I’ve been quiet publicly, active privately on the DCCPA and US policy the past couple months.
tldr: DCCPA must be significantly amended or paused until next year. Measure twice, cut once. Let's get US crypto policy right.
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2/ CONTEXT:
Messari has a vested interest in seeing the crypto industry grow & succeed. Our aim is to reduce information asymmetries & promote transparency to level up the market.
Our customers include exchanges & DAOs. Balanced policy is critical to long-term success for both.
3/ We've been working on crypto data analytics & disclosures standards for the past 5 years.
Our work helped inform parts of SEC Commissioner @HesterPeirce's "Safe Harbor" proposals for tokens, which Rep @PatrickMcHenry proposed to codify as law via a bill introduced last fall.
4/ Today, we do a version of quarterly reporting on behalf of 40+ token communities.
We aren’t just waiting for top down regulation to solve our industry’s problems. We’ve been actively building solutions that address the spirit of existing consumer protection laws.
5/ Messari has no lobbyists. I am the only person at the company who spends much time in DC.
My goals are to "do no harm", and help where we can in educating policymakers.
As a US-based entrepreneur, I also want US policy to be the best crypto policy in the world.
6/ WHAT’S NEW:
During DC Fintech Week, we hosted a meeting with some of our investors & policy partners who have been active in evaluating the DCCPA.
We've done thematic events in the past (policy & elsewhere). But the timing of this one drew interest.
7/ We tried to help people exchange ideas in an off-the-record setting. I treat these discussions (whether I host or attend) as private.
Given the Block scoop, DCCPA redline leak, and the very online debate that’s happened last week, I’ll share my thoughts on the state of play.
8/ It’s time to SLOW. DOWN.
DCCPA is a good faith effort, but if it is to become law it needs serious and significant fixes.
9/ ORIGINAL SIN:
The DCCPA was born with original sin.
It aimed to cover crypto intermediaries, but extended to DeFi. Intentionally? Inadvertently?
Doesn’t matter. DeFi’s inclusion is now a “thing” and the bill will be hard to fix this year as a result.
10/ A DCCPA that is constrained to centralized intermediary oversight OR a more thoughtful, comprehensive bill (Lummis-Gillibrand?) OR something new entirely is what industry should be aiming for.
That’s unlikely to happen in the lame duck.
Most folks in DC agree with this, BUT
11/ There are fault lines:
a) Politics: Is it possible to get a "good bill" done next year, or is the choice Dec '22 or 2025?
b) DeFi Rulemaking: Is DCCPA a net positive? Can DeFi survive rulemaking?
c) Oversight: Is CFTC vs SEC oversight even solved with this bill?
12/ ON POLITICS:
Some (exchanges) don’t want to make “perfect” the enemy of the good, and think an imperfect bill is better than the status quo (roughly SBF’s view).
Others (VCs & DeFi) think the current bill could kill DeFi outright and prefer to wait (roughly my view).
13/ The primary political issue is that many view the probability of comprehensive legislation as low in the next Congress.
Now that DeFi is being considered, certain lawmakers won’t let it go “unregulated” as part of any new bill.
This will likely remain a sticking point.
14/ There’s no “selling out” of DeFi.
It’s just that the Ag Staff’s proposed “fixes” aren’t great, and exchanges (FTX in particular) have little to lose, and much to gain if DCCPA is enacted...even with subpar DeFi language.
Protecting DeFi is not their priority. Survival is!
15/ SBF is more right than not about the state of play in DC. I agree with him on most of his political points.
And he unequivocally won the debate with Erik Voorhees where it matters right now: in DC circles.
Why am I on the other side of him on DCCPA then?
16/ ON DEFI RULEMAKING.
SBF is always very careful with his words.
A specific, important phrasing he uses frequently is “I wouldn’t push this bill if *I thought* it would hurt DeFi.”
Spoiler! He trusts the regulators and the rulemaking process more than others do.
17/ One argument is that the state of token / DeFi regulation is already bad. (True.) Even the worst outcomes of rulemaking under DCCPA would only be marginally worse than status quo. (Likely true.)
But when choosing between a bullet to the head or chest, you fight for the gun.
18/ The choice for DeFi…and the broader token ecosystem is not a choice right now.
The right move is to delay DCCPA this Congress, work extremely hard and constructively on policy in the new year, and prepare to retrench and fight in court if gridlock ensues (ugh).
19/ No one wants options 1 or 3!
But given the choice, exchanges will choose 1 and DeFi / investors will choose 3.
That’s what’s driving the tension right now. It’s a clean split with well-intentioned, earnest people on both sides.
20/ ON OVERSIGHT AUTHORITY.
I think reasonable people can disagree about where to set defaults on policy, and how to game out the political probabilities of DCCPA passage.
But the final question is “what does DCCPA actually solve?”
21/ Is CFTC oversight good for crypto?
There’s a good argument that exchanges would benefit from the clarity and default oversight of the CFTC when it comes to crypto’s two largest markets: BTC and ETH.
