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Matt Osborne @OsborneInk
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June 29 would be the perfect day for Vietnam veteran Robert Mueller to drop an impeachment recommendation. Independence Day = Tet Offensive.

Thread about the influence of insurgency doctrine on the Trump-Russia scandal and investigation. 1/23

Vietnam became a country by drawing a French army into Điện Biên Phủ where the Viet Minh could surround and destroy it.

Mueller studies his enemies. Like Võ Nguyên Giáp, the military genius who won that decisive battle, he has created facts on the ground to surround Trump.
Before he died, Giáp explained how his resistance tactics worked. It was important to unite the country against France by first attacking everywhere, then concentrating his forces to surround and annihilate them…
"The enemy wanted to concentrate their forces," Giáp said. "We compelled them to disperse."

While Trump dickered and dithered, Mueller was questioning oligarchs, seizing phones, and building a body of evidence against the alleged POTUS

"By successively launching strong offensives on the points they had left relatively unprotected, we obliged them to scatter their troops all over the place in order to ward off our blows."

Mueller has cast a widening net, e.g. Michael Cohen.…
Paul Manafort did not need to discuss the details of a quid pro quo in that famous Trump Tower meeting to know how all this stuff worked. He knew. It was second nature to him.

He's the linchpin of criminal conspiracy & could perhaps put Trump in prison.

Every new indictment further surrounds Trump with damaging facts. Mueller has key witnesses cooperating with the special counsel.

He can corroborate who met, when, where, and what they talked about before he ever talks to Trump or reports to Congress…
For example, Mueller knows whether any of these oligarchs was in Prague at all in August of 2016 and whether they were ever in the same room with, say, Michael Cohen

Mueller also knows when and where sanctioned Russians were talking to Manafort.

He already knows why Trump loves Michael Flynn so much.

He has tax returns. In all likelihood, he already knows about Donald Trump's sex silence slush fund.…
"But wait," I hear you cry. "There are just enough morons thirsting for liberal tears that it won't matter. There's no way Congress will impeach Trump."

Mueller understands that impeachment is a political battle. That's why he wants to drop his report around the 4th of July.
Mueller wants to avoid the Jim Comey effect by giving American voters plenty of time to digest his report before the November midterm.

And then he wants opening statements against Manafort in September, creating new facts on the media ground.

He has thought all of this through
Upon issuance of a report accusing him of criminal collusion, i.e. conspiracy, Trump will likely try to fire Mueller.

Who understands that July 4th is a patriotic holiday.

Who knows that activists are organizing to take to the streets.

Which brings us back to Giáp
The general continually stressed the patriotic nature of his war -- a people, united, can never be defeated. Giáp was able to operate freely and mobilize an army because the nation was united.

Which is the problem, right? Republicans are still resisting Mueller's reality.
Whatever the result of his report, he wants it to have a small-d democratic imprimatur -- and then to continue the prosecution of key figures in the conspiracy.

Mueller, a patriot and counterinsurgency veteran, is creating a reality that will be impossible for anyone to ignore
Lest you think I am overstating the influence of insurgency warfare theory on the actions of the "deep state" RE Trump and Russia, note how fellow counterinsurgency veterans H.R. McMaster and Jim Kelly seem to have prevailed on sanctions…
Furthermore, Cambridge Analytica and Russian Facebook pages and Macedonian fake news websites and Breitbart are virtual, modern-day examples of applied insurgency doctrine. Steve Bannon is also a devotee of military history and writing…
Robert Mercer's dark money campaign against the American civic contract and the international order is an example of applied "4th Generation Warfare" or "hybrid war" theories, too. Examples abound…
Dominionism, the central unifying ideology of the right, laid the groundwork for the "alt-right" over a very long time, widening the "Overton window" of mainstream acceptability for hate speech. Rousas Rushdoony, Paul Weyrich were conscious insurgents…
As @johnrobb, who writes about this stuff all the time, observed during the GOP primary: "Trump is able to pull this off because he’s not running a political campaign. Instead, he’s running an insurgency." Russia was already helping him.…
Robert Mueller has laid his plans with full appreciation for the legal, political and information warfare dimensions. Putin, Mercers, et al have brought this multifaceted approach to their war on American democracy

For example, by aggravating American culture wars, Russia deepens our partisan tribalism and weakens our civil society. Only a public consensus against Russian aggression can prevent us from turning into Ukraine.

I'm 100% sure Mueller understands this…
By contrast, it is very unlikely that Devin Nunes and Jeff Sessions will be able to indict Hillary Clinton by June-July, or ever. The special counsel will be creating more and better facts on the media ground all the way to November.

It's not clear Trump understands this. /End
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