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davealvord164 @davealvord164
, 79 tweets, 43 min read Read on Twitter
0/
"How f*cked is it?!?"
Ok, I'm hooked.
@HNIJohnMiller is on the Bourbon
First guy to examine this Bank angle

"It's the economy, stupid."
Is this is the real threat to Iran?
Banks?
Is he right?

Article 👇
threadreaderapp.com/thread/9483132…

Thread 👇
2/
@HNIJohnMiller
Does a In-depth Discussion on Iran's Banks
and how #IranProtests
might be impacted more by "It's the Economy, Stupid."
then actual protesters

Is he right?
Let's read.

I'm going meme this w/hot girls and guns
bc I wanna

Article 👇
threadreaderapp.com/thread/9483132…
2/
@HNIJohnMiller
Does a In-depth Discussion on Iran's Banks
and how #IranProtests
might be impacted more by "It's the Economy, Stupid."
then actual protesters

Is he right?
Let's read.

I'm going meme this w/hot girls and guns
bc I wanna

Article 👇
threadreaderapp.com/thread/9483132…
3/
Iran's banking system + economy, is fucked.
"How fucked is it?!?"

I'm just an asshole who knows accounting just a little...
(Narrator: He has a BA/MBA in Econ)

...who hasn't gotten to drink yet.
(Narrator: Kyle is 7x Drinks in)

@HNIJohnMiller 👇
threadreaderapp.com/thread/9483132…
4/
First, lets look at their currency, the Rial
.
.
What, what the F*ck a "Rial"?👇
xe.com/currencycharts…

(Narrator: Repeat, Kyle is 7x Drinks in. And "Rial" is the National Currency of Iran.)

@HNIJohnMiller 👇
threadreaderapp.com/thread/9483132…
5/
@HNIJohnMiller 👇
threadreaderapp.com/thread/9483132…

In 2012
the exchange rate with Rial/Dollar Died
came as sanctions were applied to Iran by Obama.

Obama wasn't 100% kid gloves with Iran

There were a few rocks in the snowballs.

And this was a BIG UGLY ROCK

csmonitor.com/World/Middle-E…
5/
In 2012
the exchange rate with Rial/Dollar Died
came as sanctions were applied to Iran by Obama.

Obama wasn't 100% kid gloves with Iran

There were a few rocks in the snowballs

And this was a BIG UGLY ROCK
👇
csmonitor.com/World/Middle-E…

@HNIJohnMiller 👇
threadreaderapp.com/thread/9483132…
5/
In 2012
the exchange rate with Rial/Dollar Died
came as sanctions were applied to Iran by Obama.

Obama wasn't 100% kid gloves with Iran

There were a few rocks in the snowballs

And this was a BIG UGLY ROCK
👇
csmonitor.com/World/Middle-E…

@HNIJohnMiller 👇
threadreaderapp.com/thread/9483132…
6/
Narrator:
This is really hard Bank Stuff
So I'm going to go EXTRA SLOW
bc Kyle is trying to make important point here,

Kyle:
With sanctions hurting the economy,
Iran decided to double down,
and completely devalue its currency

@HNIJohnMiller 👇
threadreaderapp.com/thread/9483132…
7/
Kyle:
With sanctions hurting the economy,
Iran decided to double down,
and completely devalue its currency...

Narrator:
Wait, what does "Devalue it's currency" mean?

Kyle:
Oh, I'm glad you asked.

#1- To Boost Exports

investopedia.com/articles/inves…
8/
Narrator:
Wait, how does "Devaluing your currency" help with Exports?"

Kyle:
When you devalue your own currency (Rial w/Iran)
this causes a country's own exports to become less expensive,
making them more competitive in the global market

Cheaper.

investopedia.com/articles/inves…
9/
Narrator:
OK, so by Iran "devaluing their exports" they got the price down.
I get that.
What's the #2 reason?

Kyle:
#2-Shrink Trade Deficits
Exports will increase and imports will decrease
due to exports becoming cheaper and imports more expensive.

investopedia.com/articles/inves…
10/
Narrator:
"Value"
Ok, if my Rial goes from .95 cents USD worth to .85 USD
means I have less buying power to buy stuff from outside Iran?
That helps me?

