🧵1/n
Election guy here. I'm going to "live tweet" as I go through Trump's declassified election documents.
In his speech, Trump claimed the "deep state" was trying to coverup China's meddling in our elections. This is twisting what happened.
In his speech, Trump claimed the "deep state" was trying to coverup China's meddling in our elections, the nefarious actors blocked such evidence from going to into the PDB (Presidential Daily Brief). He's going to investigate, prosecute, and fire these people.
But the declassified documents show that there was no evidence of this. Yes, it was "blocked", but by people saying "there's no evidence".
This is the process of intelligence gathering and the PDB: factions want to their narratives to get in the document, while those producing the document clean things up, removing things that have no evidence.
Election guy here. I'm going to "live tweet" as I go through Trump's declassified election documents.
In his speech, Trump claimed the "deep state" was trying to coverup China's meddling in our elections. This is twisting what happened.
In his speech, Trump claimed the "deep state" was trying to coverup China's meddling in our elections, the nefarious actors blocked such evidence from going to into the PDB (Presidential Daily Brief). He's going to investigate, prosecute, and fire these people.
But the declassified documents show that there was no evidence of this. Yes, it was "blocked", but by people saying "there's no evidence".
This is the process of intelligence gathering and the PDB: factions want to their narratives to get in the document, while those producing the document clean things up, removing things that have no evidence.
2/n
This CIA note describes the issues with Venezuela trying to influence our elections.
Everything in this note is already public, since 2020, and has been the basis of conspiracy theories about Venezuela hacking our elections.
The company Smartamatic was founded and run by Venezuela nationals, but they make products for elections world wide.
In 2006, the CIA was worried Chavez would use his influence over them in order to hack our elections. The company was forced to divest most of its US business, "Sequoia Systems".
Dominion acquired Sequoia a few years later, and used many of their products in its product line, such as ImageCast (where you mark ballots).
The conspiracy theory is that somehow backdoors or other nefarious things from 2006 are still in 2020 systems. There's no evidence of this.
My point is that there have been long running conspiracy theories about Venezuela election interference and these new releases show nothing new.
This CIA note describes the issues with Venezuela trying to influence our elections.
Everything in this note is already public, since 2020, and has been the basis of conspiracy theories about Venezuela hacking our elections.
The company Smartamatic was founded and run by Venezuela nationals, but they make products for elections world wide.
In 2006, the CIA was worried Chavez would use his influence over them in order to hack our elections. The company was forced to divest most of its US business, "Sequoia Systems".
Dominion acquired Sequoia a few years later, and used many of their products in its product line, such as ImageCast (where you mark ballots).
The conspiracy theory is that somehow backdoors or other nefarious things from 2006 are still in 2020 systems. There's no evidence of this.
My point is that there have been long running conspiracy theories about Venezuela election interference and these new releases show nothing new.
3/n In 2017, after Maduro cheated massively in elections, Smartmatic cut ties with Venezuela.
Trump's speech tonight that Maduro's cheating somehow implies the same thing could happen in the US.
There is no relationship between the two. For one thing, these machines mark paper ballots, so hacking can't change the result.
Trump's speech tonight that Maduro's cheating somehow implies the same thing could happen in the US.
There is no relationship between the two. For one thing, these machines mark paper ballots, so hacking can't change the result.
https://x.com/ClimateAudit/status/2077941022189846829
4/ Next document assesses China hacking elections. It says:
"The IC assesses that China does not currently intend to covertly interfere to try to sway the outcome of the election, although this activity could enable such operations, if Beijing made a decision to do"
Yes, there is constant hacking activity going back decades by China directed at US politicians. None of this points to an effort, especially any successful effort, to sway American elections.
All of these documents repeat this, that China isn't hacking our elections.
"The IC assesses that China does not currently intend to covertly interfere to try to sway the outcome of the election, although this activity could enable such operations, if Beijing made a decision to do"
Yes, there is constant hacking activity going back decades by China directed at US politicians. None of this points to an effort, especially any successful effort, to sway American elections.
All of these documents repeat this, that China isn't hacking our elections.
5/ Onto the next document, an August 2020 assessment of foreign threats to the election.
It points out that one of the evil thing foreign states might do is "calling into question the validity of the election results".
Yes, this is an evil thing. We should vigorously oppose anybody who does this (who doesn't have the evidence).