Spot ETFs would be more likely. Institutions could join the fun.
22/ But then, we’ll run into issues with assets #3 to 10,000...indefinitely.
The current DCCPA language essentially provides the SEC with veto power over whether assets beyond BTC & ETH should be considered digital commodities or securities.
We give up a LOT to get very little.
23/ Keep in mind, we also have the avenue of litigation if there is a medium-term stalemate.
Ripple has mounted a gutsy defense against the SEC. Grayscale is suing the SEC. Coinbase is suing the SEC. There’s a pattern of overreach!
Crypto is not to blame. 90 year old laws are!
24/ This is a quick reaction.
I’ll have more to say in long-form in my end of year report, and as this legislation develops.
For now, let me say, I appreciate SBF, the trade associations, the DeFi policy leads, and the staffers who are trying to wrestle with these issues.
FIN/ Regulate crypto intermediaries & custodians!
Regulate stablecoins!
Create safe harbors, disclosure norms, and fit-for-purpose rules that allow innovation to flourish while safeguarding users.
Stop overly broad, stifling laws!
If it comes down to it:
"No DeFi. No Deal."
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3/ In early 2018, I started Messari with @robustus.
We wanted to track the fundamentals of the wildly overheated market (actually considered starting an activist "Big Short" fund called Icarus) and XRP made no sense to us at the time, especially.
One of the only disappointing points of the Trump transition process so far has been the Game of Thrones that’s emerged for the top economic job in the cabinet: Treasury Secretary.
This may be the most important cabinet nomination in U.S. history. Our reserve currency is on the line, and regardless of who gets the nod, President Trump will need a “team of rivals” to execute on his full policy vision given the complexity of our current debt situation.
The Stakes
The most important role the next Treasury Secretary will have is selling bonds. That may sound basic, but our success in rolling over our debt without major disruptions or interest rate spikes will determine whether Trump’s reform-minded cabinet navigates a soft landing for the economy, or we have a debt and currency crisis that stunts the momentum of the Trump 47 team, and sets back the America-First agenda’s long-term success.
The dollar’s reserve status is best maintained if there is a steady hand and surgeon at the helm of Treasury who can project market confidence and act as a low-key foil to Trump’s brash and zealous reform persona.
Given that federal spending is out of control, but our debt markets and export status of the dollar (cheap financing) are healthy, Treasury isn’t what needs a shake up.
Most investors tell their companies not to innovate or speculate when it comes to their balance sheets. Instead, it’s best to innovate on core products, and keep a healthy, conservative treasury. In the government’s case, that would mean modernizing defense (and ending expensive wars / forcing “allies” to pay their fair share in military alliances), making people healthier to reduce healthcare costs (MAHA), and slashing general waste (DOGE).
If a peace agenda, MAHA, and DOGE do reduce our deficits, then confidence in Treasuries will spike, and we’ll have higher demand, lower interest rates, and longer-dated debt. A Treasury that projects consistency, stability, and reliability would be the yin to the “slash and burn” yang of Trump’s other major departments.
That stands in stark contrast to today’s Treasury, where Janet Yellen is putting our deficit on a high-interest credit card, racking up expensive short-term debt to pay for record-breaking spending. The 10 year Treasury’s rate spike this fall confirmed that our bond issuances are overwhelming global demand. We’ll only reinstill confidence in our credit-worthiness through spending reform.
But if demand remains weak, we’ll have no choice but to “monetize” the debt via bond purchases by the Federal Reserve (QE). That, in turn, would lead to renewed inflation.
The Trump economic team will be tasked with fulfilling Trump’s three primary economic priorities: cutting taxes (and reforming the tax code), enforcing tariffs (fair trade agreements), and embracing crypto (modernizing our financial and tech economy). A contact who attended the AFPI event at Mar-a-Lago this past week, said that Trump himself said that taxes, tariffs, and crypto would be the three pillars of his economic agenda this term.
Sounds great!
But crypto will take a back seat quickly if we get the basics wrong in the debt markets:
The country needs an economic team that will shore up the “hard assets” in our country’s own reserves (the concept of a “bitcoin” reserve to complement our gold reserves), and will also tie tariff and defense policies to other countries’ use of the dollar as a reserve (e.g. lighter tariff terms in exchange for reserve commitments). It will be a high-wire act to get right.
The Options
(I have not met with / spoken to any of these candidates since June, when I met two in passing (one at a fundraiser, the other at a conference), so I don’t have a personal interest or deep relationship with anyone currently under consideration.)
Key Stone Group founder Scott Bessent has been the odds-on favorite to win the Treasury nod for months, and sat at a 90% favorite earlier last week on Polymarket. Bessent built his reputation as a colleague of Stan Druckenmiller’s, and left his post as George Soros’ Chief Investment Officer a decade ago, in part over political differences (important to note given the online smears tying him to Soros). He backed Trump’s 2016 campaign, and was the top fundraiser for Trump early this year. He is a believer in tariffs and Trump’s economic agenda.