Kyle:
Sort of.
It's complicated, but that is what China does.
And it's sneaky.
And it works.

investopedia.com/articles/inves…
11/
Narrator:
I'm not seeing the problem here.
We dropped Rial from .95 to .85.
Ok, that's cool.

Kyle:
Keeping it simple
In 2013, Iran dropped it from .95 to .50

Narrator:
😳

Kyle:
Yeah, it's that bad
Understand that for now, we'll come back to it

investopedia.com/articles/inves…
12/
Narrator:
What's the 3rd thing? For Devaluing the Currency?

Kyle:
#3- Debt- It's a sneaky way avoid paying debt burden
especially to outside countries.

Narrator:
I don't understand this 100%
but it sounds like a short-term fix.

Kyle:
You got it.

investopedia.com/articles/inves…
13/
Narrator:
So the 3x reasons for "devaluing your currency."
1-Helps w/ exports
2-Helps w/ Trade Deficits
3-Avoid Debt Temporarily

Kyle:
Meh, mostly.

Narrator:
If this goes on a long-time, don't Normie Citizens get hosed?

Kyle:
Getting warmer...😏🍬

investopedia.com/articles/inves…
13/
Narrator:
I'm caught up. Keep going

Kyle:
Ok, if you get stuck
we'll slow it down as necessary.
Just raised your hand.

W/ sanctions hurting the economy, Iran completely devalue its currency which it was trying to keep pegged against the dollar.

investopedia.com/articles/inves…
14/
Narrator:
(Raises hand)
"Iran completely devalue its currency."
That isn't .95 to .50, is it?

Kyle:
Think dropping it from .95 to .25

Narrator:
Oh, shit.

Kyle
Forget the #'s
imagine everything you own is now worthless outside of Iran.

foxnews.com/world/2013/07/…
15/
Forget #'s
imagine everything you own is now worthless outside of Iran.

W/ sanctions hurting economy
Iran doubled down
completely devalue its currency
which trying keep up with the dollar

This caused the 2013 PLUMMET into near worthlessness.

foxnews.com/world/2013/07/…
16/
Narrator:
This is 2013, how does this impact 2018?
And #IranProtests ?

Kyle:
This is a slow-moving economic avalanche.
That was only prevented by Obama's Iran deal.

This is going to be a long tweetstorm, so please be patient.

Narrator:
Got it.

foxnews.com/world/2013/07/…
17/
@HNIJohnMiller 👇
threadreaderapp.com/thread/9483132…

Now, TYPICALLY, this isn't bad.
See, a country which devalues its currency makes its goods cheaper,
leading to a rise in exports
and an increase in foreign businesses investing in the country.

foxnews.com/world/2013/07/…
18/
@HNIJohnMiller 👇
threadreaderapp.com/thread/9483132…

That didn't happen.
Iran's GDP Died
Over time they may have been able to stabilize,
but they're an autocratic regime waging proxy wars against their neighbors.

Besides Russia and China, who would invest?

tradingeconomics.com/iran/gdp
19/
Narrator:
(raises hand)
I got questions.

Kyle:
I'm shocked.

Narrator:
So China does this money devalue stuff to screw with trade
which pisses off Trump/USA alot
and gets away with it?

Kyle:
Yes, China is very skilled at it
Well, for now at least.

tradingeconomics.com/iran/gdp
20/
Narrator:
China does this money devalue stuff and wins.
Russia does the money devalue stuff and wins.
But Iran can't.....why?

Kyle:
Say you are a Billionaire, would you invest in China?
Sure.
Trump/China are getting frisky, but it's fine

breitbart.com/national-secur…
21/
Narrator:
But China doesn't need us.
It's an overwhelming superpower.

Kyle:
Meh, think of a YUGE muscle-bound boxer.
China is strong, but vulnerable.
Notice how nervous they get around Trump and his economic Tax stuff

breitbart.com/big-government…
22/
Narrator:
Vulnerable. China could overwhelm us in 2 minutes. They have...