I'm talking about Trump, of course. Calling into question the results of an election (without evidence) is an evil act.
It points out that one of the evil thing foreign states might do is "calling into question the validity of the election results".
Yes, this is an evil thing. We should vigorously oppose anybody who does this (who doesn't have the evidence).
I'm talking about Trump, of course. Calling into question the results of an election (without evidence) is an evil act.
6/ Note the hypocrisy. Russia meddling to help Trump in elections is good, China wanting to help Biden is bad.
Also note: Russia did meddle, China did not.
Also note: Russia did meddle, China did not.
7/ Note "Hunter Laptop" mention.
This was from August 2020. Russia had hacked Burisma in January 2020. Therefore, the intelligence community (IC) was expecting a Russia-sponsored misinformation campaign about Hunter Biden from Burisma emails as an "October Surprised".
Thats why when the "Hunter Laptop" October surprise happened, 51 former IC officials said it was "probably a Russian misinformation op".
This was from August 2020. Russia had hacked Burisma in January 2020. Therefore, the intelligence community (IC) was expecting a Russia-sponsored misinformation campaign about Hunter Biden from Burisma emails as an "October Surprised".
Thats why when the "Hunter Laptop" October surprise happened, 51 former IC officials said it was "probably a Russian misinformation op".
8/ Note the consistency that Russia actors do the same thing as Trump.
Again, this is the August 2020 assessment months before the election.
Again, this is the August 2020 assessment months before the election.
9/ The thing that people like me worry more about is hackers accessing the things that are online: voter registration databases, pollbooks, and websites.
As this assessment says, hackers flipping votes on a wide scale isn't really a big threat.
As this assessment says, hackers flipping votes on a wide scale isn't really a big threat.
10/ This next document tries to make the ALTERNATE case, that may China was meddling in the election.
But even this alternate view still says that there's no hacking involved. It's all just social media posts and messaging.
But even this alternate view still says that there's no hacking involved. It's all just social media posts and messaging.
11/ That document and the next (below) were written by @DrPorter.
Here is is frustrated by how how China's influence operations were considered election interference against other countries but not when against the U.S.
Still, no cyber/hacking operations are being discussed.
Here is is frustrated by how how China's influence operations were considered election interference against other countries but not when against the U.S.
Still, no cyber/hacking operations are being discussed.
12/n
The next document discuss the particular threats to pollbooks and voter registration databases, which as discussed above, are the computers theoretically reachable from the Internet. (This is quite separate from the attacks on voting machines and tabulators, which aren't reachable from the Internet).
Note again that it stresses the biggest threat is casting doubt in the integrity of elections -- the thing that Trump is already doing.
The next document discuss the particular threats to pollbooks and voter registration databases, which as discussed above, are the computers theoretically reachable from the Internet. (This is quite separate from the attacks on voting machines and tabulators, which aren't reachable from the Internet).
Note again that it stresses the biggest threat is casting doubt in the integrity of elections -- the thing that Trump is already doing.
13/n Now onto the second tranch of files, all about China.
They claim that the voter registration records for 18 states were "compromised".
They were not "compromised". Such records are public information, you can simply download them.
I have all the records from Georgia, my home state, for example.
The process for getting them is different for each state and can be time consuming. You can't simply google them and click a link. But they are all available to the public -- and China.
perplexity.ai/search/63cf791…
They claim that the voter registration records for 18 states were "compromised".
They were not "compromised". Such records are public information, you can simply download them.
I have all the records from Georgia, my home state, for example.
The process for getting them is different for each state and can be time consuming. You can't simply google them and click a link. But they are all available to the public -- and China.
perplexity.ai/search/63cf791…
14/ This document describes a 2022 event where the PUBLIC records from six states were accessed. The only swing state was Michigan.
Lots of people download these files, lots of companies, and both political parties.
It's creepy when China does it, but not evidence of anything amiss with elections.
Lots of people download these files, lots of companies, and both political parties.
It's creepy when China does it, but not evidence of anything amiss with elections.
15/ The document about the "200 million voter records" contains a list of a lot of other sensitive materials, like F-15 information.
It's heavily redacted but it looks like a list of things typically available on the dark web.
As I've mentioned above, 200 million voter records is available through public records requests. It takes some effort, as every state (and sometimes county) is different.
