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TheAgeOfBananas @iScrew
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Mood of Gujarat 2017 thread!
1. Modi’s Gujarat in 2017 has many surprises stored for both politicians and voters alike. Come election time and BJP realised years of propaganda has failed and people are up in arms. Come election time and Gujarat’s mostly Hindutva believing voters
2. are waking up to a new secular BJP. ‘Hum paanch hamare pachees’, and ‘Miya Musharraf’ spouting Modi has deployed National Ulema Council (RUC) and 50 ulemas under the leadership of Chairman Maulana Aamir Rashadi Madni. This is the same Maulana Aamir Rashadi who took out a
3. rally in protest of 2008 Batla House Encounter where Delhi Police claimed terrorists were hiding. Maulana Aamir staged dharna protest gathering thousands in Delhi’s Jantar Mantar & UP’s Azamgarh. BJP has lambasted Maulana at the time vehemently and much media coverage was
4. wasted on painting everyone who opposed Batla House as anti national. In 2017, Maulana Aamir Rashadi Madni has strangely become Amit Shah’s close friend. To an extent that Maulana has been summoned by the Chanakya Amit Shah to help beleaguered BJP in Gujarat.
5. Rajputs across the state have taken BJP to task in light of agitation against BJP’s state president Jitu Vaghani. Both Rajputs & Patidars have put up banners banning BJP leaders entry in scores of towns & villages. BJP campaigners get heckled and questioned. Even driven out of
6. towns stopping them from campaigning. In Ahmedabad, BJP’s two top state leaders IK Jadeja and Jasha Barad we’re challenged for their official statements criticising Rajput agitation. Both leaders publicly and categorically denied the statements saying the party had issued them
7. on Central High Command’s intimations and they had no say in it. They weren’t consulted or allowed personal opinion. Both leaders confessed they disagree with the party statements but were helpless.
8. On the other side, Shankarsinh Vaghela’s Jan Vikalp Party is not able to find candidates so now resorted to online candidature. Shankarsinh quit Congress with much noise, his last public meeting before quitting was attended by over 5000 supporters. Now he can’t gather even 50
9. So Shankarsinh will have to wait to find candidates after both BJP & Congress declare their lists. Then the disgruntled ones who wouldn’t find tickets from both parties will be picked up by Jan Vikalp Party. So Shankarsinh’s political future will be built on leftovers.
10. BJP isn’t battling with just external hostility in terms of unhappy Patidars, Rajputs, OBCs or Dalits, the party’s internal politics is in full swing too. Amit Shah faced a question about his sone Jay Shah by none other than a Doordarshan journalist. Amit Shah lost his cool
11. He rebuked the questioning journalist in press conference. Yesterday Smriti Irani again faced a question by a Doordarshan journalist. She openly scolded the journalist saying how can he ask her a question? She’s I&B Minister and Doordarshan is part of her ministry.
12. The real question is who’s behind these string pulling from the Govt. When even private media avoids asking uncomfortable questions how come Doordarshan isn’t obeying. Much speculation is rife about this in Gujarat.
13. A BJP MLA Karamshi Patel found himself in a disturbing incident of Dalit atrocities. Karamshi Patel’s son owns a petrol station just 30 KMs from Ahmedabad where pilferage of fuel worth Rs 6 lakhs was discovred. Rather than a police complaint and judicial enquiry the BJP
14. Politician entrusted their local witch doctor. The witch doctor got 5 Dalit accused putting their hands in boiling oil reciting Sanskrit Matras. Dalit youngsters suffered serious burns and were publicly shamed just two days ago.
15. Gujarat’s Dy CM Nitin Patel has ‘Dhobi ka kutta, na ghar ka, na ghaat ka’ these days. Let’s dig in to this a bit. When Anandiben Patel was CM and PAAS agitation surfaced, Nitin Patel was helping Patidars behind the scene. PAAS leaders have now grown in stature and out of
16. Nitin Patel’s control. North Gujarat’s Chaudhary Patels used to support Congress before. Nitin Patel provoked Patels as why shouldn’t they be included in reservation like Chaudhary Patels. The seed of discontent grew slowly among Patels. Chaudhries slowly shifted support to
17. BJP along with changing equation and time. Nitin Patel hoped that using PAAS agitation against Anandiben would catapult himself towards CM’s chair.
