So a wee bird has dropped into my inbox what a major newspaper has described as a report from HM Treasury. THREAD
It deals with the consequences of us leaving the EU without a deal - exactly what the "wing-growers" are pushing on us now. /1
"Wing-growers" because their strategy is to leap off a cliff and believe very hard that we will grow wings. Would you like some extracts? /2
Thought so. Coming right up. But first let me tell you that it dates to shortly before the Referendum vote. /3
Ok. Well, the headline is that it won't be as pleasant as @KateHoeyMP and her Hard Right pals told you last night. We won't grow wings. /4
We won't have a very open economy. Which isn't great if the magic plan is to be a great trading nation. /5
Woah! It won't just hurt our access to the EU. It will also hurt our access to over 50 other countries. How many does that leave left? /6
And in relation to the world's biggest market, we'll have worse access than Yemen. Dunno about you, but that doesn't sound good to me. /7
Man! 61% of our agri-food exports will face average tariffs of between 36% and 70%. Still, it'll be good for (inadvertent) set-aside. /8
How much of our economy is made up of services again? I can never remember. Really? That much? Ooh. /9
But, I mean, lots of countries trade on WTO terms just fine. Don't they? Lots of advanced economies? Are you sure? /10
So prices are gonna go up for consumers or our producers are gonna get shafted. But the wings. Think of the wings. /11
Still, at least we won't be a rule-taker. We'll make our own. Take Back Control and all that. Won't we? /12
Remember what it used to be like? If the big guy knocked over your pint he bought you another, because you had lots of mates. /13
To compete, we'll slash environmental standards and labour protection. "Caution - some might argue that we should emulate" that model. /14
And the great argument for Leaving? That the EU stops us trading with the rest of the world? /15
56% of our trade will be hit if we leave on WTO terms. 44% is quite a lot. 56% is even more. /16
Only 7% of foreign investors view a substantial decline in access to the Single Market positively. 80% would lose a reason to invest. /17
Farming subsidies. Gove can promise you'll keep them. But, you know: it's Michael Gove. /18
Up to 28.6% of profitable farms will become loss making. But that's fine because, you know, umm... it was on the tip of my tongue. /19
Still. Onwards and over. Just wait til you feel those little nubs, pushing through your shoulders, where the wings will grow. /Ends

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More from @JolyonMaugham

Jan 16,
A good piece from @JonUngoedThomas on some of the (many) problems with Sue Gray's inquiry. theguardian.com/politics/2022/…
You can see the Terms of Reference for her enquiry here.
Her primary purpose is to investigate whether there were breaches of the guidance. She isn't asked to look at whether a criminal offence was committed.
Read 7 tweets
Jan 13,
In a way, what the Met has permitted, parallel criminal law regimes, a normal one for normal people, and a special one for special people, is as profound an attack on the rule of law as Johnson's suspension of Parliament was on democracy.
I use the word "permitted" because I believe the Met is carrying out the will, be it expressed or just understood, of others, likely others in Cabinet.
The Met is gathering evidence in relation to a party attended by one of these two people but not the other. Why might that be?
Read 4 tweets
Jan 13,
"Sue Gray is an immensely capable investigator but one has to recognise that two of the principal actors here – the PM and the cabinet secretary, effectively her bosses – are now deeply implicated in the inquiry." theguardian.com/politics/2022/…
If the Met was investigating you for a criminal offence they would not agree to suspend their enquiry because you told them 'don't worry, I have asked a subordinate to look into it.' So why have they agreed to do it for Johnson?
Sue Gray ought to say 'given the elevated public interest I cannot conduct a truly independent investigation into whether the Cabinet Secretary and PM have broken the law.' And kick the matter back to the Met which is, notionally, independent.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 12,
The High Court has found that the Government's VIP lane - that channelled riches to its friends, donors and associates - was illegal. glplive.org/vip-lane-12012…
As regards the products supplied by the parties, the Court made, amongst others, the following findings. Pestfix's aprons:
More of Pestfix's aprons (Mr Jordan is International Sourcing Lead, PPE within the DHSC: see paragraph 103).
Read 11 tweets
Jan 11,
I wonder how the hundred people who received the email reconciled their silence with public service?
I don't think one can talk of a conspiracy, exactly. But the reliability of the tacit understanding that politicians and, sad to say, civil servants will put self-interest before public interest is responsible for so much of what is wrong in England.
Imagine how much better a country we would be if politicians didn't know that they could break the law and feather their own nests with impunity?
Read 6 tweets
Jan 8,
From Wes Streeting's refusal to pick a side I learned something quite important about his, and this Labour's, political philosophy: that however it styles itself, whatever language it speaks, it doesn't really have a thing it wants.
The effect of a philosophy that seeks to hold in balance conflicting forces, rather than choosing between them, is continuity and not change. In this sense, his, and this Labour's, philosophy is a conservative and not a dynamic one. I guess that's why Nick Robinson nodded along.
When asked about my ambition for Good Law Project I have quipped 'to diminish the speed at which the United Kingdom is declining?' His conservative Labour Party may be better for the nation than this radical Conservative Party but many of us want more for the country than that.
Read 5 tweets

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