A lot of this information applies to other countries. It seems like a hacker/intelligence organizations grabbing information off the dark web opportunistically rather than any particular plan.
Trump is claiming this is evidence of planned interference in elections, but it's just not there. Election info is here because that's the easiest way to get a large database of PII, not because it's targeting elections.
It's heavily redacted but it looks like a list of things typically available on the dark web.
As I've mentioned above, 200 million voter records is available through public records requests. It takes some effort, as every state (and sometimes county) is different.
A lot of this information applies to other countries. It seems like a hacker/intelligence organizations grabbing information off the dark web opportunistically rather than any particular plan.
Trump is claiming this is evidence of planned interference in elections, but it's just not there. Election info is here because that's the easiest way to get a large database of PII, not because it's targeting elections.
16/ This next document is about the conspiracy-theory that China was making fake driver's licenses to send to sympathizers, so that they could register to vote, and then vote Joe Biden in 2020. US Customs did indeed intercept a shipment of 20,000 fake driver's licenses from China.
This has been widely discussed since 2020, so all the details are roughly public. This document appears to show some more behind-the-scenes stuff.
This has been debunked, primarily because it wouldn't work.
To register to vote, you need a valid driver's license, that's checked against a database of valid licenses. If you try to use a fake driver's license, the registration will fail in almost all states.
The 20,000 licenses intercepted by the DBP where "procured by teens between the ages 18 and 20 who then modify their Date of Birth" to presumably try and circumvent alcohol laws".
Why this document is important is the part where it says "contradicts Director Wray's testimony to Congress". Days earlier, the FBI directory had testified there was no coordinated effort for election fraud, and now this confidential human information walked in and said there was.
Coverup!, people claim. They say this report was buried for political reasons, to avoid embarrassing Wray.
Maybe, but it's more nuanced than that. This confidential information also claimed that China had secret bunkers in Republican states for disseminating COVID. Also, his information came from a guy who knew a guy in the PRC -- double hearsay.
Much of this discussion is about getting quality information instead of simply pushing paranoid fantasies from a guy off the street.
The first report from this source was sent around, but after they decided it was low quality, they sent another missive saying that it should be deleted, expunged, removed from all computers. This also sounds like a Coverup!, but is actually normal procedures for when a mistake has been made sending out a bad report.
Trump is using this document to show the deep state coverup of a Chinese election fraud operation.
But it just shows normal process, a crazy information told them information that was bogus, because of the various politics involved, mistakes were made.
I have a lot of experience with the FBI and hacking. They don't know things (like here, they don't know if the claims would actually work to subvert elections), so nonsense spreads in the organization. What I see here is the sort of nonsense about hackers that have spread in their org.
This has been widely discussed since 2020, so all the details are roughly public. This document appears to show some more behind-the-scenes stuff.
This has been debunked, primarily because it wouldn't work.
To register to vote, you need a valid driver's license, that's checked against a database of valid licenses. If you try to use a fake driver's license, the registration will fail in almost all states.
The 20,000 licenses intercepted by the DBP where "procured by teens between the ages 18 and 20 who then modify their Date of Birth" to presumably try and circumvent alcohol laws".
Why this document is important is the part where it says "contradicts Director Wray's testimony to Congress". Days earlier, the FBI directory had testified there was no coordinated effort for election fraud, and now this confidential human information walked in and said there was.
Coverup!, people claim. They say this report was buried for political reasons, to avoid embarrassing Wray.
Maybe, but it's more nuanced than that. This confidential information also claimed that China had secret bunkers in Republican states for disseminating COVID. Also, his information came from a guy who knew a guy in the PRC -- double hearsay.
Much of this discussion is about getting quality information instead of simply pushing paranoid fantasies from a guy off the street.
The first report from this source was sent around, but after they decided it was low quality, they sent another missive saying that it should be deleted, expunged, removed from all computers. This also sounds like a Coverup!, but is actually normal procedures for when a mistake has been made sending out a bad report.
Trump is using this document to show the deep state coverup of a Chinese election fraud operation.
But it just shows normal process, a crazy information told them information that was bogus, because of the various politics involved, mistakes were made.
I have a lot of experience with the FBI and hacking. They don't know things (like here, they don't know if the claims would actually work to subvert elections), so nonsense spreads in the organization. What I see here is the sort of nonsense about hackers that have spread in their org.
