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The Coastal PO @CoastalPO
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We’re here to hear what are the real deal prospects & real world impacts for all UK #FisheriesInTransition rather than any political or media spin about it.
EU official told him early on in #Brexit negotiations, “You [UK] have no cards, except fish.”
EU taking hard line in negotiations as most of EU sees no reason not to do so, as they believe they’re holding all the cards (except fish) #FisheriesInTransition
‘s view (shared by at least one Dutch politician) is that EU should learn lessons of history (Versailles 1919) & not seek to crush UK aspirations in negotiations #FisheriesInTransition
Transition likely to be longer than 2 years. Not aware of any free trade agreement being negotiated with EU in less than 5 years #FisheriesInTransition
Barriers need to be built on both sides & Home Office needs to develop complete new systems (not a good track record) #FisheriesInTransition
So what after transition? UK’s red lines leave Canada style free trade agreement #FisheriesInTransition
Question is we will get something better than the deal Canada have? #FisheriesInTransition
EU terrified we’re going to set up a kind of Hong Kong model to undercut EU using lower standards so will require capacity in any deal to punish UK if we try to undercut them. #FisheriesInTransition
Strong desire from EU to say “no cherry picking” which fits with UK. #FisheriesInTransition
Real / low politics mean that the EU does (privately) want to hurt UK - but not too much. Not in their interest for a leaving state to go great guns straight off #FisheriesInTransition
EU not as interested in economics as they are in the politics. They care much more about the political / moral principles that are the foundations of the EU and believe good economics flow from them. #FisheriesInTransition
What about current a vs. no “customs union” debate? Politically difficult for Tory Party (can’t do your own deals, trade rules taker not maker) but no CU difficult for UK’s industries - including fishing #FisheriesInTransition
Judges it’s 50/50 whether Parliament will require UK to stay in a CU (believes parliamentary majority in favour of a CU) #FisheriesInTransition
And then there’s the #Brexit Northern Ireland border problem, which is a great source of uncertainty #FisheriesInTransition
And will the UK’s red lines soften? Possibly. And if UK did soften, capacity to divide the EU 27?
Does not believe “no deal” scenario is possible as consequences too dreadful to contemplate for both sides so believes that there will be a deal. #FisheriesInTransition
Does not believe #Brexit can be stopped as trying to do so would make UK public opinion shift in favour of voting leave i.e. more hostile to EU #FisheriesInTransition
A deal will be done & on time but likely to be worse for UK than current state of play #FisheriesInTransition
Tom Appleby of @Bluemarinef asks “Did we lose control by issuing Article 50 too early?” @CER_Grant Article 50 author says it can be revoked, hotly debated by other lawyers, so kind if yes (I paraphrase) #FisheriesInTransition
There is a suggestion that any extension of transition might be sector by sector, how might that apply to fishing? @CER_Grant Could be applied, quite likely but will involve difficult & serious negotiations. #FisheriesInTransition
(PO Chairman) Will fishing get sold down the river on the way out as it did on the way in? @CER_Grant Politically very difficult for the Tory govt to do, but doesn’t mean can’t happen in some form & unlikely to be black & white in practice #FisheriesInTransition
Relative stability due for negotiation in 2019 between Faeroes, Norway & EU (without UK). Will that weaken EU’s negotiation? @CER_Grant Possibly. Both EU & UK responsible for undermining that by behaving badly. #FisheriesInTransition
Asks about impact on devolution. @CER_Grant Advises (but does not back) SNP govt. Does not see that Scottish govt can do much more than complain and whinge about what UK govt doing #FisheriesInTransition
CEO Mike Park What was the driver for UK politicians to promote idea that UK was going to get whatever it wanted right before caving to transition? They must have known. @CER_Grant Good question. I don’t know. It was obvious all along. #FisheriesInTransition
What about David David saying deal 90% done? @CER_Grant No idea about that either. The details of a complicated future relationship cannot be anywhere near done eg 5 years minimum for agreeing an FTA #FisheriesInTransition
Up next on likely trade deals and their prospective impacts on fishing #FisheriesInTransition
Getting more fish for UK fishermen great, but not necessarily so great if we don’t have anyone we can sell it to, 80% UK catch currently being exported #FisheriesInTransition
Tariffs are not the problem that fishing needs to worry about, it’s the regulatory barrier that is the biggest worry #FisheriesInTransition
No customs union, even with a free trade agreement, means that products will have to prove that they qualify for export under the FTA. This exists in ALL free trade agreements. #FisheriesInTransition
Ithinks the EU’s food hygeine regime is THE biggest obstacle to UK fish exports. #FisheriesInTransition
Food exports to EU have to go through specific “border inspection post” ports (not Calais, not Eurostar) and c.20%+ shipments HAVE TO be subject to checks #FisheriesInTransition
What’s investment timescale to upgrade ports to “border inspection posts”? Well, nobody can or will start until we all know the details of any final deal as nobody knows what or where we need to #FisheriesInTransition
