Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
This ad-free page was gifted by a premium user
Qasem Al-Ali Profile picture
@AlaliQasem
Apr 22 • 7 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
The oil crisis is worse than anything in modern history.
Nobody is panicking.
That’s the problem. 🧵
The world uses 100 million barrels of oil per day.
Right now, 15–20 million of them are missing.
That gap is larger than the entire daily oil consumption of the United States.
And you haven’t felt it yet. Here’s why 👇
Every country has been burning through emergency stockpiles to mask the shortage.
JP Morgan & Kpler data shows the last Gulf shipments reached their destinations between April 8–19.
That window is now closed.
The buffer is gone. The real shock starts now. Image
Let’s put this in context:
1973 Embargo → 7% supply offline → prices +300%
1990 Gulf War → 7% supply offline → prices +75%
2026 Hormuz → 15–20% supply offline → prices +120% futures, +220% spot
This isn’t a repeat of history. It’s in a category of its own. Image
The stock market is at ALL-TIME HIGHS.
Main Street consumer sentiment is at historic lows.
One of them is wrong.
Historically, it’s never been the person filling up the tank.
Oil is in everything. Not just your gas tank.
Fertilizer prices are already spiking — that hits food prices in ~6 months.
Gasoline is at $313. CPI at 3.3% and rising.
Last time gasoline spiked like this, inflation followed with a lag. Image
By summer:
⛽ Gas — higher
🛒 Groceries — higher
🏭 Everything made in a factory — higher
The best case scenario from history gave us a -21% market crash and a recession.
Today the market is pricing zero correction and zero recession.
Someone is very wrong.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Qasem Al-Ali

Qasem Al-Ali Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @AlaliQasem

Qasem Al-Ali Profile picture
Apr 24
What should oil actually be trading at right now?
I ran the math. The number is uncomfortable.
Here’s the model 🧵
In 2020, COVID removed ~9% of global oil demand.
The market response:
— OPEC+ cut 9.7M b/d
— Price moved from $65 → -$37
— A $102 swing downward
9% demand shock = $102 price move.
In 2026, Hormuz removed ~14% of global oil supply.
Same math, opposite direction:
14% supply shock ÷ 9% demand shock × $102 =
$159 move upward
$65 base price + $159 = $224/bbl
That’s the raw number. Before adjustments.
Read 8 tweets
Qasem Al-Ali Profile picture
Apr 23
In 2020, COVID destroyed demand for oil.
The world cut production by 9.7M b/d to absorb the shock.
In 2026, Hormuz destroyed supply.
But this time — nobody can cut demand by 15M b/d.
That’s the problem. 🧵
COVID at its worst:
— Demand collapsed ~20M b/d in April 2020
— OPEC+ cut production 9.7M b/d — largest cut in history
— Oil went negative for the first time ever
— Inventories filled to the brim
The solution: cut production to match demand.
Simple equation.
2026 Hormuz crisis:
— Supply missing: 15–20M b/d
— Global inventories down 255M bbls since Feb 27
— Drawing at 5.1M b/d and accelerating
The only solution: destroy demand to match supply.
But you can’t mandate lockdowns for an oil shortage. Image
Read 8 tweets
Qasem Al-Ali Profile picture
Apr 21
The oil market is speaking two different languages.
Physical market: screaming scarcity.
Paper market: pricing peace.
One of them is wrong. Here’s which one Image
Dated Brent (physical): $106
Brent June Futures (paper): $94.57
A $11.43 gap — and it’s not random noise.
The physical market is experiencing severe supply tightness, with spreads that typically move by cents now expanding to $10, $20, or more.
This is the market screaming at you
As @JavierBlas put it best:
“The physical market was pricing scarcity. The financial market was pricing the end of the war.”
The gap is so extreme you can buy a barrel for $78 in Kansas — or pay $286 in Sri Lanka.
Same commodity. Same planet. Different reality.
Read 7 tweets
Qasem Al-Ali Profile picture
Apr 20
The oil market just passed its breaking point.
And it doesn’t matter if the Strait of Hormuz opens tomorrow.
Here’s why the damage is already done 🧵
Even if a ceasefire is signed TODAY:
— Floating tankers need 30–40 days to offload
— VLCCs rerouted to the US need 3+ months to return
— Onshore ME storage needs to drain ~200M bbls first
The supply gap doesn’t care about peace deals
Cumulative storage lost from Hormuz closure:
End of April → 1.2 billion bbls
End of May → 1.59 billion bbls
End of June → 1.98 billion bbls
This is 4x larger than any supply outage in history.
There is no playbook for this.
Read 8 tweets
Qasem Al-Ali Profile picture
Apr 19
Want to understand Iran’s negotiation strategy today?
Don’t read the news.
Read history.
The Persian playbook is 2,500 years old.
And it has never failed them.
🧵
491 BC. Darius the Great wants to conquer Greece.
Before sending a single soldier —
he sends diplomats.
The message: “Give us earth and water.”
Translation: Submit. Surrender. Or we come.
Many Greek cities complied without a fight.
Athens refused. Executed the envoys.
Sparta threw them into a well.
Persia learned who would fold under pressure —
before the battle even started.
Diplomacy as intelligence. Not peace
547 BC. Croesus of Lydia — the richest king on earth —
asks the Oracle of Delphi:
“Should I attack Persia?”
Oracle: “A great empire will fall.”
He attacked. His empire fell.
What history doesn’t tell you:
Cyrus had already spent years cultivating Babylon’s priests,
Lydia’s internal enemies, and regional allies —
before drawing his sword.
By the time war started, it was already over.
The battlefield was just the formality.
Read 6 tweets
Qasem Al-Ali Profile picture
Apr 18
70% of American farmers can no longer afford the fertilizer they need.
This isn’t a headline from a war zone.
This is happening inside the United States. Right now. During planting season.
A thread 🧵
This comes from an official survey by the American Farm Bureau Federation.
5,700+ farmers. All 50 states. Conducted April 3–11, 2026.
Not an estimate. Not a projection.
A snapshot of American agriculture in real time.
Since Hormuz closed, fertilizer prices collapsed any sense of normalcy:
— Urea: +49%
— UAN: +38%
— NH3: +32%
— Farm diesel: +46%
Farmers don’t set these prices.
They just pay them.
Read 7 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

Send Email!

:(