1/ Founders: If you have competing term sheets, what factors are important beyond price? Firm A has a lower valuation BUT a much better track record of realizing that value. Firm B has a history of paying up but fewer exits. Who do you choose? 🧵👇🏾
2/ Startup employees: Similarly, how do you weigh offers from two competing startups? Is there data hiding in plain sight that may help you decide whose equity will be worth more?
3/ Allocators: Whether you are investing in startups directly or indirectly, what tools are you using to sift through the signal and the noise?
New data from @AkiliLabs clinical trial for teens 13-17yo with ADHD show that 2 out of 3 teens had meaningful clinical improvement in attentiveness (using an FDA-cleared test to measure attention deficit) and 1 in 4 teens tested into the normal range. All through a video game
These results are 3X better than Akili's clinical trial results for 8-12yos, which was their original FDA authorization
For decades parents have had limited options to treat kids with ADHD, mostly relying on pills like Adderall and Ritalin (90% of diagnosed kids are prescribed stimulants). Today, ADHD drugs are the #1 prescribed drug and #1 pharmaceutical expense for kids
The two most important drivers of the next decade: the marginal cost of energy AND the marginal cost of compute will both go to zero.
What does this mean?
Take one of the biggest technology leaps of 2023: ChatGPT. It takes 6,000kWh and $100K per day to run ChatGPT, per @tomgoldsteincs, not including the $1B MSFT spent to fund @OpenAI