UK changing its red lines - particularly over customs union - would help, but there would STILL be regulatory checks #FisheriesInTransition
How about remaining in the single market? Norway is in single market (no regulatory checks) but not in #CFP (Not on table due to UK’s red lines) #FisheriesInTransition
We see substantial risks as c98% of our scallops / nephrops are exported to EU. Worried about coming “rules of origin” for fishing? @SamuelMarcLowe Difficult as those rules may be good for car industry bad for food. Some precedent for phasing #FisheriesInTransition
U say going beyond 21 months. Why? @SamuelMarcLowe I was being generous as 21 months a challenge. Fishing needs longer as infrastructure just won’t be ready to handle UK exports of fish #FisheriesInTransition
Tom Appleby @Bluemarinef What about being held to ransom by Walloons et al? @SamuelMarcLowe Seems likely EU will push for CFP is dead long live the CFP. Belgium’s federal structure does mean Walloons etc gets two bites at it #FisheriesInTransition
answering Tom Appleby @Bluemarinef We shouldn’t assume any agreement will sail through each & all of the EU 27’s national parliaments #FisheriesInTransition
Barrie Deas @NFFO_UK Fisheries getting specific deal as a subsection of the overall trade deal unhitching EU’s linking of access to waters & markets? @SamuelMarcLowe Agreement will be a framework. Trade one subsection of framework, access to waters another #FisheriesInTransition
Mike Park @SWFPA Could EU parliament vote it down? @CER_Grant No chance currently as @MichelBarnier very careful to align his efforts with EU parliament’s wishes. #FisheriesInTransition
Benefits of transition? @SamuelMarcLowe No way ever negotiations would conclude in A50 window which would have left UK fish products (80% exported) high & dry. Plus, UK fishing NEEDS time to develop export infrastructure #FisheriesInTransition
Why so confident of zero tariffs for fish? @SamuelMarcLowe Joint interest & precedence matters i.e. CETA. They will want to link fish quota & access to markets, which could throw a spanner in the works #FisheriesInTransition
Should fishing effort / area restriction issues be part of deal negotiations? @SamuelMarcLowe EU will hold UK to its “fair playing field” standard that it will want includes over these issues #FisheriesInTransition
Potential more fish benefit balanced against UK’s access to EU market, particularly with aquaculture in mind (c.£600M UK exports, no quota benefit to aquaculture)
Tom Appleby @Bluemarinef Transition benefits for EU? @CER_Grant UK leaving creates problems for both UK & EU farmers / fishermen. EU would welcome UK staying in customs union / single market @SamuelMarcLowe Neither UK or EU ports have capacity for this #FisheriesInTransition
Amy Hill @OceansCE Writing environmental standards & non-regression into EU/UK deal? @SamuelMarcLowe EU will require all such provisos to be enforceable but doesn’t know how #FisheriesInTransition
“Temporary” partition of island of Ireland by “commission” 100 years old & still in force. Could a similar commission solve EU NI border problem? @CER_Grant No time to agree a commission. NI border problem we can’t see solution to #FisheriesInTransition
What will alter if we end up with a different administration to Teresa May’s? @CER_Grant Brexit will still happen. Labour more in favour of bits of customs union / single market @SamuelMarcLowe Same regulatory problems #FisheriesInTransition
of @instituteforgov CFP one of most prescriptive regulations. What will happen now UK leaving, particularly under devolution? #FisheriesInTransition
Devolution allows poss of fishing policy divergence within framework agreed at UK level (pros & cons to this) #FisheriesInTransition
On fisheries UK govt says fishing needs UK legislation (from London) to determine management & exploitation #FisheriesInTransition
2014 Scottish regulation suspending quota trades out of Scotland an example of the problems that arise with political not legal agreements #FisheriesInTransition
Not much agreement yet apparent, so we’re still not sure how fisheries will be managed by the 4 governments #FisheriesInTransition
to now provide “a touch of realism” to the fishing debate. Personal view: unreal expectations given to UK fishermen by politicians. #FisheriesInTransition
UK EEZ: only 2 places where we reach 200 mile limit are off Scotland & narrow band away from the Lizard, Cornwall #FisheriesInTransition
UNCLOS Article 62 UK MUST maximise return & give access to others if UK can’t catch everything in our EEZ #FisheriesInTransition
Fisheries Act 1981 Section 3 writes EU fisheries law into UK law. Repealing CFP means UK will have no legislation in place to replace it #FisheriesInTransition
Great Repeal Bill adopts CFP as UK not EU law. Allows time to replace CFP withUK FP #FisheriesInTransition
Estimates could take 20 years to replace EU legislation with UK legislation #FisheriesInTransition
Transition extends CFP over UK with no voice or vote. You’ll be complying with CFP for 2 years & lengthy period after #FisheriesInTransition
Application of EU law (CFP) as UK law by UK supreme court may lead to a divergence between the two. Uncertainty. #FisheriesInTransition
Access to waters under UNCLOS Article 62? Maybe zonal attachment? Maybe relative stability 2? #FisheriesInTransition
3 judicial reviews pending on draft revision of 2012 concordat. Most difficulties may face may be internal UK problems, not external EU problems. #FisheriesInTransition
