1/ Covered DPRK issue in and out of govt for 28 years. Few thoughts to offer here as US careens toward cliff on the Korean Peninsula.
2/ sense of crisis mostly self-generated: product of Trump ego and insecurity mated to Kim Jong-un’s rapidly advancing nuke missile program
3) DPRK has had nukes for 11 years, and we have deterred them with both conventional superiority and overwhelming nuclear advantage.
4/ DPRK advancing missile capability has not fundamentally altered the strategic balance. But it is not without consequence. We need a plan.
5/ enhanced DPRK nuke capability strengthens KJU at home and abroad, builds his prestige, & undermines credibility of US alliance w/ROK & JN
6/ left unaddressed, DPRK nukes not only inject greater risk (escalation) into Korean Peninsula, but also embolden KJU to push boundaries.
7/ “solution” to threat is not available, at least for now. Denuclearization is unreachable in one step, and so is peaceful unification.
8/ absent “solution,” we must MANAGE and REDUCE the threat. This we CAN do, working with allies and China. No appeasement. No dropping guard
9/ MANAGING the threat begins with dialogue, proceeds to mutual de-escalation, confidence building, and modest security building measures.
10/ What is NOT helpful is engaging KJU on TERRAIN HE has chosen: threat, bluster, pomposity. Our @POTUS shouldn’t be playing KJU’s game.
11/ rather, goal should be to switch the contest into more favorable terrain - economy, information, culture, politics, sport, development.
12/ US and allies have OVERWHELMING superiority in soft power and smart power. We hold hard power advantage too, but KJU has one trump card.
13/ KJU can inflict terrible losses - millions, if nukes - and WILL do so rather than let us militarily defeat or politically absorb DPRK
14/ entire GDP of DPRK onmy about $40-50B USD - one good day gain or loss on US stock market. This doesn’t help US. It helps KJU. Anyone...
15/ ...who thinks KJU will kow tow to Orange Emperor because of our sanctions must realize that DPRK could inflict many times the $ damage
16/ ...on us than we have inflicted on him, even w/out starting war. Want our stock bubble to burst? Watch impact atmospheric H-bomb test!
17/ We shouldn’t be afraid of KJU, but neither should we back him into corner with no escape route. That is how we got Pearl Harbor.
18/ Trump deadly wrong when he tweets diplomacy can’t work w/DPRK. It is ONLY thing that can work - and it should be backed by mil pressure.
19/ Trump’s disdain for diplomacy is function of his ego’s need for glory and instant gratification. His mentality could launch WWIII.
20/ Trump is delusional about missile defense capabilities — even most optimistic assessments more guarded than Trump’s. He finds war doable
21/ someone must disabuse trump of at least that one fantasy. Sure, we have Military options on Peninsula, BUT NO GOOD ONES! I’ve gamed it.
22/ By contrast, we have MANY diplomatic options, including MANY GOOD ONES. None will “solve” the problem. Tough shit for us. Reality sucks!
23/ But is EVER there was a situation where pursuing the perfect was the enemy of the good, it is on the Peninsula, confronting KJU w/nukes.
24/ War is sure to be Catastophic. Fortunately, is is neither necessary nor inevitable. KJU doesn’t SEEK it. He knows he would lose in end.
25/ We should not seek it either! Trump’s current posture risks careening off that cliff. We need a better roadmap, and maybe a new driver.
26/ don’t take my word for it. Listen to @SecDef19. Lots of wisdom in that very large IQ brain! He’s been at the precipice. End.