17/ This email exchange is more behind-the-scenes discussion about what went into the official assessment, with one side arguing they should say China INFLUENCE operations (though not HACKING) is trying to influence the election, and the other side claiming they weren't.
Again, Trump claims this was a deep state coverup trying to suppress China's interference in the election, to which is promises to investigate, to either fire those involved or bring criminal charges.
Again, Trump claims this was a deep state coverup trying to suppress China's interference in the election, to which is promises to investigate, to either fire those involved or bring criminal charges.
@DrPorter 18/ Here is the Presidential Daily Brief from June 25 2020.
The funny thing is that it confirms what insiders have claimed about Trump, that he wanted it simplified into punchy bullet points a maximum of a couple pages long.
The funny thing is that it confirms what insiders have claimed about Trump, that he wanted it simplified into punchy bullet points a maximum of a couple pages long.
19/ Shelby Pierson also didn't like the official statement ("China not interfering with elections") and contributed to the alternate document ("Beijing has taken some low-level exploratory steps to denigrate the President and shape voter perceptions ahead of the election").
Again, Trump releases these documents to pretend some sort of coverup by the deep state, when it's just honest disagreement.
And it's disagreement about a TRIVIAL difference, whether China's efforts to shape policy and perceptions of candidates constitutes election interference.
All the documents agree on the facts, they just disagree on the narrative.
Again, Trump releases these documents to pretend some sort of coverup by the deep state, when it's just honest disagreement.
And it's disagreement about a TRIVIAL difference, whether China's efforts to shape policy and perceptions of candidates constitutes election interference.
All the documents agree on the facts, they just disagree on the narrative.
@DrPorter 20/ This email (from @DrPorter) shows the enormous amount of behind the scenes work and DEBATE that went into producing that bullet point in the PDB.
21/ This is the IIR -- Intelligence Information Report -- that was generated when a source walked into the Albany office. This is the document that was then 'recalled'.
Note the comment at the end, asking how they would get address information. That's explained by all those other documents, about how they would get those address from the (public) voter registration records.
But it's still not clear where they would've gotten correct driver's license IDs. Those aren't in the public registration records.
But in most places, you wouldn't need the physical IDs to the change addresses where the mail-in ballot is sent. You can just do it online.
In such case, the change-of-address would be noticeable. You could go through the public voting records to see if there was an unusual number of change-of-addresses in a state before receiving mail-in ballots.
Maybe there is a swing state where this complicated process needs these steps, so I can't say it's impossible. But it's improbable, and there's no supporting evidence, and there could be by analyzing public voting records.
Note the comment at the end, asking how they would get address information. That's explained by all those other documents, about how they would get those address from the (public) voter registration records.
But it's still not clear where they would've gotten correct driver's license IDs. Those aren't in the public registration records.
But in most places, you wouldn't need the physical IDs to the change addresses where the mail-in ballot is sent. You can just do it online.
In such case, the change-of-address would be noticeable. You could go through the public voting records to see if there was an unusual number of change-of-addresses in a state before receiving mail-in ballots.
Maybe there is a swing state where this complicated process needs these steps, so I can't say it's impossible. But it's improbable, and there's no supporting evidence, and there could be by analyzing public voting records.
22/ Next up is the Muskegon, Michigan, fraudulent voter registration case.
Before the 2020 election, Democrat groups hired a canvasser to get people to register to vote. This company then handed in hundreds (if not thousands) of fraudulent voter registration forms.
The FBI investigated, but QUIETLY closed the case at the end of 2021, finding there was no intent to create fraudulent votes -- and since the forms were rejected, no fraud was successful. But it didn't PUBLICLY close the case until 2025.
Trump has ordered the DoJ/FBI to reopen the case.
This violates American norms. The President shouldn't be involved in directing FBI investigations or DoJ prosecutions, especially in politically charged areas. This is a blatant violation of our norms -- but he's been doing that constantly for the last two years so it's just "Thursday".
Before the 2020 election, Democrat groups hired a canvasser to get people to register to vote. This company then handed in hundreds (if not thousands) of fraudulent voter registration forms.
The FBI investigated, but QUIETLY closed the case at the end of 2021, finding there was no intent to create fraudulent votes -- and since the forms were rejected, no fraud was successful. But it didn't PUBLICLY close the case until 2025.