18. PAAS leaders have slipped out of Nitin Patel’s hands now. The flip side of it is that due to his support to PAAS agitation, Dalits, OBCs and Chaudharies are now Nitin Patel’s nemesis. So he’s lost support base on his own turf. Nitin Patel’s own people are buying land from
18. farmers forcefully. So farmers too have turned against him. Because of this turmoil Nitin Patel wants ticket from Ahmedabad instead of his home turf North Gujarat. But his own party isn’t playing ball now. They want to see Nitin Patel defeated.
19. After facing multiple revolts and agitations in Gujarat, BJP has turned sinister and a dirty trick of pitching communities one against another is being rolled out. Hindu Muslim communal card can’t be used now so easily and it’s actually various Hindu communities have turned
20. against BJP so now in a latest move, BJP has labelled agitating Rajputs as anti Patidars and conspiring to pitch Rajputs against Patidars. Divide & rule wine in a new bottle. A meeting with a Patidar faction is arranged in Bhavnagar to provoke Patidars.
21. Interesting development in Gujarat. BJP leaders & campaigners have to take police protection to visit people as people now welcome BJP with eggs. In Surat and Ahmedabad BJP campaigners were greeted with tearing pamphlets and throwing eggs.
22. Police force guarding BJP campaigners in Surat
23. A Patidar supporter Krunal Sardhara beaten up by BJP workers and hospitalised
24. Angry Patidar supporters on a vigil in Surat hospital where Krunal Sardhara is admitted.
25. Patidar supporters protest against BJP MLA Praful Panseria. MLA had to run away
26. After yesterday’s #GSTCouncilMeet & subsequent reductions in GST, in Morbi, Saurashtra (Gujarat) BJP’s MLA Kanti Amrutiya & his supporters attacked Morbi Ceramic Mfrs Association President for attending anti BJP protest saying why protest when GST is reduced now. #ViolentBJP
27. BJP MP Paresh Rawal visited his constituency in Ahmedabad after 5 years to campaign for assembly election. See how his own constituency’s ‘Vikas’ 😂
@SirPareshRawal had to wade through muddy potholes on roads pulling pyjama up and covering nose to avoid stench.
29. Breaking: Gujarat BJP state president Jitu Vaghani apologised to agitating Rajputs. Late last night at Amit Shah’s home in Ahmedabad, Rajput leaders and Jitu Vaghani patches up with Anandiben’s efforts. She’d been handling the deadlock along with Bhupendra Chudasama
30. BJP is facing trouble in at least 35 Rajput dominated seats. Jitu Vaghani was forced to tender unconditional apology and BJP has promised to withdraw all cases against Rajput leader Dansinh Mori who opposed Vaghani’s land grabbing in Budhel town, Bhavnagar district.
31. As news of apology by Jitu Vaghani and subsequent compromise spreads, Rajput youth isn’t happy or convinced. Rajput youth are openly calling BJP opportunist and untrustworthy. They allege that for months the community was targeted with false police cases, leaders shamed and
32. even attempted to divide community. It’s only after last week’s massive rally in Ahmedabad the BJP got scared and now making a fool of entire arajput community with this superficial apology. The demand of Vaghani’s resignation isn’t fulfilled yet.
33. Next few days will reveal what turn it takes and whether BJP succeeds in bringing the community under its control or not. For now the optics of appeasement have been showcased in haste but the entire Rajput community is yet to believe it.
34. In the other side as elections get nearer, both Hardik Patel and Alpesh Thakor have devised a strategy to take on BJP systematically. Hardik concentrated on Saurashtra & Alpesh on North and Central Gujarat. BJP has ensured no local or national media talk about their rallies
35. or public meetings. No photographs published but both these young leaders are effectively using social media and each of their rallies, meetings are flooded with attendees whereas BJP has to bring ‘paid supporters’ to show. Without any media coverage these two are effective
36. In a bizarre turn of events today, CM Vijay Rupani visited Vadodara Swaminarayan Sokhda Hari dhyan and made controversial comments about article 370 & Kashmir to send out Hindutva signals while a young man’s dead body remained hanging from a tree all along. No one bothered to
37. take it down and police remained busy with CM’s security but paid no attention to a young man’s suicide or murder. The dead body was ignored on the very route of CM Rupani’s visit visible to all. If Parliament can be called off for Gujarat elections, what’s a dead body?
Read this thread below to see the entire picture of Gujarat no mainstream media is showing 👇🏼
38. Breaking: BJP now says state president Jitu Vaghani says he has NOT apologised to Karadia Rajputs. BJP’s leader Jasha Barad held a press conference in Rajkot just now and declared Vaghani has not apologised. Very interesting twist in the tale. Ball is in Rajputs’ court now.
