I turned up in them. I know. It's nuts.
In them a staffer at the Center for American Progress emailed Podesta and billionaire Tom Steyer to brag about getting me removed as a writer for Nate Silver's 538.
Hey! That was one of the papers we had commissioned for the Hohenkammer workshop. But I knew it did not include that mysterious graph nor any analysis of temperatures and disasters. That is really weird, I thought.
In 2015 Pulitzer Prize winner Paige St. John quoted me innocuously, only to have others calling for her to be fired for doing so. She wrote:
In 2015 I was the subject of an Congressional "investigation" (w/ 6 other academics), accused of secretly taking Exxon money. (Cue evil music here)
I suppose that was the entire point.
(Note: I never have taken any money from energy companies. I was of course cleared in the "investigation.")
I guest it served its purpose, it led to me being investigated by Congress.
Little did I know that CAP was on the case, behind the scenes.
It was wild. It was pretty lonely for a long while.
Anyway, score a "Victory for Climate Truth!"
That was the story part.
When I return, likely in the AM, we will turn to science & evidence. I'll present the latest assessment report findings & updated data on trends in global & US weather extremes. The science is still cool even with the drama
Here is the most recent published update of our normalized hurricane loss dataset (from journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.117…) which shows that after adjusting for more people & wealth, losses show no trend. But is is accurate? Let's check next...
Trends in independent datasets should match up, if they don't, there is a bias.
Below are trends in US hurricanes & Cat3+
No trends in either. A good match.
Our normalization is unbiased compared to climate data🙏
Over the past half-century, the US has been lucky compared to the more distant past, even with the big storms of recent years.
Discussed in more detail here: theclimatefix.wordpress.com/2018/01/09/glo…
Global data dates to 1970 but goes back further for individual basins
As with hurricanes, we compared the normalization to climate data & are confident that it is unbiased. Some big years, but no increasing trend.
This is what the science says & it's solid⬇️
Have disasters become more costly because of human-caused climate change?
The answer is clear: ➡️No⬅️
It's not a welcome conclusion in some powerful circles.
But it is what the science says.