Trump has ordered the DoJ/FBI to reopen the case.
This violates American norms. The President shouldn't be involved in directing FBI investigations or DoJ prosecutions, especially in politically charged areas. This is a blatant violation of our norms -- but he's been doing that constantly for the last two years so it's just "Thursday".
@DrPorter 23/ One witness says a manager told the canvassers to fill in fraudulent forms if they couldn't make their quota.
She then admits to faking a lot of forms, and that other employees helped.
Most of the other witnesses, however, said they never witnessed anything like that.
She then admits to faking a lot of forms, and that other employees helped.
Most of the other witnesses, however, said they never witnessed anything like that.
24/ It appears to be one bad manager at one location who encouraged falsification to make his quota, and then some individual canvassers did as instructed, and there may have been bonuses or incentives involved..
This other witness claims that at her location, none of that stuff was going on, but that she heard about it at the other location.
This other witness claims that at her location, none of that stuff was going on, but that she heard about it at the other location.
25/ I was wrong saying that they closed the case in late 2021. It apparently remained open the entire time (until 2025), as this timeline document shows. They merely discussed closing it.
Three years late and they are interviewing those canvassers, no wonder they couldn't remember much.
Three years late and they are interviewing those canvassers, no wonder they couldn't remember much.
26/ This email is about the DoJ's Public Integrity Section and their document "Federal Prosecution of Election Offenses".
That document seems to say this case should be prosecuted.
"Thus, even when no fraudulent votes result from bounty-hunting, the fraudulent registrations that arise from this conduct are not victimless offenses. Federal prosecutors should be cognizant of these circumstances and, when evidence of fraudulent registrations inspired by bounty-hunting is discovered, should consider prosecuting the individuals submitting the false registrations, as well as, in appropriate circumstances, the organizations that employ and pay them,"
That document seems to say this case should be prosecuted.
"Thus, even when no fraudulent votes result from bounty-hunting, the fraudulent registrations that arise from this conduct are not victimless offenses. Federal prosecutors should be cognizant of these circumstances and, when evidence of fraudulent registrations inspired by bounty-hunting is discovered, should consider prosecuting the individuals submitting the false registrations, as well as, in appropriate circumstances, the organizations that employ and pay them,"
27/ In at least one case, it appears that a fraudulent registration succeeded.
This woman was approached by an aggressive canvaser, and repeatedly refused to register.
But then she got a registration card in the mail saying she was registered, and indeed, the database shows she's registered.
This woman was approached by an aggressive canvaser, and repeatedly refused to register.
But then she got a registration card in the mail saying she was registered, and indeed, the database shows she's registered.
28/ They closed the investigation in September 2025. They said the could find no fake ballots with THE PURPOSE OF ESTABLISHING THE ABILITY TO VOTE.
In other words, an actual conspiracy of the sort Trump alleges would be a crime they'd investigate. But no such conspiracy exists, and they aren't going to ruin people's lives just because a manager told them to fill out forms to make quota for a temp job they only worked at for a few weeks.
Those guidelines above say they should be prosecuted anyway, and I'm kinda agree. But I can see how it can go both ways.
But the real issue is overwhelmingly Trump INTERFERENCE in such decisions. These are supposed to be made by independent investigators and independent prosecutors. Trump's involving is a violation of all our prosecutorial norms, that they shouldn't be done for politics. Trump wants to ruin these people's lives with felony convictions for purely political reasons.
In other words, an actual conspiracy of the sort Trump alleges would be a crime they'd investigate. But no such conspiracy exists, and they aren't going to ruin people's lives just because a manager told them to fill out forms to make quota for a temp job they only worked at for a few weeks.
Those guidelines above say they should be prosecuted anyway, and I'm kinda agree. But I can see how it can go both ways.
But the real issue is overwhelmingly Trump INTERFERENCE in such decisions. These are supposed to be made by independent investigators and independent prosecutors. Trump's involving is a violation of all our prosecutorial norms, that they shouldn't be done for politics. Trump wants to ruin these people's lives with felony convictions for purely political reasons.
29/ Now let's go onto the fourth section, illegal aliens registered to vote.
It's obvious disinformation. The numbers look suspicious with so many "Deceased" and "Non-Citizen" registered voters.
