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AukeHoekstra Profile picture
AukeHoekstra
@AukeHoekstra
Debunking scare stories about electric vehicles and renewable energy systems. Director https://t.co/Xl5y2HfOxu @TUeindhoven. Founder https://t.co/2cYr8kvjBY.
☀️ Leon-Gerard Vandenberg 🇳🇱🇨🇦🇦🇺 Math+e/acc Profile picture Chantal de Graaf Profile picture Nicholas Lee Profile picture Twitter author Profile picture Tim- #BlueVoterSuperNova -STOP fossil fool antisci Profile picture 17 subscribed
Apr 14 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Five of the Fossil Fuel Industry's Biggest Disinformation Tactics

@guardian article by @WesterveltAmy and @kylepope

Very recognizable for me too, so allow me to summarize the five points and add some observations/examples.
theguardian.com/us-news/2024/a… 1 "FF provides Energy Security"

In reality FF cause(d)(s) many INsecurities.

From the climate crisis, to "Dutch disease", to the end of democracy in Iran, to the war in Ukraine. [My examples]

Renewables are not scarce and last forever.
That sounds more secure to me. Image
Apr 13 • 10 tweets • 5 min read
The European Union just came out with an official report:
REAL-WORLD emissions versus the new WLTP cycle.

The results are
*UNBELIEVABLE!!*

PHEVs emit on average
THREE AND A HALF TIMES MORE
than the official test claims!
climate-energy.eea.europa.eu/topics/transpo…
Image Remember my complaints about @Toyota's misinformation claiming PHEV's are better than full EV's because they need smaller batteries?

Well, @Toyota actually scores WORSE than average with a gap of OVER FOUR TIMES the official value.

(Although their cars are more frugal.) Image
Apr 12 • 12 tweets • 5 min read
GEOTHERMAL
Just saw a fascinating webinar and you should too if geothermal interests you.


It explains how techniques from fracking are creating a game-changer in the last few years that can reduce the cost of energy systems without fossil fuels.

🧵
Image The webinar by prof. Roland Horne from @Stanford is about Enhanced Geothermal Systems or EGS that he defines as using fracking to make the area between the infusion and extraction well permeable for water. Image
Apr 5 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
OVERsupply for lithium batteries is looming!

It will bring battery prices down, helping the transition to EVs and clean energy, but create headaches for the lithium industry

Let me give some perspective, showing the long term trend is clear and e.g. @Toyota should be ashamed
🧵 This eviscerates the last credibility of @Toyota regarding EVs.

They (esp. Gill Pratt) have been pushing the story we should buy their hybrids instead of full EVs because lithium batteries are and will stay the bottleneck

BNEF shows that's simply untrue
Mar 23 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
How to look at our impact on life on earth in 3 graphs:

1) Humans are just 0.01% of all biomass. (The graph is gorgeous!)

2) Humans + domesticated animals have almost completely displaced wild mammals.

3) We use 45% of habitable land for agriculture. I *love* how well this graph was designed and how well it shows how small we are in the grand scheme of things.

Fun facts:
- Life is 0.00001% of the earth by weight
- Earth is 0.0003% of the weight of the sun

So we are insignificant right?
Well...
weforum.org/agenda/2021/08…
Mar 16 • 15 tweets • 5 min read
Grid congestion is THE bottleneck for economic growth and sustainability in the Netherlands.

But it doesn't have to be!

When we combine Dynamic Line Rating with Peak Shaving we could move three times more electricity with the current grid!
🧵 Image What is Peak Shaving?

Peak shaving means that you take measures to lower the peaks in electricity usage. Peaks are what limits use of a power line. In the example graph below you can see the demand is too high a few yours per week. But there is more than enough capacity overall Image
Feb 28 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
CEO of Dutch grid operator @Stedin: shut off charge points between 16:00 and 21:00.


Let me quickly explain why this is an astonishingly dumb idea that MAKES PEAKS WORSE, and why the CEO should know better.

TL;DR: the real solution is "smart charging".nos.nl/artikel/251053… It IS true that EVs charging without any guidance will increase the evening peak. But if you just shut charge points off from 16:00 to 21:00, you get a HUGE peak at 21:00. Because at that moment everyone who arrived between 16:00 and 21:00 will start charging.
Feb 22 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
I LOVE this new post by my friend (and sometimes foe ;-) @MLiebreich on the five superheroes that might keep climate change below 2C while making us more affluent.


My main take-aways in a short thread.about.bnef.com/blog/liebreich… Superhero 1: Exponential Growth

I think this is the biggest superhero of all. Michael rightly points out that "saturation theory" (saying the market for e.g. wind, solar, batteries and EVs will be saturated soon) is abused to make the consequences of exponential growth go away.
Dec 19, 2023 • 6 tweets • 4 min read
Two things are true about German electricity:

1) They temporarily increased its CO2 intensity by closing nuclear power and keeping brown coal open.

2) They are exponentially replacing coal by wind and solar as this graph shows.
And they dragged the whole world forward this way. Politics is messy. Anti-war and anti-nuclear sentiments after the second world war made Germany strongly opposed to nuclear but eager to do good. Which favored renewables. And they had Herman Scheer.

The different experience in the US might be why nuclear is more popular there. Image
Dec 4, 2023 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
I would estimate that over 99.9% of scientists who actually study climate systems agree that it's a lot cheaper and easier to stop burning fossil fuels than to remove carbon dioxide.

So why is @skdh so wrong?
🧵 Let's not make it an ad-hominem by assuming she craves the attention or gets paid for it. Maybe she's just worried and doesn't know better. My go-to reply in cases like this is: "never underestimate the power of incompetency".

