Korea done, Canada done, Japan done, Mercosur, Chile, Mexico well on their way, now getting started on NZ, Australia. The EU is setting the pace for extending free trade well beyond the WTO multilateral high water mark.
Of course, if you read this thread of mine last year then you'll know all about it. You'll also know that these things do not get done overnight, they take years, sometimes decades of preparation before negotiations can even start.
If the UK does indeed Brexit, it doesn't matter whether it's a hard, soft, or no deal Brexit, all those deals will have to be done from scratch. It will take years. What do UK importers and exporters do in the meantime? Leavers cannot answer this question except with platitudes.
She answers her own question: “At the heart of this contradiction is a fixation on status. To Brexit supporters, EU members are bullying equals or uppity inferiors who need to be taught a lesson on British pluck.” Whereas we’ll happily assume the position for our US dom.
It’s a genuine insight. The UK *is* obsessed with status. It’s a sickness. Your accent, your school, your pedigree, everyone’s insecure here. And yet Trump is the ultimate non-U interloper, there’s not a club in St James where he wouldn’t be instantly blackballed.
“If a paper like this was going to be published, they should have done so just before they triggered Article 50. … it is not acceptable now, with just weeks of negotiating time left.” Further can-kicking, leaving either cliff edge or total capitulation. politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/07/…
Seems the White Paper shows that HMG still hasn’t woken up and sniffed the coffee. Still bathing in faith-fuelled delusion both about themselves and about the EU. Right now, I’m afraid I’m upping my prediction of a no deal armageddobrexit to 75% likely.
I predict that in this scenario the only mitigation would be emergency extension of A50 period or emergency sectoral agreements for nuclear, aviation.
Starting with the conclusions (always the best bit)
1 Principled and practical are TM's new adjectves for #Brexit, which sounds conciliatory and is the sort of thing the EU do want to hear.
a Frictionless trade at the border (specific border not stated)
b UK out CAP & Fisheries, but in on crime & terror & shared prosperity fund
c No hard Border between NI & I, but protect the Union
d End of CJEU in UK, return "accountability" to the various elected assemblies
2) the UK already had the best deal of all EU member states. We may not have believed it but the other 27 nations did.
Anyone who thinks about this for more than 5 minutes would realise this
Cameron in fact managed to improve it further, but the press torpedoed his deal
3) the 4 freedoms are seen as indivisible by the EU27. Trucks & money having more rights to move than people is absolutely unacceptable to them. That's just a fact.
Anyone, Labour or Tory, who tells you we can get a great deal without free movement of people is lying to you
#Brexit 1) Thread - All Brexits are bad and what we voted for
It's often said by brexiters that "it's not all about economics"
However, the *actual* Leave campaign was almost wholly about economic arguments
With the leak of this 2-8% report those arguments are now trashed
2) We seem to have forgotten this however economics played a huge part in the Vote Leave campaign, making up over 2/3rds of the primary arguements. The clear message was we would at the least be no worse off and at best much better off. 4 of the 6 below state this clearly
3) & the fact is voters believed we would be no worse off. People prioritized immigration certainly, but against a backdrop of there being no consequences from Brexit - few are prepared to actually pay for ending FoM
A quote from The Guardian piece:
“One of the biggest fears of Britons in Europe is that they will remain “landlocked” in the country in which they now live, unable to move across borders to work for meetings, or for business contracts.”
1 What a quite remarkable week in the independent republic of Brexitlandia:
- the Government wins a vote to repeal the European Communities Act (which gives effect to EU law in the UK) even though the Maybot has said EU law will apply for at least a 2 year transition after we leave 😬
3 - Gov proposes legislating the day Brexit will happen even though it will happen in March 2019 automatically (unless UK & EU agree to extend it - but then UK may be stuck because legislating Brexit day may prevent the option of extending negotiations even if we want to do so)🙄
This evening in Germany, David Davis has demonstrated a frankly humiliating misunderstanding of even the basics of the EU.
A quick thread.
Firstly, even if somehow Angela Merkel were scared that the German economy could be crippled by, er, not being able to export freely to a smaller country like the UK, she cannot intervene to offer the UK a special deal. No one can.
Let us repeat: the EU is the Single Market and the Single Market is the EU.
Let us also repeat: the Single Market is a market of *rules*. This is the fundamental point David Davis has still failed to grasp.