What's missing is WHETHER THEY VOTED. The voter database has that information. Trump has that information. He could add two more columns for each state and tell use precisely how many Deceased or Non-Citizen's voted.
The reason he doesn't tell us because that the numbers are around 0 to 5 per state. It does happen occasionally, through accidents, but it's incredibly rare and not worth worrying about.
It's obvious disinformation. The numbers look suspicious with so many "Deceased" and "Non-Citizen" registered voters.
What's missing is WHETHER THEY VOTED. The voter database has that information. Trump has that information. He could add two more columns for each state and tell use precisely how many Deceased or Non-Citizen's voted.
The reason he doesn't tell us because that the numbers are around 0 to 5 per state. It does happen occasionally, through accidents, but it's incredibly rare and not worth worrying about.
@DrPorter 30/ The next document starts with pure disinformation. China did not "breach" any systems, they just accessed the public voter records -- the same records Trump is using in the previous document.
31/ This document then goes onto list threats to "voter registration databases". To be fair, that's a legitimate thing to be worried about, but this document is full of nonsense.
But the document does the "shotgun" approach of spraying you with a bunch of examples, none of which are actually valid.
So I'm going to dispute one of them, since I don't have the time to dispute them all.
They talk about the case in Riverside County (California) where voters party affiliation were switched. Voters complained that when they turned up to vote in the primary, they were turned away, because they belonged to the wrong party. Both Republican and Democrat voters complained. About 20 of them, though of course, there were probably more.
The conclusion is that hackers must've breached the statewide voter registration database, using the website.
But there's no evidence of this, as the Secretary of State's office has confirmed. It's all supposition. It's implausible that a hacker would change just a few people's records in just one county.
There are simpler explanations. For example, California has a problem that if you update your drivers license, you need to re-enter your Party affiliation, or it's changed to "No Party" preference.
cbsnews.com/sacramento/new…
That's more likely than a crazy hacker.
The point is that this document from Trump is not a product of the intelligence community or law enforcement, by professionals, but by those trying to promote election conspiracy theories.
But the document does the "shotgun" approach of spraying you with a bunch of examples, none of which are actually valid.
So I'm going to dispute one of them, since I don't have the time to dispute them all.
They talk about the case in Riverside County (California) where voters party affiliation were switched. Voters complained that when they turned up to vote in the primary, they were turned away, because they belonged to the wrong party. Both Republican and Democrat voters complained. About 20 of them, though of course, there were probably more.
The conclusion is that hackers must've breached the statewide voter registration database, using the website.
But there's no evidence of this, as the Secretary of State's office has confirmed. It's all supposition. It's implausible that a hacker would change just a few people's records in just one county.
There are simpler explanations. For example, California has a problem that if you update your drivers license, you need to re-enter your Party affiliation, or it's changed to "No Party" preference.
cbsnews.com/sacramento/new…
That's more likely than a crazy hacker.
The point is that this document from Trump is not a product of the intelligence community or law enforcement, by professionals, but by those trying to promote election conspiracy theories.
32/32 Okay, that's it, I'm done. I've read every document in all 4 of those sections. I've done my due diligence. The summary is:
1. These issues have been well known, debated, and debunked for the last 6 years.
2. There is some new insight from previous classified documents, but it doesn't change the conclusions.
3. It's still conspiracy-theories, twisted narratives, and outright violation of our democratic norms.
4. In particular, they show that the only threat to elections here is Donald Trump himself, as he attempts to sow doubt in the legitimacy of elections, and politicizes the Justice system.
1. These issues have been well known, debated, and debunked for the last 6 years.
2. There is some new insight from previous classified documents, but it doesn't change the conclusions.
3. It's still conspiracy-theories, twisted narratives, and outright violation of our democratic norms.
4. In particular, they show that the only threat to elections here is Donald Trump himself, as he attempts to sow doubt in the legitimacy of elections, and politicizes the Justice system.
@DrPorter 33/32
Again Trump proves he's the enemy of fair elections and free-speech, threatening to revoke the NBC and ABC broadcast licenses for failure to broadcast his speech on this topic.
Again Trump proves he's the enemy of fair elections and free-speech, threatening to revoke the NBC and ABC broadcast licenses for failure to broadcast his speech on this topic.
https://x.com/Acyn/status/2077929132508487794
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