This was what I was told about Iran in a background briefing from a senior administration official this morning.
- The United States is still days away from signing a deal with Iran to “destroyand remove” its entire enriched uranium stockpile,reopen the Strait of Hormuz without tolls, and stop supporting its terrorist proxies.
- The official expressed “75 percent confidence” that a memorandum of understanding to be signed in coming days “eliminates the nuclear program for the long term… opens the Straits of Hormuz [and] accomplishes what the president set out to accomplish with this military campaign…
“Do we have a deal yet? No.
“But I think that we are very close... That’s not 100%.… There's always some level of uncertainty when you're dealing with the Iranians. But I'm calling 75% confidence that we're going to be signing this agreement soon.”
- The Iranians have agreed “in principle” to allow IAEA inspectors and the US to “destroy and remove the nuclear material,” the official said.
“How that happens is highly technical and something we plan to work out…
“The deal contemplates an inspections regime [and] a verification regime.”
Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium is stored in three locations in Iran, said the official. “We feel quite confident that we know where all of it is.”
Recent US strikes helped drive the seeming Iranian change of heart. US forces struck Iran Wednesday in retaliation for an Iranian drone hitting an American Apache helicopter over the Strait of Hormuz Monday night. After the apparent breakthrough Thursday, President Trump called off a threatened invasion of Iran’s Kharg Island.
The Iranians came back to the negotiating table when they saw President Trump is “willing to go kinetic” and the fact that oil and gas on cargo ships have started flowing through the Hormuz Strait under US protection, said the official.
“There is a broad recognition [in Iran] that [the Strait] is a weakening point of leverage for them…
“While there are some people in the Iranian system, some ultra-hardliners, that don't want to give the United States anything, our sense is that …both the IRGC and the civilian people don't think it's in their interest to return to full combat operations.”
Iran claimed their attack on the Apache helicopter was an accident and not an attempt by the IRGC to derail the deal, said the official.
“I think that what happened is the IRGC is ostensibly trying to exercise greater control over the Straits of Hormuz, and they screwed up…. [They were] very aggressively back-channeling after that happened that they did not mean to cause any problems. Obviously, we laughed about that, and we responded as the president ordered.”
The official described the new agreement as the “antidote to the JCPOA [the Obama administration’s 2015 Iran nuclear deal] because the very stockpile that was allowed to be built up [under the JCPOA], is the thing that we’re going to eliminate as part of our agreement.”
The agreement is built on a “pay-for-performance” model.
“The way the deal is structured [is] the economic benefits to the Iranians won’t come until they deliver the weapons on the nuclear program ... that we require…
“The more they perform, the more they receive,” said the official.
Sanctions relief and potential infrastructure investment from Gulf Arab countries, estimated by the official to be $200 billion, would be provided only after Iran delivers on its end of the deal.
“The biggest benefit for Iran would not be from any unfrozen assets. [It] would be from the sanctions relief and from the Gulf Arab countries investing in their country.
“What the president wanted us to do is to accomplish our objectives, primarily, that Iran not have a nuclear weapon,” the official said.
“They’re going to be rewarded for acting like a normal country rather than the largest state sponsor of terrorism.”
President Trump briefed Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, on details of the deal Thursday. 1/2
- The United States is still days away from signing a deal with Iran to “destroyand remove” its entire enriched uranium stockpile,reopen the Strait of Hormuz without tolls, and stop supporting its terrorist proxies.
- The official expressed “75 percent confidence” that a memorandum of understanding to be signed in coming days “eliminates the nuclear program for the long term… opens the Straits of Hormuz [and] accomplishes what the president set out to accomplish with this military campaign…
“Do we have a deal yet? No.
“But I think that we are very close... That’s not 100%.… There's always some level of uncertainty when you're dealing with the Iranians. But I'm calling 75% confidence that we're going to be signing this agreement soon.”
- The Iranians have agreed “in principle” to allow IAEA inspectors and the US to “destroy and remove the nuclear material,” the official said.
“How that happens is highly technical and something we plan to work out…
“The deal contemplates an inspections regime [and] a verification regime.”
Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium is stored in three locations in Iran, said the official. “We feel quite confident that we know where all of it is.”
Recent US strikes helped drive the seeming Iranian change of heart. US forces struck Iran Wednesday in retaliation for an Iranian drone hitting an American Apache helicopter over the Strait of Hormuz Monday night. After the apparent breakthrough Thursday, President Trump called off a threatened invasion of Iran’s Kharg Island.
The Iranians came back to the negotiating table when they saw President Trump is “willing to go kinetic” and the fact that oil and gas on cargo ships have started flowing through the Hormuz Strait under US protection, said the official.
“There is a broad recognition [in Iran] that [the Strait] is a weakening point of leverage for them…
“While there are some people in the Iranian system, some ultra-hardliners, that don't want to give the United States anything, our sense is that …both the IRGC and the civilian people don't think it's in their interest to return to full combat operations.”
Iran claimed their attack on the Apache helicopter was an accident and not an attempt by the IRGC to derail the deal, said the official.