Kyle:
Stop.
Don't think #'s.
Think flexibility. If USA had completely shut down borders tomorrow
be 100% self-sufficent

USA could do it
China couldn't
and they know it

breitbart.com/taxes/2017/12/…
23/
Narrator:
Give an example.

Kyle:
Little History.
WW2,
When it got serious, Detroit went from
making fancy cars to airplanes, tanks, and ammo
in less then a month.

Not months.

China can out-bulk, out-copy anyone.....but flexibility is a problem.

motortrend.com/news/detroits-…
24/
Narrator:
They used only army people.

Kyle:
No Army people consulted
But 99% workforce was same civilians.
Monday, make Ford Cars.
Tuesday, make Tanks
It was THAT fast.

Americans didn't even blink.
China doesn't think like that

uso.org/stories/112-de…
25/
Narrator:
Bulk China's BULK allows them to survive currency devaluing stuff, right?

Kyle:
Yes,China is muscle-bound and flawed
but stable for investment.

So is Russia.
Despite all the flaws
USA and other countries have invested in Russia for years

foxnews.com/world/2017/01/…
26/
Narrator:
Russia does currency devaluing?

Kyle:
Meh, a little.
They CAN do it, but
unlike China who VERY blatant- Russia is more subtle.
Think stability, that's what matters,

Russia wants US dollars to invest,
but make profit, so it is more sneaky

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
27/
Narrator:
Wait, does the USA do it?

Kyle:
God, I wish.
Trump keeps threatening it, but...who knows?

TBH
I could argue that dropping the Corp Tax Rate from 35% to 21%
is 100% more dramatic/dangerous then any currency devaling stuff

breitbart.com/big-government…
28/
Narrator:
So if USA, Russia, and China does Currency Devaluing,
and Iran has 80 Million People, YUGE oil resources, ME location, talent, and tech.....why doesn't it work for Iran?

Kyle:
TBH, You are a Billionaire
Do you Invest in Iran?
No.

arabnews.com/news/457254
29/
Kyle:
Oh, you make planes and stuff
IN YOUR OWN COUNTRY
and SELL IT to Iran
but
you won't actually spend money to BUILD plants or companies inside Iran

Why?
In 2013, Iran isn't stable economically
In 2018, #IranProtests

arabnews.com/news/457254
30/
Narrator:
Wait, you said if I make outside the country.....and sell it to Iran...I get hit by the Currency Devaluation?

Kyle:
(Nods)

Narrator:
And If I build stuff INSIDE Iran....possible Gov just grabs it

Kyle:
(Nods) - Ok, let's keep foing...

arabnews.com/news/457254
31/
Kyle:
That didn't happen
Their GDP has been taking a rather bad plunge.
Over time they may have been able to stabilize,
but they're an autocratic regime waging proxy wars against their neighbors.

Besides Russia and China, who would invest?

tradingeconomics.com/iran/gdp
32/
Even Sanctions relief
w/ Iran deal didn't help, partly because they weren't given time,
partly because you know the whole funding terrorism and proxy wars and violation of the nuclear deal,
with @realDonaldTrump reapplying sanctions

@HNIJohnMiller 👇
threadreaderapp.com/thread/9483132…
32/
Even Sanctions relief
w/ Iran deal didn't help, partly because they weren't given time,
partly because you know the whole funding terrorism and proxy wars and violation of the nuclear deal,
with @realDonaldTrump reapplying sanctions

@HNIJohnMiller 👇
threadreaderapp.com/thread/9483132…
33/
So
Sanctions relief don't help
and
their currency is crap
Iran is economically isolated by sanctions, how could it get worse?
You need a Miracle?

Insert the IRGC!!!

(Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps)

@HNIJohnMiller 👇
threadreaderapp.com/thread/9483132…
34/
Narrator:
(Raises hand)
I have a question.

Kyle:
I'm shocked.

Narrator:
IRGC are troops...how do they impact economics?
+
What does IRGC stand for?

Kyle:
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps
Wait, you don't know what IRGC is, do you?

