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@lightcrypto
I heard you say once That a lie is sweet in the beginning And bitter in the end And truth is bitter in the beginning And sweet in the end
Jan 28, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Aptos dev team wallet has started feeding the Korean ducks, ~$20mm in spot sent to Binance in the last hour.

$1b in inventory remains in the wallet.

The tightly controlled supply has activated. Image Simultaneously, Korean bid as proxied by inventory flowing to Upbit has slowed (from peaks of $10mm daily to sub $5mm). Image
Sep 27, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
/1 smart move by Binance to drive more of the LUNC derivatives market to themselves and squeeze some more juice out of this circus. /2 Binance will be a net winner, but the ultimate trajectory of LUNC price remains the same. With back-of-the-envelope estimates, the fees Binance will burn are a drop in the bucket relative to

(1) the $2b market cap of LUNC, a ghostchain with no organic economic activity, Image
Sep 11, 2022 • 19 tweets • 4 min read
/1 some thoughts on the LUNC burn catalyst —

Or, how I learned to stop worrying and love the pump and dump. /2 LUNC went parabolic at the beginning of September, up 500% trough to peak, on the back of a governance proposal to charge all on-chain transactions a flat 1.2% fee. The network briefly reached a value of $4b, with billions traded on CEX venues.
Jul 7, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
/1 couple thoughts on the resolution of the Mt. Gox saga: /2 Fears about a supply side bomb are likely unfounded:
-creditors who were keen to sell have already been bought out by large funds
-creditors are long-time crypto participants who have a variety of other interests in the space, have adjusted their exposures pre-distribution
May 23, 2022 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
/1 Is the collapse of UST and the Luna ecosystem a death sentence for algorithmic stablecoins or a temporary vacuum that creates opportunity for those that survived?

A case for long TRXUSDT: /2 TRX has displayed enormous relative strength, again at its March highs in an environment where 99% of alts are down 50% or more, driven by Tron’s recent foray into the algo stable space and a 30% yield on USDD. In bear markets, winners win.
Apr 28, 2022 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
/1 Think GMT is about to walk off the edge of a cliff in short order.

Built a full short position in the $3.80s.

The token ran up 40x from Binance listing in 2 months on a strong Axie mimic narrative and incredible app growth metrics: /2 The app is compelling, and the growth is there. But there is no way to skin the cat and justify the valuation. This can often safely be ignored in crypto, but the deviation between GMT the token and STEPN the game has reached such fever that it offends even the insensible.
Jan 26, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
/1 Have 0 interest in de-risking longs into FOMC.

Market is already grossly de-risked across entire complex (see tech equities most u/w since Dec 2008 bottom) and within crypto, spot-driven rally continues to be unloved, with derivs fading (fundings pronounced negative tilt). /2 People so shell-shocked that any inkling that the world doesn't end results in relief.

Note also Powell has never failed to assuage market, and doubt he will buck that trend w equities already imploded.
Jan 22, 2022 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
/1 I am notorious for being early to trend reversals. I tend to make it work because I exit and re-enter repeatedly. But on a move of this magnitude, no amount of exiting and re-entering saved me from a material drawdown. /2 To all of you who faced losses in part because of my views, I am deeply sorry.
Jan 18, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
The existential question facing crypto markets — does capitulation in ponzis like OHM and the ramp of unlocks into Q1/Q2 on this cycle's alts resolve in contagion (risk aversion by by all participants) or dispersion of returns? Choose your adventure:

same as prior cycles, risk-seeking scarcity and bear sentiment overwhelm investment frameworks broadly

or

a more institutionalized space supports desirable assets, they weather the pressure of collapses of weak names, and resume secular trend up.
Dec 18, 2021 • 18 tweets • 6 min read
/1 Where are the Bulls’ Balls? A thread on the cryptocurrency markets over the last month and into the end of the year: Image /2 First, a look at how we got to where we are — torrid rallies took BTC and ETH to all time highs again in November, one primarily driven by a futures ETF, the other by EIP 1559 emission reductions and adoption.
Nov 24, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
The real game is gambling. And it was all along.

When you see assets turn over their entire market caps in volume in 24 hours, the top follows shortly after. Image Love to see spoofing is still alive and well, using leverage market to prop it up while distributing into retail, spot liquidity paper thin relative to volume. Image
Aug 27, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
/1 It is hard to stomach views that colored tokens of rocks exchanging hands for millions of dollars are anything but a gauche manifestation of collective madness and a short-lived re-rating of perceived wealth that will reverse too quickly to be realized as profit. /2 the more interesting question to me is whether such excesses are cute novelties that fall by the wayside to the grand march of crypto or are ominous signs of a macro state that is impossible to sustain no matter how strong assets like Bitcoin are on an individual basis.
May 25, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
More likely than not, this is the playbook on alts now.

We were all dancing until the music stopped. You have to think a 60%+ crash in altland is the music stopping.

Insiders will now take any bounce/liquidity as an opportunity to liquidate bags they got for next to nothing. here's how it played out in 2018; it's worth looking back into that cycle, because so far, things have played out in a fairly similar way - BTC topping on a sell the news event, money rotating out into the risk curve and alts ripping, followed by death.

May 15, 2021 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
/1 Technical analysis is the lowest alpha generating framework of the different viable approaches to markets.

It is only incredibly popular because of how accessible it is for retail participants. It is only viable because some participants use it. It is circular. /2 It is useful as a part of a trading framework (that sources its signals through other means) to choose entry and exit levels.
Apr 16, 2021 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
/1 Every once in a while comes along a day where you pay your tuition as trader.

Today was one of those days for me.

The loss stings a bit, as does having been the fish.

But something subsumes all of this and makes it paltry by comparison. /2 If you let yourself, these are the days when you learn the most about markets, trading, and your own weaknesses.

A lot was lacking in my approach to this trade. I had not considered the different scenarios that could play out, and thus had no plan to meet them.
Mar 14, 2021 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
/1 I think it time for me to acknowledge that I was grossly off in a lot of my criticism of NFTs.

I owe thanks to those forward-thinking individuals whose exploration of this new creative medium changed my mind. /2 However, a caveat - I continue in thinking that buying almost any NFT tradeable today will result in a net loss in 1 years' time and further.
Mar 12, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Chiliz $CHZ, a very legitimate project that reached an $8b valuation and that is definitely not a pump and dump, just dropped 38% in 5 seconds. meanwhile top holders are sending out CHZ, splitting it up into further addresses, and shipping it onto exchanges to distribute.
Jan 26, 2021 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
/1 on the advantages of replacing high leverage margin swap/futures positions with options /2 have heard anecdotes of participants losing large parts of their crypto holdings by chasing the bull market with mistimed leveraged longs and see thousands of nameless participants in the billions in notional that are liquidated on any material move in the markets.
Jan 11, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
probs should have listened to the mean rollercoaster avatar on twitter instead of the LARPs who led you to slaughter today. turns out trading is a touch difficult and maybe the people who dont bet but still talk dont make money for a reason anon.
Oct 11, 2020 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
An alt has the veneer of scarcity within its own system. But that mirage evaporates when it is viewed outside its border. If an alt then lacks scarcity outside of its own confines, its only value stems from two sources: its use case as a speculative vehicle and the minimum amount necessary to be held at any one time to achieve its demanded utilization.
May 18, 2020 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
/1 The first difficulty adjustment post-halving is indicative of an ~15% hash power ratchet down. /2 This is somewhat in line with the model mix assumed by @BlockwareTeam's report in March (blockwaresolutions.com/research-and-p…) where S9's were seen at 38.6%. That number probably trended down as miners positioned into the halving and upgraded equipment.