39. Jasha Barad said: “Jitu Vaghani Met Karadia Rajput community elders and agreed to withdraw cases against Dansinh Mori & others but did not apologise at all”
After the announcement, Rajputs have started staging protest against ‘Daga baaz’ BJP on roads in large numbers.
40. Coastal & Central Saurashtra’s tall BJP leader & Porbandar MP Vitthal Radadiya’s illness is shrouded in mystery and a closely guarded secret. Radadiya who wields formidable power in Rajkot/Porbandar farmers is down with illness for some time and is critical.
41. Radadiya has been shifted to Ahmedabad hospital from his native. Usually a health update/bulletin is issued when a public figure is admitted in hospital but no such information is being divulged in this case for inexplicable reasons.
42. BJP has realised that it's not the Hindu votes but Muslim votes that will be their saviour. In all practicality BJP has vigorously deployed Muslim clerics and Owaisi to influence Muslim voters. BJP has a reason for this. In Gujarat Muslims can affect 45% electorate (75 seats)
43. Let's crunch some numbers first. BJP has calculated there are 4000 villages and 135 towns/cities where Muslims can be an effective influence. 75 constituencies have Muslim dominance. 6 out of these 75 are such where Muslims can elect their preferred candidate easily.
44. 17 constituencies are such where Muslims can influence outcome and in other 24 constituencies they can defeat candidates they disapprove of. In total 28 Muslim dominated seats can be absolutely crucial. So BJP has filtered constituencies that have over & under 20,000 majority
45. Based on this analysis Amit Shah has laid down strategy like UP. Main reason behind this is mostly Hindu voters like Dalits, Patidars, Thakors (OBC), Tribals, Kshatriya, upper caste traders & farmers are up against BJP this time. So to fill the gap in missing votes,
46, Muslim votes have become crucial. BJP badly needs approx 40 lakh Muslim votes by hook or crook. To achieve this BJP had ditched Jan Sangh/RSS/VHP's Hindutva at once. Gujarat is divided in 4 zones according to strategy and each zone is allocated to BJP units of other states
47. UP BJP party unit is handling Kutchh responsible for fundraising, campaigning. Worth mentioning here that UP CM Yogi Adityanath's Guru bhai Sadhu Devnath has asked for ticket in Kutchh's Rapar seat. Sadhu Samaj has been pressurising BJP for this.
48. Interestingly RSS Parivaar like VHP, Bajrang Dal and especially Dr Pravin Togadiya are unhappy but silent. Their eyes are set on whether BJP gives ticket to Sadhu Devnath in light of party's Muslim appeasement. One theory is that in order to cover up EVM conspiracy this is
49. being accommodated in larger interest. BJP can for time being afford to lose support and confidence of Hindu groups but can't afford to lose power in Gujarat, according to observers.
50. Here's a list of constituencies where Muslims can make a difference.
Seats where more than 20,000 Muslim voters:
Khadia - 1,08,364, Dariyapur - 78,550, (Ahmedabad), Bharuch - 78,210, Vagra - 74,215, Linbayat - 64,363, Jambusar - 61,332,
51. Seats where Muslims can help win:
Godhra 48,368
Bapunagar 46,065
Vankaner 45,696
Surat East 45,771
Abdasa 44719
Siddhpur 42,769
Dhoraji 42,585
Raopura 41,616
Somnath 40,358
Anand 40,256
Vatva 37,990
Mandvi 37,626
Mahudha 36,356
Khambhalia 36,241
Dasada 34,782
52. Anjar 34,776
Seats where Muslims can defeat in straight fight:
Bhuj 32,698
Umreth 32,435
Jamnagar Rural 32,697
Savarkundla 30,120
Nadiad 33,479
Jamnagar South 32,709
Morbi 32,187
Kapadvanj 32,105
Thasra 32,735
Junagadh 30,453
Ankleshwar 30,116
Mangrol 30,552
53. Balasinor 29,892
Mahemdavad 29,785
Petlad 29,911
Vadodara City 29,803
Modasa 28,792
Dahod 27,404
Karjan 27,230
Akota 26,112
Gandhidham 25,404
Vadagam 25,680
Kadi 25,045
Matar 25,209
54. Seats where Muslim votes can make difference
Himmatnagar 22,718
Ellis bridge 23,906
Dholka 22,693
Idar 20,762
Dhandhuka 20,996
Dhrangadhra 26,497
Rajkot East 27,942
Jamnagae North23,248
Kodinar 21,003
Una 20,009
Dhari 20,809
Amreli 25,230
Lathi 20,370
55. Rajula 20,838
Bhavnagar East 20,811
Khambhat 20,391
Borsad 20,974
Lunavada 20,150
Santalpur 23,440
Kalol 20,679
Chota Udepur 20,115
Sayajiganj 20,179
Olpad 22,528
Surat West 23,989
Bardoli 20,871
Navsari 22,503
Ganadevi 23,008
Pardi 21,555
56.These statistics are from 2012 election so 5% change/difference can be taken into account.