@HNIJohnMiller 👇
theguardian.com/world/2017/oct…
35/
Narrator:
I hear IRGC alot.
And I read alot in Wictor-land, but how do IRGC impact economics?
I mean 82nd Airborne doesn't run Citibank.

Kyle:
Oddly, imagine if 82nd Airborne DID run Citibank.
I'll attach articles, but basics.

@HNIJohnMiller 👇
theguardian.com/world/2017/oct…
36/
Narrator:
I know they are started with 1979 with the religious takeover
and they are better then Normie Iran troops and cops
and kinda hardcore on religtion stuff

Kyle:
Yeah, you got the basics.
I could dispute "better" -but basics

@HNIJohnMiller 👇
cfr.org/backgrounder/i…
37/
Narrator:
But you keep harping on IRGC and Money
That's like 82nd Airborne and Citibank
WTF

Kyle:
In USA, you'd be right
In Iran, think differently

'The 82nd Airborne as sponsored by Citibank"

Control the money, control the troops

@HNIJohnMiller 👇
cfr.org/backgrounder/i…
38/
Narrator:
Wait, how much money are we talking?

Kyle:
ALOT...don't raise your hand for sec and be patient. OK?

IRGC controls large swathes of the economy
with very little privatization being done

IRGC has free run of the country

@HNIJohnMiller 👇
cfr.org/backgrounder/i…
39/
Kyle:
Other part of their economic struggles is that
the IRGC controls large swathes of the economy
with very little privatization being done

IRGC businesses and banks dot the cities nationwide,
and are notorious for corruption.

@HNIJohnMiller 👇
cfr.org/backgrounder/i…
40/
Kyle:
Other part of their economic struggles is that
the IRGC controls large swathes of the economy
with very little privatization being done

IRGC businesses and banks dot the cities nationwide,
and are notorious for corruption.

@HNIJohnMiller 👇
threadreaderapp.com/thread/9483132…
41/
Kyle:
The big government banks are rather notorious for corruption to.
People's money that are invested in the
banks are being wasted in the millions by corruption.

Insert scheme one: toxic loans.

OK, let's slow down again.

@HNIJohnMiller 👇
threadreaderapp.com/thread/9483132…
42/
Narrator:
"Toxic Loans."
You mean like the 2008 Housing Crisis?
You know where
we gave million dollar house loans to people working at McDonalds?

Kyle:
Wow
That's surprisingly strong start
It's wrong 100%, but not in a bad way

@HNIJohnMiller 👇
ft.com/content/3d3ced…
43/
Narrator:
So "2014 Toxic Loans" are similar AND different from "2008 Loans?"
How?

Kyle:
OK, you got the 2008 Housing Loans
Bank was usually 100% sneaky
while the Normie "McDonalds guy" just wanted a house

Loan always defaulted

@HNIJohnMiller 👇
ft.com/content/3d3ced…
44/
Narrator:
2008 Loans designed to get started
and always fail.
Customers didn't know better.
Crashed the entire planet.

Kyle:
Now,
instead of idiot customers,
what would happen if BOTH sides were smart and acting in VERY BAD FAITH?

@HNIJohnMiller 👇
al-monitor.com/pulse/original…
45/
Narrator:
"VERY BAD FAITH?"
I'm getting Lost on
Iran "Toxic Loans" are, so you'd better walk me through this by inches

Kyle:
OK, understand how 2008 Loans happened

idiot customers who got hosed
and
sneaky bankers who made Billions

@HNIJohnMiller 👇
al-monitor.com/pulse/original…
46/
Narrator:
Look, I get the 2008 Lo....

Kyle:
No,
Stop.
Beak it down.
A loan is a "rich" person giving money to a "Not-rich" person
with the promise of getting paid back
with, say 10% interest (just for math sake)

@HNIJohnMiller 👇
al-monitor.com/pulse/original…
47/
Narrator:
So If I ask you for a Loan of 100k, say 10%

Kyle:
I'd want 110k back in 1 year.
Keep It Simple Stupid.

