Who knows if there will be a final agreement. But if there is, two things will be true at the same time:
a) It's essentially surrender to Iran.
b) We should be glad about it, because every day this insane, illegal war continues, we get weaker.
1/ Let me explain.
2/ An end to this disastrous war is a good thing - no matter the humiliating terms. Because every day it continues, our nation gets weaker, costs keep going up, Iran gets stronger, and Trump gets further from accomplishing his goals.
More war would just make things worse.
3/ But make no mistake: these are Iran's terms. They made one single concession - opening the Strait. And it's not even a concession because the Strait was open before the war!
And now that Iran has proven that the U.S. can't stop them from closing it, their power expands.
4/ Iran says it will get billions in frozen funds from the U.S.. So we are essentially paying them money to open the Strait.
And by releasing this money before any nuclear agreement is reached, our leverage on nuclear talks is decreased. middleeasteye.net/live-blog/live…
5/ It does not appear that Iran has made any concessions on their nuclear program except reiterating the promise to never build a weapon that was in Obama's JCPOA.
A promise to negotiate a new agreement is good, but we didn't need a war (that made Iran stronger) for that.
6/ Trump accomplished NONE of his war goals.
a. Hardliners remain in charge. And, having survived America's best shot and shown they can close the Strait, they are stronger than before the war.
b. Iran still has its missiles, drones and nuclear program. nytimes.com/2026/05/12/us/…
7/ None of that is surprising, because a bombing campaign was NEVER going to be able to destroy Iran's heavily bunkered missiles and nuclear assets. And drones are too small and mobile to take out with an air campaign.
8/ Iran is stronger today than before the war. They took our best shot and survived. They showed they can stop global commerce. Their regime is intact.
Trump has humiliated America. He accomplished none of his goals. He was forced to surrender on Iran's terms.
If the agreement actually gets signed (and there is a very good chance it won't and we'll be back at war soon), be glad the war is over. And then hold Trump accountable for having started it.
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2/ Last year, Elon Musk danced on stage with a chainsaw crowing over cutting bureaucracy. In reality, Elon Musk's DOGE fired health workers and researchers. Gutted labs and contact tracing. Chaos and disease are filling the void left behind. tinyurl.com/45ayvmvy
3/ Health workers at the epicenter of the current Ebola outbreak were forced to scale back their surveillance and sanitation measures following Trump’s withdrawal from the WHO and 68% funding cut to the Democratic Republic of the Congo. tinyurl.com/4rdjyf48
I want this war to end - now. And I want a deal that constrains Iran's nuclear program.
But what we are learning is that any deal Trump gets - and a deal is still very unlikely - is going to be WAY worse than the nuclear deal he cancelled a decade ago.
1/ Here's what we know:
2/ Obama's JCPOA limited Iranian enrichment to 3% and put a low cap on how much enriched uranium Iran could possess. It required Iran to open up facilities to regular inspection to monitor compliance. Iran pledged to never obtain a nuclear weapon.
3/ When Trump blew up the agreement, Iran put their nuclear program into overdrive. They made advancements they never made before the JCPOA.
Before the agreement, they had enriched to 20%. Now - 60%.
Trump's Iran War has been a disaster in the U.S., as gas prices eclipse $4.
But in the developing world, the shock of spiralling energy prices has been cataclysmic.
1/ A short thread the scope of the damage Trump has caused. There are crises everywhere and you need to know.
2/ Here's just a sample of the disasters that are spiraling out of control, all over the world:
The Philippines had declared a national state of emergency. Their fuel reserves are so low they can only last for 30 more days of normal economic activity. abcnews.com/Business/phili…
3/ Protests broke out in India over shortages of cooking gas. The entire nation has had to give up cooking hot food. reuters.com/business/energ…
2/ Trump isn't even pretending to choose military targets. He is promising to bomb all of Iran's power plants and bridges. This is military.com making it clear that hitting civilian infrastructure, like power plants, is a war crime. military.com/feature/2026/0…
3/ Trump's advisors are telling him to hit civilian sites because it will cause unrest and potentially topple the regime.
But just think about the insanity of this plan: kill tens of thousands of civilians in order to cause a national panic. wsj.com/world/middle-e…
Air power is how a nation projects extra-territorial power. And how you protect your own airspace.
But drones are replacing airplanes. And we CANNOT destroy all their drones. Their drone attacks continue. jpost.com/middle-east/ir…
3/ Rubio Objective 2: Destroy their navy.
Ok, but for what? Their "navy" isn't what closes the Strait of Hormuz. It's thousands of speed boats and suicide boats. And like their drones, we can't destroy them all.