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Pete North @PeteNorth303
, 20 tweets, 4 min read Read on Twitter
1. Imagine a universe in which the Rees-Moggs of this world get their way and we just have an FTA with the EU and a deal with the US. Producers of foodstuffs find that since the US deal, produce banned by the EU but allowed into the UK means their risk rating goes up.
2. That suddenly means 50% of vehicles have to report to a continental inspection post at their own expense. The sudden increase in workload for inspection posts means they haven't the officials/inspectors to spare.
3. So there could be an inspection taking between 2-5 hours depending on the load, with anywhere up to an 8 hour wait just for your turn. Keep in mind that the driver has to be paid for this time on the road.
4. So you've then got a major increase in wages and inspection costs. If you;re sending fresh produce, with that kind of delay then you don;t even bother. It will spoil before it even reaches the intended market. With the added overheads, you're priced out of European markets.
5. Then just to make things interesting the staff at the French border inspection post decide its all a bit too much work and they need more staff on better wages. There's a shortage of qualified inspectors so they can charge what they like.
6. Then, because the French are, well, French, they will realise they have the UK over a barrel and go on strike leading to massive tailbacks. Drivers don;t even set off from the UK. They don't deliver, lose their contracts.
7. UK hauliers then complain to the British government and the French government then tells the UK that if they want speedier customs then there will need to be a bilateral agreement where the UK either supplies the staff or pays them an annual fee. Which won't be small.
8. they will play silly buggers just long enough to cripple UK food exporters and JIT manufacturing because they are only too happy to cannibalise UK market share. The UK won't be able to reciprocate since it is dependent on food imports and would find itself in front of the WTO
9. The joke of it being that as far as standards go, we won't have substantially diverged because the EU uses the same global standards. We'll have just lost our share of the European market for no discernible reason.
10. All the while the UK is excluded from the UK aviation market and UK allocations of landing slots are auctioned off to competitors. All good fun. The same happens with UK pharmaceuticals and medicines for similar reasons.
11. In this it would be wrong to say we would lose all our trade in goods in that some companies will find ways around the system, but these will be corporates. SMEs will likely be eviscerated.
12. So while you can't look at an economic impact assessment and say it's a load of cobblers, because it all depends on what the final deal looks like, if we take the government at their word that we are leaving the single market and diverging then this is a certain consequence.
13. We can, therefore, say with reasonable certitude that UK exports will be uniquely damage and if at the same time we unilaterally drop tariffs then there;s a good chance that UK manufacturing and food production will simply pack up altogether.
14. All of this though will be beyond the grasp of snake oil salesmen like Rees-Mogg, who are in effect gambling with every sector in the real economy on the vague assumption that financial services deregulation will make up the difference.
15. This is what will cause the sharpest decline in movement of people from the EU in that there will be no real financial incentives for people to come here. There might well be higher wages in these sectors but fewer overall jobs. Tories can kiss goodbye to their jobs miracle
16. Rees-Mogg, however, thinks that such trade can be compensated for by "free trade deals" with the rest of the world. This ignores the fact that we already had FTAs with them via EU and since we'll have dropped tariffs there'll be few ways of persuading them to do likewise.
17. I wish there were a way of lodging this with the government and the Brexiters but I'm afraid there isn't. I've tried over 4 years to no avail and just about every professional up in front of a select committee has said the same.
18. But it's not possible you see, because we're dealing with demented ideologues who've skimmed a few pages of Adam Smith and that's all they think they need to know about trade. Morons basically.
19. And this is why I have no time at all for the BrexitCentral idiots or the vacuous bimbos in the media (of both sexes) like Julia Dunning-Kruger. They're as dim as any Marxist Corbynista. That's right kids. Rees-Mogg and Corbyn are functionally the same. Impervious to reality.
20. If you want an enhanced trading relationship that preserves free movement of goods then it requires regulatory harmonisation and contributions toward the upkeep of those regulatory systems. That's the EEA. A base FTA will have miserable consequences.
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