Narrator:
OK, I get that concept
but how does "2008-House" and "2014-Toxic" loans differ

@HNIJohnMiller 👇
al-monitor.com/pulse/original…
48/
Narrator:
how does "2008-House" and "2014-Toxic" loans differ?

Kyle:
"2008-House" are when Customer gets hosed, bank gets rich

"2014-Iran Toxic Loans" when
Customer and Bank BOTH KNOW the loan will never, EVER be re-paid

@HNIJohnMiller 👇
pocketsense.com/toxic-loans-59…
49/
Kyle:
"2014-Iran Toxic Loans"
Customer and Bank BOTH KNOW loan will never, EVER be re-paid

Narrator:
I loan you 50 million dollars and we BOTH know you'll never pay me back
That's stupid

Kyle:
It might be, but you do get the "How"

@HNIJohnMiller 👇
pocketsense.com/toxic-loans-59…
50/
Narrator:
I get the "How"
I just gave you 50 million dollars for free.
This is stupid.
You are an idiot.

Kyle:
Question #1- Did you REALLY lose the 50 Million Dollars?
Question #2- Stop and think like a Criminal for 10min.

@HNIJohnMiller 👇
pocketsense.com/toxic-loans-59…
51/
Narrator:
In 2008
Wait, the bankers got a cut, didn't they?

In 2014,
If I'm the Banker, if we both know it's bad,
don't I get a cut of the Toxic Loan?
like 10% of 50mil?
like 5mil?

Kyle:
God
I love making Normies into Criminals

@HNIJohnMiller 👇
politico.com/agenda/story/2…
52/
Narrator:
How wide-spread was this problem, across Iran?

Kyle:
YUGE.
Ex, 60 million dollar loan on a 6 million dollar house
use the house as collateral, not pay it back
and the bank is out 54 million when they repossess the house

@HNIJohnMiller 👇
threadreaderapp.com/thread/9483132…
53/
Narrator:
No, no
the Iran SEC must have stepped in....wait, are you having a Heart attack?

Kyle:
😂🤣😆
Iran SEC
Oh, You're adorable
There's no Iran SEC.
The government, military, and banks were all having an orgy w/o no protection.

@HNIJohnMiller 👇
threadreaderapp.com/thread/9483132…
54/
Narrator:
But 2008 loans made everything collapse
How could Iran possibly keep this...

Kyle:
Wait for it...wait for it...

Narrator:
...Obama's Iran Deal.
OMG.
That was the heroin financial hit.

Kyle:
I love it when babies grow up

@HNIJohnMiller 👇
thefederalist.com/2016/05/09/ben…
55/
Narrator:
But 180 Billion only goes so Far
Wait,
Tell me they Fixed the "Toxic Loans" issue

Kyle:
(smirks)

Narrator:
Oh, shit.
Iran doubled down because
in 2016 Iran knew HRC would win.

Kyle:
(single tear running down his cheek)

@HNIJohnMiller 👇
thefederalist.com/2016/05/09/ben…
55/
Narrator:
Protests don't matter
Iran is out of money

Kyle:
Hmm, wouldn't say they DON'T matter

Remember Stranger Things, season 2
When keep burning the entrance
Not knowing the YUGE tunnels under the base/town?

That's the Toxic Loans
The Tunnels
56/
Kyle:
Then, there is other kind of fraudulent loan,
where take advantage of the country's desperation for ANY kind of economic growth by proposing building a factory or something
and taking out a huge loan with low interest rates.

@HNIJohnMiller
threadreaderapp.com/thread/9483132…
57/
Kyle:
Theeeeen sticking it in an account at a
different bank with a high interest rate.
They pocket all the money,
the bank that loaned the money gets virtually nothing.

@HNIJohnMiller
threadreaderapp.com/thread/9483132…
58/
Kyle:
People want to bitch about income inequality?
These loan fraud schemes are workable because
if you're powerful and connected to the regime
you can pull in tens of millions in loans.

If you're not? 30,000 USD, tops.

@HNIJohnMiller
threadreaderapp.com/thread/9483132…
59/
Kyle:
Gov banks are f*cked,
but because they're backed by the government,
surely they'll be insured right?

