I think one of Biden's problems is that he has never had a story to tell that links his policies together. Every GOP initiative is tied to all the others in that big government is always the enemy, especially of the little guy, and Republicans want to lift it off his back.
It would be easy enough to turn this story around, show that big business and corrupt rich people are the real enemies of the little guy, and only government has the power to help. But Democrats haven't made this argument since LBJ.
Feb 6 • 12 tweets • 2 min read
Yesterday I asserted that the New York Times has moved to the right over the last 25 years. Some people took issue with this claim, others attribute it simply to corporate greed. The true reason is more complex and I will try to explain part of the reason.
Back in the 1970s, I was a conservative and the bulk of the media was liberal, both editorially and in its news coverage. It was very hard to get a reporter to cover conservative initiatives, but in those days it was essential if you wanted your proposals to get publicity.
Jul 14, 2023 • 15 tweets • 5 min read
Once you accept one crazy conspiracy theory, it is much easier to accept the next one and the next after that. And the more conspiracies you accept, the more alienated you become from those who don't share your beliefs. Eventually, everything is a conspiracy.
I think some people react to the widespread acceptance of ridiculous conspiracy theories by Trump supporters and a few on the left (RFK Jr) by denying that there are ever any true conspiracies. But there are! Sometimes in plain sight. I will post a few below. Post others.
Jul 3, 2023 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
I think that there is a lot less difference in the quality of education among most universities at the undergraduate level than people imagine. For the typical student majoring in English, history, mathematics and most other fields they will learn the same thing everywhere.
Of course in some specialized fields such as fine arts it may make a difference and certainly at the graduate level it makes a huge difference. The main difference between graduates of elite schools and other good schools is the student body and the piece of paper.
May 29, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
The most important truth in American politics that no one ever talks about--half the population has an IQ below the median and the GOP represents them. Over the past generation, the parties have sorted themselves according to intelligence as well as other ways.
People need to understand that when Republicans leaders talk like idiots, it's not necessarily because they have a low IQ. It's because they must talk down to their followers, who are barely able to grasp 3rd grade concepts.
May 29, 2023 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
Practically everyone on both the right and left err in their view of the national debt; they all view it as a burden. In an ideal world, both sides believe, we'd pay it off and be done with it. While this may be true for other countries, it is not true of the US.
As Alexander Hamilton understood, there is a huge demand for an asset with no risk of default. It mobilizes saving and gives the issuer a huge privilege of borrowing internationally at the lowest possible rate. It's a privilege other nations resent, but cannot compete with.
May 27, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Rewatching A Fistful of Dollars for the umpteenth time and reminded again how good the Eastwood-Leoni partnership was. Although both made other westerns, none were as good as those they made together.
The Eastwood-Leoni trilogy is as good as it gets, especially the first, which was based on Kurosowa's Yojimbo. But whereas The Magnificent Seven was also based on his work (Seven Samurai), it didn't have as much impact on moviemaking.
May 27, 2023 • 21 tweets • 5 min read
Occasionally people ask why I am not a Democrat since I hate Republicans so much. The debt limit is a good example. Democrats allowed Republicans to control the narrative since Day One. Democrats never fought for their agenda, acted powerless throughout the debate,
and then settled on Republican terms. I cannot belong to a party that is so passive, unwilling to fight for what it believes, and has such thoroughly inept leaders. I'll vote for them because there is no alternative, but I doubt I will ever call myself a Democrat.
May 26, 2023 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
Joe Biden may be making the same mistake George H.W. Bush made and suffer the same fate. Bush thought he could raise taxes because Reagan had done so 11 times without suffering for it. But Reagan was deeply loved by Republicans because...
he had been loyal to the party in its dark days in the 60s and gave great speeches. Bush did not give great speeches and people still remembered his crack about voodoo economics. He didn't have a reservoir of love to fall back on when times got tough.
May 25, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
The party of extortion is leaning heavily on the idea that Treasury can prioritize spending to avoid a default. But this is just another form of line-item veto that SCOTUS ruled illegal during the Clinton administration. Or it's impoundment made illegal by the 1974 Budget Act.
The fact is that on June 1 the Treasury MUST break the law. The question is which law. Standard legal practice says that laws which are unconstitutional yield to those that are. The debt limit is unconstitutional on its face.
May 23, 2023 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
Alternative Biden strategy on the debt limit: (1) raise it in the lame-duck session last year. Lots of people told him to do it, but apparently Biden was persuaded that if disaster struck the Republicans would be blamed. This was stupid. The president is always blamed.
(2) Stand firm on a no-negotiation strategy. Work the discharge petition option in the House, find something the Senate can do to move the ball. Make clear that the White House does not negotiate with terrorists or extortionists. But Biden caved on this and agreed to negotiate.
May 23, 2023 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
I don't think President Biden realizes how dismaying it is to his supporters to see him negotiating with a bunch of unserious clowns attempting to extort totally unjustified policies by threatening to blow up the world financial system unless their idiotic demands are met.
One thing most people learn early in politics is that you don't punch down, you don't debate people beneath you in terms of stature or intelligence because even if you win you look bad and you can't help but elevate your opponent.
May 22, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
It's important for people to understand that there is no *economic* rationale for the Republican demand for vast spending cuts. There is no evidence that Treasury borrowing is crowding out private borrowers and raising interest rates.
Yes, rates have risen, but *only* because the Fed is tightening monetary policy. To the extent that lower federal borrowing brings down rates, this will be contrary to Fed policy and may lead it to further tighten to offset the impact.
May 19, 2023 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
The debt limit "negotiation" points out a problem I have identified previously. Republicans always ask for way more than they think they can get so they have room to negotiate and still win. Democrats always lead with their bottom line with no room to maneuver.
Republicans put forward an absurd list of budget cuts that are not serious on their face. They should have been laughed at. Biden put forward a reasonable proposal for a clean debt limit increase, leaving him nothing to bargain with.
Two esteemed law professors explain why the best way to deal with the debt ceiling is to just ignore it. latimes.com/opinion/story/…
Everyone acts as if the sky will fall if the president breaks the law by ignoring the debt limit. BUT HE WILL ALSO BREAK THE LAW IF HE ABIDES BY IT! So the question is not whether to break the law, but which law to break.
May 7, 2023 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Free article. Really outstanding analysis of the the debt limit by Harvard law professor @tribelaw. Makes the essential point that if the debt limit is binding then other laws will be broken. Violating the limit is the least unconstitutional option. nytimes.com/2023/05/07/opi…
For legal-types who need all the bells & whistles for this argument, see Buchanan & Dorf in 112 Columbia Law Review 1175 (2012): scholarship.law.cornell.edu/cgi/viewconten…
May 6, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
There is one good thing about royalty--it saves the head of government, the Prime Minister, from a lot of time wasted on purely ceremonial functions that the American president must endure.
I suppose it also confers a certain continuity in government that is especially useful in a parliamentary system where governments may come and go very quickly.
May 5, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
I'm starting to think that Republicans are more fearful of what will happen if the debt limit is breached than Democrats are. They know that the debt limit is unenforceable, unconstitutional law. But it is a really useful hostage that they don't want to lose.
Preserving that hostage is actually more important to Republicans than keeping financial markets from melting down because Biden will take all the blame for that. But it also means the debt limit will be declared null and void.
Apr 20, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Re the debt limit, I have long advocated just ignoring it, as the government ignores lots of similar laws such as the Employment Act of 1946. federalreservehistory.org/essays/humphre…
Another such law that was completely ignored was Public Law 95-435, which required the budget to be balanced. washingtonpost.com/archive/opinio…
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