Jacob L Profile picture
Jun 10 3 tweets 1 min read Read on X
I’m making this its own post because I feel like a lot of people don’t understand this.

The near-miraculous intelligence penetration that Mossad has achieved in Iran almost entirely due to Iranian patriots who see Israel as their only hope of liberation.

The electrical grid is one thing. They might tolerate that if it’ll win them their freedom. But going after their *water* infrastructure? Mossads spies aren’t going to want to doom their own country. If the water infrastructure gets hit, they might stop providing information entirely or even defect to the IRGC.
Same goes for Lebanon. Israeli intelligence superiority isn’t just because of higher IQs or because Shia too easily fall for their own propaganda. It’s because a lot of Lebanese people hate Hezbollah and the IRGC and see Israel as the only hope of getting their country back

If Israel starts carrying out an indiscriminate countervalue campaign to complete break Lebanon as a country, all that intel goes away. The most violent option is not always the most expedient one.
Israel’s military and intelligence capabilities are absolutely insane for a country of its size, but there are still constraints

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