“I think that what happened is the IRGC is ostensibly trying to exercise greater control over the Straits of Hormuz, and they screwed up…. [They were] very aggressively back-channeling after that happened that they did not mean to cause any problems. Obviously, we laughed about that, and we responded as the president ordered.”
The official described the new agreement as the “antidote to the JCPOA [the Obama administration’s 2015 Iran nuclear deal] because the very stockpile that was allowed to be built up [under the JCPOA], is the thing that we’re going to eliminate as part of our agreement.”
The agreement is built on a “pay-for-performance” model.
“The way the deal is structured [is] the economic benefits to the Iranians won’t come until they deliver the weapons on the nuclear program ... that we require…
“The more they perform, the more they receive,” said the official.
Sanctions relief and potential infrastructure investment from Gulf Arab countries, estimated by the official to be $200 billion, would be provided only after Iran delivers on its end of the deal.
“The biggest benefit for Iran would not be from any unfrozen assets. [It] would be from the sanctions relief and from the Gulf Arab countries investing in their country.
“What the president wanted us to do is to accomplish our objectives, primarily, that Iran not have a nuclear weapon,” the official said.
“They’re going to be rewarded for acting like a normal country rather than the largest state sponsor of terrorism.”
President Trump briefed Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, on details of the deal Thursday. 1/2
"The Prime Minister is more skeptical that the Iranians will perform," said the official.. "But I think he does believe that if they do perform, then this will be a great, great deal for the entire region.”
The agreement includes a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon.
“Obviously, if Hezbollah is shooting at Israel, Israel is going to have the right to respond. But [this is a] regional peace deal and that means Iran not funding terrorism[and] a ceasefire in the region that includes Lebanon.”
The official described “broad buy-in” from Iranian political leadership and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on the core issues and said no money or sanctions relief will be released immediately upon signing.
“We’re not going to unfreeze any assets until they actually accomplish some of what they’re promising us,” the official said, rejecting reports that Iran will be rewarded with cash payments of $1 billion, $6 billion or $24 billion.
“That’s not true”.
Under the deal, Iran would not be allowed to impose tolls in the Strait of Hormuz.
“What is also not true is that we’re accepting their control over tolling in the Straits of Hormuz,” the official said.
“Our agreement is quite explicit. The Straits of Hormuz will be opened, the blockade will be lifted, and there will be unrestricted passage of commercial vessels.”
The official added that “it's going to take us a little time, probably a matter of weeks, to get the mines all the way out of the Straits. But the minute we have them not shooting drones and missiles, you're going to see a real [increase] of traffic. That's a commitment they have made.”
Technical details on joint IAEA and United States inspections to destroy and remove the nuclear material are still to be worked out.
“Because of the success of Midnight Hammer [when US B2-stealth bombers and Tomahawk missiles severely damaged three Iranian nuclear facilities last year] some of the stuff is buried at skyscraper [depth] underground. And it's also incredibly volatile [so]
requires very technical coordination”.
The MOU envisages Iran ending its role as a major driver of instability in exchange for economic integration in the region.
“This is not just an end to the Iranian nuclear program…
“What is being contemplated here is that Iran will fundamentally change its relationship with the Gulf countries [and] will become a much more peaceful and much more economically prosperous participant in that region of the world.
“Of course, we don't know that's going to happen, but if it does, then it will be a major, major win to the American people and indeed for the entire world.”
2/2
The agreement includes a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon.
“Obviously, if Hezbollah is shooting at Israel, Israel is going to have the right to respond. But [this is a] regional peace deal and that means Iran not funding terrorism[and] a ceasefire in the region that includes Lebanon.”
The official described “broad buy-in” from Iranian political leadership and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on the core issues and said no money or sanctions relief will be released immediately upon signing.
“We’re not going to unfreeze any assets until they actually accomplish some of what they’re promising us,” the official said, rejecting reports that Iran will be rewarded with cash payments of $1 billion, $6 billion or $24 billion.
“That’s not true”.
Under the deal, Iran would not be allowed to impose tolls in the Strait of Hormuz.
“What is also not true is that we’re accepting their control over tolling in the Straits of Hormuz,” the official said.
“Our agreement is quite explicit. The Straits of Hormuz will be opened, the blockade will be lifted, and there will be unrestricted passage of commercial vessels.”
The official added that “it's going to take us a little time, probably a matter of weeks, to get the mines all the way out of the Straits. But the minute we have them not shooting drones and missiles, you're going to see a real [increase] of traffic. That's a commitment they have made.”
Technical details on joint IAEA and United States inspections to destroy and remove the nuclear material are still to be worked out.
“Because of the success of Midnight Hammer [when US B2-stealth bombers and Tomahawk missiles severely damaged three Iranian nuclear facilities last year] some of the stuff is buried at skyscraper [depth] underground. And it's also incredibly volatile [so]
requires very technical coordination”.
The MOU envisages Iran ending its role as a major driver of instability in exchange for economic integration in the region.
“This is not just an end to the Iranian nuclear program…
“What is being contemplated here is that Iran will fundamentally change its relationship with the Gulf countries [and] will become a much more peaceful and much more economically prosperous participant in that region of the world.
“Of course, we don't know that's going to happen, but if it does, then it will be a major, major win to the American people and indeed for the entire world.”
2/2
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