I have watched hours worth of Bessent’s interviews (links below), and tried to get a feel for how receptive he would be to crypto. I tend to think that he is most likely to bring balance to crypto policy, which would be best for the industry long term, and he seems to have the right approach towards crypto: bitcoin and stablecoins and DeFi are good (think of them as “finance crypto”), and most all other crypto is also good, but is less relevant to Treasury policy (non-finance crypto).
On the other hand, I wrote yesterday that my impression was that crypto was now being used as a prop by the dark horse candidate, transition co-chair and crypto mega bull, Howard Lutnick, in order to elbow aside Bessent. My fear is that the crypto enthusiast disrupters (Vivek, RFK Jr., Elon, and members of Trump’s own family) may be riding the short-term hype train of the crypto bull markets to drive momentum for Lutnick, and setting up a risky, unintended scenario that spooks the Treasury markets.
I’m all for a strategic bitcoin reserve: it’s a good idea in a world that’s slowly de-dollarizing and moving to harder reserve assets. But crypto does not exist in a vacuum. And I worry that there are government officials in the throes of their first crypto bull market, who are neglecting the risks that come with signaling to sovereign investors that they would benefit more from piling into bitcoin-mania than snapping up our Treasuries.
We’d have no margin for error, either.
A 10% rotation from short-term Treasuries to bitcoin would be catastrophic for our interest rates, and likely lead to new inflation. And a short-term government-fueled spike followed by a massive market correction would turn crypto from the belle of the inauguration ball to a political pariah overnight.
When it comes to rolling out a Treasury x Crypto strategy, the messenger will matter, and we’ll probably want an understated systems-thinker and “boring” macro trader vs. crypto cowboy and outsized personality.
Would it be better to have a pit bull like Howard Lutnick as national economic advisor or The Tariff Guy™ responsible for aggressively negotiating all trade deals, and a technician like Scott Bessent keeping our debt train on the tracks?
The Game of Thrones
As it stands now, there are a few things to keep in mind regarding the Treasury race:
1. This was apparently a Cheney-esque power play. Lutnick allegedly only included two names on the initial list for Treasury picks: Bessent’s and Senator Bill Hagerty’s. If you wanted to eventually nominate yourself or have others back you in the late stages of the process, you’d reduce your competitive set exactly like this.
2. It’s all about location, location, location. Lutnick is at the center of the action as co-chair of the transition team. That means he’s spending a lot of time organically with Trump, with Elon, and with his other supporters at Mar-a-Lago. He’s occupying the most precious real estate in the world right now: the physical space around Trump himself.
3. Crypto is truly important in this decision. Lutnick strategically placed a Cantor Fitzgerald crypto event in Miami last week in order to attract some of the industry’s talent to South Florida. He’s got the support of the pro-crypto First Family members, Elon, and RFK Jr. himself seemed to hint at this last night. Some crypto execs and investors are personally meeting with Trump this week.
4. This could create the beginning of an early rift between Elon and Trump. I wouldn’t be surprised if Elon’s public Lutnick support ultimately back-fires as Trump asserts control and makes a statement that he’ll go with his initial instincts. He’ll either prove that he’s insusceptible to public pressure campaigns now that he has been elected, or that he’s willing to listen to a new crop of advisors when they push him.
5. It’s not over until it’s over. I am hearing that this is still Lutnick’s to lose. But apparently Bessent spoke with Elon Musk yesterday. And there’s allegedly a list of four more names that have been reintroduced after Trump expressed frustration over the power struggle. It seems to change hourly.
Bessent at Natcon. (20 minutes and solid overview of his economics worldview)
When I beat people up on X, it was for a purpose. When I was aggressive with friends in crypto policy, it was for a purpose. When I asked this week "where are my big boy friends and thank you's?", it was for a purpose.
2/ This thread is not about my insecurities. (I have none as I am perfect, happy, and always right when I go all in. Very handsome, too.) It isn't about ego.
It's an economic message: you don't owe me, but you sure as hell owe MESSARI, motherf*ckers.
And I will tell you why.
3/ This was Messari's revenue growth for the first five years of the company's life.
Until SBF screwed us all, we were cooking. And we were doing this without a token or taking a bunch of shortcuts. From Day 1 (and up until today), we never wavered in that mission.
1/ My 47 closing arguments on why we need to make Trump the President again.
Here are the charts / HARD DATA you need to make a final decision if you are *somehow* still on the fence or disinclined from voting.
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2/ I don't think most people realize how much trouble we are in if we don't reduce government spending.
For the past several years, Biden-Harris "COVID-laundered" unprecedented levels of government spending for negative ROI.
Our deficits exceeded GDP growth by $10 TRILLION.
3/ For the past three (non-emergency years), the vast majority of our GDP growth has been directly tied to public sector spending, which historically tends to be amongst the least efficient capital allocation methods.
@chamath pointed this out last week on the All-In pod.