Also available in convenient summary version: Why cost-benefit analysis of tax regulations has failed, and how to fix it 2/ equitablegrowth.org/why-cost-benef…
In April 2018, while the Treasury and the IRS were developing regulations to implement the TCJA, the Trump administration sharply expanded a requirement for cost-benefit analysis of tax regulations 3/
A recession is a broad-based decline in economic activity across the country. 2/
Economic suffering is generally a result of the depressed level of economic activity, not the rate of change, and continues long after the official recession ends. 3/
This paper formalizes fixed-quantities distribution analysis as the primary ingredient in the welfare (and cost-benefit) analysis of tax changes. The fixed-quantities change in tax is the change in tax ignoring changes in quantities but including changes in prices. 2/
Growth, which is a change in quantities, should generally be ignored in the welfare analysis. However, it does matter for estimating fiscal effects. 3/
The income tax does a poor job of taxing the income from wealth. Investment gains are taxed only when assets are sold. Gains on assets that are never sold during a taxpayer’s lifetime are wiped out for income tax purposes at death. 2/
The opportunity to choose when and even whether to pay tax on investment gains leads to widespread tax avoidance. Moreover, even when gains are taxed, they are taxed at preferential rates. 3/
Ok, pausing my twitter hiatus because @RichardRubinDC is posing questions that are at the very center of my work: if TCJA yielded a modest boost in the capital stock would that be enough to make it worth it? 1/
This is a (partially) answerable question but you must acknowledge that the purpose of tax cuts is to cut taxes, something our economic policy discourse largely refuses to do so. (I have thoughts on why, but we’ll save those for another time.) 2/
The tax system is a means of effectuating transfers from the public to the government. Tax increases impose burden on people to raise revenues. Tax cuts reduce burden at the expense of revenues. 3/
Tax economists will spend lots of time in the coming years studying TCJA’s impacts, but its policy merits depend far less on the precise results of these studies than on the basic fact that it was a regressive, trillion-dollar tax cut 2/
Was delivering tax cuts to the relatively well-off the best use of the $1–$2 trillion legislators devoted to the TCJA, or were there other more pressing needs? 3/