So what does the science say?
Dec 2, 2023 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
118 countries have committed to 3x renewable energy and 2x energy efficiency by 2030

A remarkable success for @COP28_UAE

This would be a continuation of the last 10 years in terms of growth which would take us to ~75% renewable electricity in the signatory countries
🧵 A starring role for the @EU_Commission headed by @vonderleyen and two Dutch negotiators: @F__Timmermans and @WBHoekstra (no relation).

I'm proud of the EU and my country here.

But how ambitious is this renewable energy target really?
Aug 9, 2023 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
I'll be honest: when @wang_seaver of @TheBTI approached me with the draft of his critique I was afraid he was using me to improve a smear job.

But I think this is a fair and constructive critique of 100% RE, esp. for Asia and Afrika.

This is a short countercritique & apology First off: few researchers doing 100% RE models (=no fossil and nuclear) claim this is the only modeling that needs to be done from now on.

Most just want to show that renewables (especially solar and wind) can do more than currently though (even 100%) if you model them right.
Jul 31, 2023 • 19 tweets • 5 min read
HOW A RECENT ATTACK ON 100% RENEWABLE MODELS MIGHT END THE TRENCH WARFARE AND BENEFIT OUR CLIMATE

Just wrote a blog and I'm proud I was able to get respectful evidence-based feedback from both parties in this "brawl": a good use of my vacation weekend!
🧵
neonresearch.nl/thebti-rebutta… Thursday, @wang_seaver of @TheBTI published an attack on 100% renewable papers and @ChristianOnRE @UniLUT in particular. The attack states 100% RE models are “bunk” because they use unrealistically low prices for renewable energy and are overly simplistic.
thebreakthrough.org/issues/energy/…
Jul 24, 2023 • 17 tweets • 4 min read
TIPPING POINTS AND HOW (NOT) TO USE THEM
Tipping points in the climate are often over hyped by doomsters as this thread by @GlobalEcoGuy shows.

But tipping points in technologies such as solar panels and electric vehicles should be hyped more.
🧵 Jonathan Foley is an eminent climate scientist and has published a lot on climate feedbacks. He's also one of the driving forces behind @ProjectDrawdown. So if you are looking for someone to trust on climate tipping points, it's hard to find someone who is better qualified.
Jul 8, 2023 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
Another example of the anti-EV spin machine unleashed in the UK.
It's even less honest than the slogan on a certain bus.

I research EVs at the @TUeindhoven and in reality it's about 16k miles before an EV compensates it's battery production and batteries outlast the car.
🧵 In my pinned thread you find many examples of nonsense stories about electric vehicles (EVs) I've debunked. One interesting example was #Astongate where @MLiebreich found out the PR manager from Aston Martin was behind the lies. (Don't know who's the puppeteer of @mattwridley.)
Jul 5, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
What is wrong with Britain? As if on command it's *raining* rubbish stories, rubbishing EVs.

No, EVs do not double pothole damage.
Short 🧵

telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/2… Basically it's very simple: a BIT more axle weight means LOT more road wear and tear. Which is why the heaviest vehicles have a disproportional impact.

Want to lessen potholes in your street? Forbid the garbage truck or other very heavy cars to pass.
Jun 20, 2023 • 11 tweets • 5 min read
A thread on PV expectations for the coming ten years:
higher efficiences and lower costs due to a host of new technologies.

My take-away: the solar energy hurricane is still gaining strength.

(Based on the VDMA/ITRPV roadmap: vdma.org/international-…) Image Learning in solar production (Swansons' Law) is not slowing down but speeding up!

We often say every doubling of production lowers solar module prices by 20%
but from 1976 to 2022 it was 24.4%
and from 2006 to 2022 it was 39.3%

Solar is becoming incredibly cost effective. Image
Jun 13, 2023 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
I think it's great news that @Toyota is finally embracing electric vehicles and claims to be able to bring cars with solid state batteries to market in 2027 or 2029. But the hype they try to create around it seems overblown, to say the least.
🧵
global.toyota/en/newsroom/co… When it was about EVs, @Toyota mainly made waves trying to sabotage them so far. Remember them calling their gasoline cars "self-charging hybrids"?
insideevs.com/news/401708/te…
Jun 4, 2023 • 19 tweets • 7 min read
I love Rowan Atkinson the comedian and I believe he learned electrical engineering once, but I feel this erroneous article on EVs dupes the readers of the @guardian and that's starting to become a pattern.

Electric vehicles really emit 3x less CO2.
🧵
theguardian.com/commentisfree/… I didn't do something similar in school once. I actually study this specific topic at the @TUeindhoven. So I do actually dive into the facts.

And debunking nonsense like this from people like Atkinson who think or pretend to know better sometimes feels like a full time job.
May 24, 2023 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
This is frankly unbelievable. Prigozhin, the boss of the brutal Wagner mercenaries from Russia, describing the conflict in a way that Ukraine prime minister Zelensky could have done.

In an effort to reach more people I will screenshot and "explain" his most important utterings. He says there were two objectives of the military operation that both failed spectacularly: denazification and demilitarization.
("You had ONE job...")

He starts with denazification.

Here he recognizes that it wasn't exactly a successful "hearts and minds campaign". Image
May 19, 2023 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
The moment you knew would come:

fossil fuel companies (and petro states) claiming that burning their products is the only way to keep us wealthy.

This awful letter by @exxonmobil is leading the charge.

Why does our recent research say the opposite?

Short thread below. I research the energy transition at the @TUeindhoven, where I started a research program focused on this: NEONresearch.nl.

I also co-wrote an article about the rise of research into cost-effective 100% renewable energy systems recently.