News: The US has recently begun seeing “disturbing” signs that Beijing wants to “creep up to the line” of providing lethal military aid to Russia without getting caught. US officials have been concerned enough that they have been sharing this intelligence w/allies at Munich. CNN reported last month that the US raised concerns w/China about evidence suggesting Chinese companies have sold non-lethal equipment to Russia for use in Ukraine, like helmets. But there are signs now that Beijing is weighing lethal aid, like weaponry, officials say.

BREAKING: Brittney Griner has been RELEASED from Russian detention in a prisoner exchange for Russian Viktor Bout, via @jmhansler The swap did not include Paul Whelan.

Jake Sullivan with some news: Says US has intelligence that Iran is preparing to provide Russia with UAVs to use in Ukraine and is preparing to train the Russians how to use them. Sullivan said the information is that some of the drones, which number in the hundreds, are weapons-capable. Unclear if some or all have been delivered already.

“We have to change that decision by codifying Roe v Wade,” President Biden says, referring to Supreme Court decision which he says is essentially a challenge to the right to privacy. “We are going to stick with Ukraine for as long as it takes to ensure they are not defeated by Russia,” Biden says.

White House officials are losing confidence that Ukraine will be able to take back all of the land it has lost to Russia and go back to pre-Feb 24 territorial lines, even with the heavier and more sophisticated weaponry the US and its allies plan to send. cnn.com/2022/06/28/pol… Advisers to President Biden have begun debating internally how and whether Zelensky should shift his definition of a Ukrainian "victory" -- adjusting for the possibility that his country has shrunk irreversibly.

New: Senior US officials have conveyed to Saudi Arabia that the US is prepared to move forward with a reset of the relationship, effectively moving on from the 2018 murder of Jamal Khashoggi in order to repair ties with the key Middle East ally. cnn.com/2022/06/10/pol… "Both sides have decided that for the sake of achieving peace and stability in the Middle East, we need to move past it," said one senior official. The Saudis, for their part, consider the Khashoggi case closed—and have made that clear to the US, officials said.

News: The Biden admin is preparing to send Ukraine advanced, long-range rocket systems—known as MLRS and HIMARS—that are now the top request from Ukrainian officials, multiple officials say.
Approval could be announced as soon as next week. cnn.com/2022/05/26/pol… The admin waivered for weeks on whether to send the systems, amid concerns that Ukraine could use them to launch attacks into Russia, officials said. But Russia has lately been pummeling Ukraine in the east, where Ukraine is outmanned and outgunned, Ukrainian officials say.

"We assess President Putin is preparing for prolonged conflict in Ukraine during which he still intends to achieve goals beyond the Donbas" in eastern Ukraine, Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines tells lawmakers this morning. armed-services.senate.gov/hearings/to-re… "Both Russia and Ukraine believe they can continue to make progress militarily," Haines says, "we do not see a viable negotiating path forward, at least in the short term."

New: My story on one Ukrainian-American woman trying to get her dad & his unit the supplies they need to fight Russia—a microcosm of a much larger network of private citizens from around the world working to funnel equipment directly to Ukrainian soldiers cnn.com/2022/04/20/pol… A Commerce Dept spokesperson told CNN that Americans from all over have reached out requesting guidance on how to donate equipment,& the dept “has been processing requests rapidly for the export of firearms and ammunition to Ukraine under its existing processes and authorities.”

President Zelensky will address tomorrow's NATO Leaders Summit, @jensstoltenberg announces. Stoltenberg says he expects NATO leaders will agree to strengthen NATO's posture "in all domains," with "major increases of forces" in the eastern part of the alliance, from the Baltics to the Black Sea.

