Mostly niche finance chat, some political economics, occasionally over-enthusiastic sports chat. All views are mine and mine alone.
Jan 31, 2023 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
Why No Policy Should Live On Abstracts Alone:
(or why crap academic incentives can lead to even crapper policy)
This thread, from an ex-BEIS think tank head, describes a paper showing energy efficiency savings don’t actually reduce heating demand
Sadly, the paper … is crap
The idea that energy efficiency savings haven’t actually reduced demand was immediately challenged by other experts, pointing out that *overall* gas consumption for heating has fallen as overall floorspace and population has risen - so something must be improving efficiency
Local journalists have an amazing opportunity to build a brand, get some listeners, and maybe get some headlines with no cost. The Lobby already has brand and listeners, and are terrified of making their jobs harder
Apr 5, 2021 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
This thread comes from a place of exorbitant privilege ... BUT
I and my other half are trying to buy or maybe rent somewhere in London. Requirements: 3/4 bedrooms, zone 2, not super budget constrained (as I said, our jobs mean we work intensely but are exorbitantly privileged)
Every place we look at to buy has a queue out the door of 12-14 couples, all with needs greater than ours. One or two kids, pregnant, older. All get four to five offers, go to sealed bids, and sell 5-10% above asking price.
Apr 3, 2021 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
The @FT article on Archegos this comes from is vague, but the modelling here makes no sense at all. The modelling seems to show the value of bank holdings of a basket of securities liquidated when Archegos was shut down, and then inexplicably multiplies it by 5
For a start it’s not clear that the value of assets held in bank 13F filings for these securities solely represents Archegos positions - other funds may hold it. Additionally, if positions were sold, this methodology would incorrectly see this as “losses”
Apr 22, 2020 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Results from the first high-quality antibody study for Covid-19 are out, and confirm an IFR estimate of at least 1.1% (confidence interval: 0.5% to 2.5%): hug-ge.ch/medias/communi…
Sadly, this really does show that any optimism that this disease was milder than thought is wrong
3.5% of the population had had it by April 6th-10th and 5.5% by April 14th-17th. This compares to 190 deaths in a population of 499k to April 20th.
Given time from symptoms to death is 2-6 weeks, the first number is likely to be more relevant, meaning IFR is 1.1%
Sep 7, 2018 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
If anyone is having trouble sleeping on this Friday evening... I bring you possibly the dryest piece of writing of my career to date. Yes, it’s a careful look at why people who say that renting is actually as cheap as owning a house are wrong medium.com/@popebenedizzl…
So there’s a bit of a twitter meme, which has started to spill over into policyland, that private rental and owner-occupation are equally expensive. People claim often compare the annual costs of owning a house to rental yield, calling what’s left a normal investment return.
