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Sam Vinograd @sam_vinograd
, 11 tweets, 4 min read Read on Twitter
Iran (un() Deal Day THREAD: 1) @realDonaldTrump hasn't been consistent on a lot, but he has been consistent on the Iran Deal. He's been against it for years and called it a "disaster" and "insane" on the campaign. So this time he's not flip flopping.
2) Pulling out of the deal may have been on faulty analysis of what we could achieve vis-a-vis a better deal. Wonder what @CIA @ODNIgov assessed was or was not achievable and if @POTUS thought he knew better
3) Also wondering whether this approach was based on any analysis that NO deal is better than THIS deal or was this an @WhiteHouse negotiating tactic that misfired
4) Based on past behavior, I think @realDonaldTrump may try to present a "partial" pullout scenario whereby he violates the agreement by not certifying but leaves the door open to negotiate during the period in btwn now AND when sanctions go into effect
5) He may try to add some window dressing to this pullout, but there's no possibility of a gray zone here. Sanctions are what matter to Iran. Sanctions relief was their whole incentive for signing.
6) Even if it takes a few weeks for sanctions to go into effect, the UNITED STATES will feel an immediate impact: our personnel/ assets in the region are at greater risk of Iranian retaliation;
7) Iran is now on side with other signatories and we're the bad guy; we are the scapegoat domestically in Iran again too (regime can reblame us for their economic mismanagement)
8) Different scenarios could unfold including (share common theme of US being isolated): A) we don't waive sanctions and Iran restarts their program; we don't waive sanctions and Europe convinces Iran to stay in the deal
9) Real implications for global economy. Oil prices will raise undoubtedly (helps Russia btw) and if we don't waive sanctions then foreign companies doing business with Iran could be subject to US sanctions unless we issues waivers for them. Risk another trade war?
Tune into @CNNnewsroom @KateBolduan to hear more at 11 #Iran #JCPOA
10) I actually think Iran's security increased today. They're viewed as the victim. We're viewed as the aggressor. They're viewed as reliable. We're viewed as untrustworthy. All of this is a self inflicted wound.
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