Thread by @ifspp

1/8 The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas published the most rigorous study ever done on unauthorized immigration's economic impact.
The findings are devastating — and the mainstream press buried them.
A thread. 🧵

2/8 Between 2021–2024, 7 million unauthorized immigrants entered the U.S.
That's 1.75M per year — nearly DOUBLE the rate of legal immigration.
The prior decade average? Essentially zero.
This was not gradual. It was a shock.

3/8 For every 1% increase in unauthorized immigrant workers in a local market:
🏠 Home prices: +2.2%
🏢 Rents: +1.4%
💰 Wages: -0.87%

All three. Simultaneously. Causally established.

4/8 Unauthorized immigration explains:
▸ 30% of home price growth
▸ 20% of rent growth
▸ 30% of total employment growth

...at the average American metro. 2021–2024.

This is not a footnote. This is a structural reshaping of the American economy.

5/8 The "immigrants build housing" argument?
Tested directly. Rejected.
New housing permits: statistically ZERO effect across all categories.
Construction employment: no meaningful increase.
American renters absorbed the full demand shock with no supply offset.

6/8 Who paid the steepest price?
Working-class renters in multi-family housing — apartments — saw the largest rent increases.
The same Americans that every politician in Washington claims to be fighting for.

7/8 The good news: enforcement works.
When enforcement tightened mid-2024, flows reversed almost immediately.
The correlation between boom-period inflows and slowdown-period outflows across counties: -0.96.
Nearly perfect reversal. The data proves it can be done.

8/8 We turned this Fed Dallas research into a full presentation with video.
Watch it here: open.substack.com/pub/ifspp/p/th…