Why people have been trusting them
Exceeeeept their cash reserves now dangerously low
Banks depend on loans getting paid back

@HNIJohnMiller
threadreaderapp.com/thread/9483132…
60/
Narrator:
(Raises hand)
I have a Question

Kyle:
I'm shocked.

Narrator:
This is like that movie, "It's a Wonderful Life?"
Where there is a "Run on the Bank?"

Kyle:
You are incorrect.
This clip is from.... Iran, May 11th, 2018

6min
61/
Narrator:
I sense sarcasm?

Kyle:
OK
"It's a Wonderful Life" scene is kinda similar

Instead of George's friend losing the money accidently

Now Think Toxic Loans
And the Money is embezzled and GONE.

No fancy speech from George gonna save Iran

6min
62/
So, the Iran banks are now trying
to do a fire sale of all of property
used as collateral by the bad loans in desperation
bc people might start withdrawing their money

This is going to cause runs on the banks.

gov banks will collapse

@HNIJohnMiller
threadreaderapp.com/thread/9483132…
63/
So what about the IRGC and other private banks?

Well, who the hell do you think takes out
those absurd loans from the government banks?

@HNIJohnMiller
threadreaderapp.com/thread/9483132…
64/
The IRGC and private banks are mostly ponzi schemes
run through fake companies.

Their owners take out huge fraudulent loans to capitalize THEIR banks
because they're either politically connected or high up in the IRGC

@HNIJohnMiller
threadreaderapp.com/thread/9483132…
65/
Kyle:
owners take out huge fraudulent loans
capitalize THEIR banks
bc they're either politically connected or high up in IRGC

Narrator:
been reports that I never understood before
protesters ONLY burning the IRGC banks

Kyle:
--nods--

@HNIJohnMiller
threadreaderapp.com/thread/9483132…
66/
Kyle:
IRGC offer absurd interest rates to attract more money
then after awhile like all good ponzi schemes they collapse
and the owner makes off like a bandit
immune to prosecution due to being high up in the IRGC

The Perfect Crime

@HNIJohnMiller
threadreaderapp.com/thread/9483132…
67/
Kyle:
Protestors now are targetting the IRGC banks for burnings
which are mostly symbolic as there's nothing actually THERE.

They're just symbols of the corruption crippling Iran's economy.

Narrator:
Symbols Have Power.
Ask Pepe

@HNIJohnMiller
threadreaderapp.com/thread/9483132…
68/
Kyle:
Protestors now are targetting the IRGC banks for burnings
which are mostly symbolic as there's nothing actually THERE.

They're just symbols of corruption crippling Iran's economy.

Narrator:
Symbols Have Power

Ask MAGA Hats

@HNIJohnMiller 👇
threadreaderapp.com/thread/9483132…
69/
Kyle:
HOWEVER, if only a few people start withdrawing their money
from the government banks,
who again are DESPERATE to try to recapitalize
by doing a fire sale of their bad assets,
and suddenly they're not able to...

Ruh-Roh

@HNIJohnMiller 👇
threadreaderapp.com/thread/9483132…
70/72
Kyle:
Chaos. Sheer bloody fucking chaos.

People will have had their savings torn from them.
Poor, middle class, unconnected rich.
IRGC members themselves will have their savings torn from them.

@HNIJohnMiller 👇
threadreaderapp.com/thread/9483132…
71/72
Kyle:
The government, who owes money
to the government banks from loans,
is BROKE.

Narrator:
There are rumors most of the
2018 protesters are Middle-Class and Below

In 2009
It was Middle-Class and above.

@HNIJohnMiller 👇
threadreaderapp.com/thread/9483132…
72/72
Kyle:
Bank runs happen fast,
they happen hard, and when
they do if not carefully managed governments fall.
/end

@HNIJohnMiller 👇
threadreaderapp.com/thread/9483132…
72/72
Kyle:
I have absolutely no doubt in my mind the IRGC
as soon as they find out their next paycheck isn't
coming won't help with the 'carefully managed' bit.
/end

@HNIJohnMiller 👇
threadreaderapp.com/thread/9483132…
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