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Matt Osborne @OsborneInk
, 19 tweets, 5 min read Read on Twitter
A thread about third party politics. 1/16

Conor Lamb beat Rick Saccone by just ~625 votes out of more than 228,000 ballots cast.

Libertarian Party candidate Drew Miller got 1,379 votes. Had half of them voted for Saccone, he would have won.…
The naive indulgence of third party politics works out this way ~99.9% of the time in the real world under our system of elections.

Hate it all you want. Scream, shout, cry us a river at the unfairness of it all. You might as well demand to hold the heavens in your hands. 2/16
This is not a conspiracy, it is MATH. Using NUMBERS. Numbers do not hate you for being woke.

The GOP attacks the voting access & organizing power of Dem constituencies on every available front 24/7... because MATH.

Binary? Yes. 1, +1, +1. +1...

The naive indulgence of third party politics works out this way 99.99% of the time in the real world. This is how Donald Trump and Paul LePage and yes, Conor Lamb win elections, especially close ones.

This is called the "spoiler effect." 4/16
The Libertarian Party is an instructive example of the Koch brothers' strategy to pull the GOP right by making Republicans run *to their right*

This MATH-BASED concept of elections is similar, and related to, "the Overton window." 5/16
If Saccone got just half of the Libertarian voters in PA-18, Republicans and Trump would be crowing about a victory.

Instead, Trump TV says that Lamb won because he ran to the right, and Saccone did not go far right *enough.*

See how that works? 6/16…
All of this is easy to weaponize. Vladimir Putin boosted Jill Stein and Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump to attack Hillary Clinton.

He calls it "special warfare," but it's really just the applied MATH of our elections system. 7/16…
The Tea Party was never really more than a GOP brand rebuilding program in the wake of Bush that achieved their aims. Its legacy is the "Freedom Caucus."

Watch, it will happen again after Donald Trump. Steve Bannon is doing the math and making plans. 8/16
A majority vote is needed for all legislation.

Within our system of elections, the legislative majority *is a coalition party.*

In multiparty systems, the legislative majority is a *coalition of parties.*

They work out in similar ways. 9/16
How did Israel's multiparty politics go so far to the right? Because a *coalition of parties* allows small, extremist parties to pull the legislative agenda of that *coalition* to the right.

Our system allows small, extremist groups to affect a legislative majority. 10/16
Putin attacked a universal weakness of western democracies.

The Kochs leverage this universal weakness in our western democracy to reduce its democratic character.

West Bank settlers are empowered by the universal weakness in Israel's western democracy. 11/16
"But wait!" I hear you cry. "This Senate banking bill made me so angry, I even shared a meme on Facebook about holding Dem senators who voted for this POS responsible."

Yet the GOP will never hold banks responsible, so you need a Dem majority in both houses. 12/16
So count on St. Petersburg troll farms to put out exactly such memes, which work even better since they attack red-to-purple state Democrats in a year that Dems have a tough Senate map to defend.

See how that works? See who benefits most? 13/16…
The GOP will gladly let Russia attack this midterm election to avoid accountability.

Trump is letting Russia attack the 2018 election to avoid accountability.

The Kochs attack elections all the time to avoid accountability in the form of taxes. 14/16
"Woke" propaganda has the net effect of disappointment.

Disappointed voters stay home, or are susceptible to voting for a third party.

Either way, the status quo wins.

Want change? You need a working majority. 15/16…
To hold Putin, Trump, and GOP accountable, get over your disappointments in Lamb and Doug Jones and Dianne Feinstein, etc.

When you see that meme again 30 times in October, question the source and their purpose in sharing it.

Don't vote third party.

Be +1 for change.

BONUS! This is exactly the attitude that a Russian bot wants you to have. It is defeatism argued as perfectionism. It is the enemy of change, and in this environment, it is anathema to democracy
This thread unrolled, for those who prefer it that way…
EXTRA CREDIT! "Progressives" whose "theory of change" involves continual creeping and sniping on Democratic organizers achieve very little progressive change because they are not really interested in progress

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