Not sure that Brexit provides UK with capacity to address foreign owned UK flagged fishing vessels #FisheriesInTransition
Does think we’ll see toughening up of economic link provisions #FisheriesInTransition
Thinks neighbouring states will want to renegotiate 6-12 mile limit access currently provided by London Convention. #FisheriesInTransition
It is inevitable that transition (or transition just called something else) will extend beyond 2020 and for a long time #FisheriesInTransition
Barrie Deas @NFFO_UK Does Norway model obvious model for UK? @ThePlaice4Law My view is no time by 2020. My view likely further extension of transition from 2020 #FisheriesInTransition
Paul Joy (NUTFA); our problem is surviving transition with so little quota & landings obligation in January 2019 @ThePlaice4Law It’s a legal certainty it will happen. No real chance to challenge. Don’t know the answer. #FisheriesInTransition
Jerry Percy (PO Chairman); could July 2019 end of London Convention benefit UK fishermen during transition? @ThePlaice4Law View of lawyers in room is no, except as negotiation going forward #FisheriesInTransition
Mike Park @SWFPA Can you see a situation where a struggle develops within UK over access to one another’s water? @ThePlaice4Law I can unfortunately see scope for disharmony yes #FisheriesInTransition
Tom Appleby @Bluemarinef Challenge for Northern Ireland as such small waters? @ThimontJack Yes. Particularly given no current NI administration to represent NI in negotiations. #FisheriesInTransition
Charles Clover @Bluemarinef What are the latest positions of the devolved administrations & UK govt re devolution? @ThimontJack Fallback position is UK govt may have power to push legislation through in this unusual situation. #FisheriesInTransition
Next month will be crucial for devolution. @ThePlaice4Law The goodwill is not there so yes, scope for shenanigans. #FisheriesInTransition
Now Andrew Kuyk of UK Seafood Alliance. What might transition mean? UK a huge deficit market for fish i.e. UK imports 90% of fish we eat. #FisheriesInTransition
Andrew Kuyk; UK & EU import vast majority of fish they need therefore vital to keep those trade flows open #FisheriesInTransition
Andrew Kuyk: supply paradox. Import 90% of what we eat (from outside EU), export 80% of what we catch (to the EU). #FisheriesInTransition
Andrew Kuyk; current expectation is likely low to no tarrifs. Will it be frictionless? Depends on deal done e.g. in or out of single market / customs union #FisheriesInTransition
Andrew Kuyk; reality of experience will be dependent on goodwill & politics allowing business as usual to carry on #FisheriesInTransition
Andrew Kuyk; EU very clear that whole EU UK trade deal dependent on access to UK waters #FisheriesInTransition
speaks now; opportunities & challenges, allocations, friction points #FisheriesInTransition
Better fisheries legislation? More fish? Not sure about this as decisions dependent on politics & co-operation. #FisheriesInTransition
Challenges? No common cross sectoral position in UK #FisheriesInTransition
Allocations; UK plans to move towards zonal attachment, EU based on relative stability. Change likely to lead to conflict & possible legal actions #FisheriesInTransition
Relative stability set in 1983. It’s an exceptional provision providing a share of the catch as rights of States, not individuals #FisheriesInTransition
Friction points? “Special access regimes” built into CFP as is London Convention in reality. Going forward these will need to be renegotiated #FisheriesInTransition
The longer he looks at how UK to replace CFP, the more complicated he thinks it is and the longer he thinks it will take #FisheriesInTransition
Backs up @SamuelMarcLowe about dangers & difficulties of non-tariff, non legislative barriers to trade #FisheriesInTransition
Aware of any international legal disputes? @law_rich Cites lots, but usually about conservation and management #FisheriesInTransition
Under UNCLOS Art 62, who decides proper exploitation? NGOs might set zero as proper? @law_rich Basis of evidence & negotiation #FisheriesInTransition
Barrie Deas @NFFO_UK Who decides on legal disputes during & after transition? @law_rich As independent coastal state, it’s UK. During transition UK has devolved continued responsibility to EU to act in our interests? #FisheriesInTransition
Tom Appleby @Bluemarinef Can UK still access EU court of justice if unhappy with EU’s actions? @law_rich Maybe. Complicated. #FisheriesInTransition
Mike Park @SWFPA Could any deal with EU affect discussions with Norway etc? @law_rich I don’t know, what do you think? Mike; yes. #FisheriesInTransition
What will happen if over fishing becomes evident & threatens stocks? @law_rich Nothing will work if no secure & sustainable resource base established #FisheriesInTransition
(PO Chair) promise of Brexit quoting minister was hundreds & thousands more fish etc. @Seafarers_UK report evidences small scale hardships. Has transition snatched away opportunity to better balance quota? #FisheriesInTransition
Balance of fishing opportunities has always been a Member State competence. There was an opportunity to renegotiate relative stability within the EU #FisheriesInTransition
Tendency to set fishing opportunities above scientific advice levels? @law_rich Hard to address, particularly if there’s no consensus across borders #FisheriesInTransition
Thank you for today. It’s much more complicated than we thought & is likely to take much longer than we thought. #FisheriesInTransition
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