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More from @FrankJannuzi

Feb 11
@shustry I’m not a European security specialist or a Russia expert. The courses I have taught on Russia were always team-taught, with me handling the China piece of a fun course on the Eagle, the Dragon, and the Bear.
But I have 35 years of experience on international security, with….
@shustry …the bulk of that time spent as a political-military analyst at State/INR and as Asia adviser to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Military analysis must always be put in context, and not every troop assembly means invasion is imminent. That said, experienced military…
@shustry ….analysts learn how to assess the I&W and reach a conclusion about what outcome is most likely…and they learn to screen out the noise of political posturing, last gasp diplomatic maneuvers, and disinformation campaigns.
Read 13 tweets
Oct 9, 2021
@SiddiqRex @anneapplebaum “Blackface” is not the same as casting white actors to play black roles. The latter is an appropriate subject to discuss, especially at the collegiate level, where raising uncomfortable subjects should be the norm, not the exception.
@SiddiqRex @anneapplebaum And as for “blackface,” should “birth of a nation” NOT be shown in a film class, or a class on race and history in USA, just because it contains those hurtful images? Have we become a nation incapable of inquiry into uncomfortable subjects? Really?
@SiddiqRex @anneapplebaum How are we honestly to confront America’s racist osf and continued racism/discrimination if we are incapable of examining it — in classrooms, churches, govt hearings, neighborhood meetings? How can we address a problem if we run from it?
Read 4 tweets
Jan 20, 2021
Marc / you really should read Mueller report someday. Then you would know Trump was NOT exonerated of colluding with Russia. It’s a basic fact you struggle with in your oped.
Btw, “resistance” didn’t mean Dems rejected trump was @potus washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/…
No Surprise that you hold Democrats responsible for “resisting” Trump’s assault on our democracy and fail to deem that effort virtuous. But I’d say four years of Trump has proven that those who resisted his agenda will go down as heroes; those who aided him as dupes.
Trump’s legacy? 400,000 dead from Covid, delusional refusal to accept a clear electoral defeat, rampant corruption, self-dealing, coddling dictators from Pyongyang to Moscow, abandoning champions of democracy (Navalny), trashing the environment, tweeting, golfing, spewing.
Read 9 tweets
Oct 24, 2020
Covid Thread from Seoul: What ROK got right. What we got wrong. Why there is NO EXCUSE for Trump’s catastrophic failure to respond to COVID.
Just spent five days in ROK for work. I was STUNNED by the contrast with USA. Everything is open. Schools. Restaurants. Stores. Offices.
HOW have they done it?
It begins with having an actual government that CARES about the health — physical, and economic — of its citizens. Trump KNEW we faced a deadly virus, but he cared ONLY about himself and his re-election. He LIED to us. Repeatedly. And is still lying today.
If Trump’s lying was not bad enough, he ALSO forced his government to lie — suppressing health experts when they tried to warn us, undercutting their advice on testing, tracing, & masks, touting bogus miracle cures, and putting another incompetent, his @VP in charge of response.
Read 22 tweets
Apr 25, 2020
As @potus @realDonaldTrump @StateDept tries to walk, chew gum, and ingest bleach at same time, they must contend with possibility that Kim Jong-un, leader of DPRK, may be incapacitated or even dead. DPRK probably has enough fissile material for 30-50 nuclear weapons. What to do?
Let me offer up some suggestions, as one who had to help puzzle out DPRK policy at State Dept and Senate Foreign Relations Committee from 1989-2012.
1) Coordinate all steps with ROK, and keep Japan and China in the loop. This is vitally important. Don't "go it alone."
Do (if death or incapacitation is confirmed):
2) Extend our condolences “to the people of the DPRK upon hearing the news of the death of Kim Jong-Un.” Keep it simple.
3) Reiterate USA commitment to the Singapore 2018 Joint Statement. Specifically....
Read 15 tweets
Mar 31, 2020
I don’t know if @SenatorBurr is guilty of the crime of insider trading. There is strong prima facie evidence to charge him.
But here is what I DO know.
Senators are public servants, and must be motivated in all they do by the public interest; NOT by their personal interests.
I worked in the Senate for 15 years. I had the chance to study and interact with 177 Senators over that time. I saw the good, the bad, the ugly, and the despicable, during my own period of public service.
Among the finest in terms of the spirit of PUBLIC Service?
Dan Inouye
Nancy Kassebaum
Dick Lugar
Barbara Mikulski
Joe Biden
John Warner
Patty Murray
Gordon Smith
Carl Levin

I am a democrat. This is not a partisan list. Public servants exist in both parties. In droves!
Read 12 tweets

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