In order to corner these Muslim votes BJP has now deployed Muslim clerics from Maharashtra, Rajasthan, UP, Bihar. A very large amount of fund has been allocated for this.
57. An ironical picture of Amit Shah sticking a poster of "I am Vikas, I am Gujarat" on a wall without plaster 😜
58. Just before Operation Hardik Patel Sex CD was rolled out, a disaster was averted by Amit Shah in Gujarat. Firebrand Hindutva leader Acharya Dharmendra Maharaj announced a press conference to 'expose' how BJP has abandoned Hindutva for Gujarat elections last week
59. Since 1995 VHP and Sadhu Sants have contributed immensely for BJP to capture Gujarat working tirelessly. But lately observing BJP's attitude towards Hindutva and soft Muslim appeasement, both VHP and Sadhu/Sant Samaj have been unhappy. The last straw was BJP inviting
60. Maulana Aamir Rashadi Madni and a group of Muslim clerics to help the party that has really upset VHP. Since Dr Pravin Togadiya is visibly sidelined, Acharya Dharmendra Maharaj took it upon himself to visit Gujarat and planned to address a presser to 'expose' BJP
61. Amit Shah found out about Acharya Dharmendra's plans and held a closed door meeting with him just in time. What transpired between the two is for Acharya to tell but after the meeting Acharya called off presser and left from Ahmedabad. Amit Shah got informed early last week
62. about Acharya Dharmendra's plans and subsequently got in touch with Acharya's Ahmedabad contact, builder & real estate developer Mukesh Patel. Acharya was on a three day visit in Gujarat. As soon as the meeting got underway, Dr Pravin Togadiya too got the whiff of it
63. Strangely Dr Togadiya wasn't aware of this meeting and according to sources, he wasn't even informed of Acharya's visit. Amit Shah and Acharya Dharmendra met RSS Parivar member Vasudev's home in Bhagya Laxmi Soc in Ahmedabad's New Wadaj area.
64. Once again BJP managed a 'coup' at home within the family just in time before their Hardik Patel sex CD launch and saved a major embarrassment
65. Hardik Patel's sex CD is out. Now begins tracing of its origin. Apparently Surat once agin is in focus. Interestingly Surat remains at the centre of all that happens in BJP. Surat is where Gujarat BJP's foundation was laid years ago. Twice BJP's internal coup against Modi
66. started in Surat. Amit Shah faced a very hostile Patidar protest earlier this year and had to abandon his function in Surat. Once again Surat is in focus. In fact BJP's birth place 'Soni Faliya' in Surat is here Hardik Patel's sex CD is believed to have been made.
67, A young Patidar industrialist is behind the sex CD project and funded it. Surat based pro BJP Patidar faction has provided technical expertise to make this CD. PAAS leader in Surat Dharmik Malviya has decided to trace the perpetrators electrifying Patidar channels to track it
68, Dharmik Malviya declared Patidars won't be affected with this dirty trick. Patidars fully stand behind Hardik and this personal attack will actually strengthen Patidar support. He quoted BJP's state unit Vice President Jasuben Korat who criticised this as an insult of women.
69. BJP's Jasuben Korat said this type of smear campaign will stop women from entering public life. KOrat is the only woman leader for BJP in Saurashtra. She pointed out time stamp in video of May 2016. Gujarat Vidyapith's Social Sciences Head of Dept Anandi Patel criticised
70. this type of personal mud slinging. She expressed concern that how can political parties preach about women empowerment when they insult women publicly for political purposes. This will dent aspiring women's confidence in stepping forward in politics.
71. Patidar leaders said their community's trust & confidence remains strong in Hardik Patel's leadership. They said even national leaders like Nehru, Mahatma Gandhi too weren't spared from smear. BJP should note that Hardik is not Sanjay Joshi or Varun Gandhi. Will fight back.
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