NEW: We accompanied NATO on surveillance mission today over the Poland-Ukraine border. The plane’s radar spotted at least nine Russian-made planes entering Ukrainian airspace from Belarus, appearing to head toward Kyiv. More here on what we saw: cnn.com/2022/03/10/pol… As the NATO plane flew its mission on Thursday, a Russian spy plane circled over Belarus doing similar surveillance in the opposite direction. The Russians have also taken to trying to jam the NATO plane's radar, which is mostly just annoying, the crew said …

Confirming NYT: Biden admin is weighing easing sanctions on Venezuela so that it can begin producing more oil & selling it on the international market. Move would be aimed at reducing global dependence on Russian oil & isolating Russia from one of its key allies in South America. Biden has in recent months tasked his admin with coming up with ways to drastically reduce the world’s dependence on Russian oil and gas, which has become especially urgent since Russia's invasion. Easing sanctions on Venezuela is just one of the ideas they are exploring.

NEWS: Russia is poised to deploy up to 1,000 more mercenaries to Ukraine in the coming days and weeks, a US official told CNN, as a senior Western intelligence official warned that Russia could soon begin to "bombard cities into submission." “It’s a very crude approach,” the western intelligence official said of Russia's attacks. “The heavier weapons [Russia is bringing in] are not just heavier in the weight, they’re also heavier in terms of the damage that they can inflict. And they’re far less discriminant.”

.@jensstoltenberg speaking to press now here at NATO. “In the days to come are likely to be worse, with more death, more suffering, and more destruction, as the Russian armed forces bring in heavier weaponry and continue their attacks across the country.” Stoltenberg says NATO has a responsibility to ensure the conflict does not extend beyond Ukraine. “NATO is not seeking a war with Russia,” he says.

International Atomic Energy Agency chief says during press conference just now that they have detected NO release of radioactive material following Russian shelling of the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant. But the situation remains “extremely tense and challenging,” he says. IAEA officials are prepared to travel to Chernobyl to work on a framework that Ukraine and Russia can agree on to ensure the safety of nuclear facilities during the war, @rafaelmgrossi says.

Biden: "I have no plans to talk with President Putin." Biden says cutting Russia off from SWIFT is "always an option" but "right now that's not the position that the rest of Europe wishes to take."

Biden: "Today I'm authorizing additional strong sanctions and new limitations on what can be exported to Russia." Says "we have purposefully chosen these sanctions to maximize the long-term impact on Russia." "We will limit Russia's ability to do business in dollars, euros, pounds and yen to be part of the global economy. We're going to stop the ability to finance and grow the Russian military. We're going to impair their ability to compete in a high-tech 21st century economy."

SCOOP: The Biden admin is expected to announce today that it will allow sanctions to move forward on the company in charge of building Russia's Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, Nord Stream 2 AG, and its CEO after blocking such sanctions last year using a national security waiver. The administration decided to move forward with rescinding the national security waiver after Germany on Tuesday announced that it was halting the certification of the pipeline, officials told CNN.

Biden: "This is the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine...so I am going to begin to impose sanctions in response, far beyond" anything implemented in 2014. And if Russia continues its invasion sanctions will go even further, Biden says. "Russia has now undeniably moved against Ukraine by declaring these independent states," Biden says. Says US implementing full blocking sanctions on VEB and Russia's military bank, sanctions on Russia's sovereign debt, and in coming days--Russia's elites and family members.

Biden: "The Russian defense minister reported today that some military units are leaving their positions near Ukraine. That would be good....We have not yet verified that...Indeed, our analysts indicate that they remain very much in a threatening position." "To the citizens of Russia, you are not our enemy.
And I do not believe you want a bloody destructive war against Ukraine, a country and the people with whom you share such deep ties of family history and culture."

NSA Jake Sullivan declines to comment on US intelligence with regard to Russian invasion, but says "it could begin during the Olympics despite speculation that it would only happen after the Olympics." Sullivan says an invasion would likely begin with aerial bombing and missile attacks, followed by a ground invasion. Reiterates to Americans that it is time to leave now, while commercial options exist and roads are open. US military will not be sent in for rescues, he says.