives going to parties and organized events where they never really speak with the Republican base.
They think they are winning, and everyone else is in denial. They will not listen to you explain the opposite. They are living in a different reality from you and I. We call it “Washington”
They think they are winning, and everyone else is in denial. They will not listen to you explain the opposite. They are living in a different reality from you and I. We call it “Washington”
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