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Unrolled thread from @ottocrat #Bombardier #Brexit #snookered

14 tweets
A follow-up to my thread on #Bombardier yesterday. #Brexit means losing protection of EU’s trade umbrella, but it gets worse. /1
Being part of the EU helps us defend ourselves against aggressive trade defence policies of others, eg US punitive measures v #Bombardier /2
Like the US, the EU uses trade defence measures such as anti-dumping (AD) & counter-vailing duties (CVDs).… /3
UK industries have reaped the benefit of EU trade safeguard measures, eg Welsh steel mills:… /4
The European Commission’s robust defence of EU businesses is good news for them, bad news for competitors who use unfair trade practices. /5
But why would UK companies fall foul of EU trade watchdogs, I hear you ask? Good question! Remember these guys?… /6
Jeremy & John want out of the EU because they think the EU stops the UK using state aid to help its industry. You see where I’m heading? /7
Even outside the Single Market, if UK exporters want to access the EU they will need to respect EU rules or risk being Bombardiered. /8
I don’t see this angle getting enough exposure in UK debate. Within the EU, the UK enjoys shelter from US AD/CVDs. Outside, it’s exposed. /9
But outside EU not only is the UK exposed to the full force of aggressive US safeguards - it’s also exposed to potential EU safeguards! /10
The EU will continue to defend its producers robustly. After Brexit, UK could be the target rather than beneficiary of EU’s defences. /11
A future EU-UK agreement might prohibit such trade measures, but only in an EEA+ arrangement where UK agrees to all EU state aid rules. /12
But that wouldn’t be taking back control. And Brexists on the left and right want control over UK industrial policy. /13
But even then we’d have to respect EU state aid rules, if we want access to our biggest market, or risk AD/CVD measures. #snookered /14
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