Read my words about politics/pop culture at The Play Typer Guy newsletter (https://t.co/DzcTUqZnkw). Find me on Threads and Bluesky at @ser1897
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Jan 10 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
Was at an event the other day and a very nice white liberal PDXer spoke about how Democrats just aren't doing enough to reach or connect with "people like my brother" -- a rural Oregonian who I assume votes for Trump and other Republicans. This just summed up a key problem for me
For one -- and I say this with all respect -- even the nicest white liberal you'll ever meet most likely has a loved one who is MAGA. That loved one is dearer to them (rightly so!) than my Black ass.
Dec 8, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Now, that midterms are officially over, it’s obvious that Liz Cheney was right. This isn’t a “praise Liz Cheney” tweet. I’m just saying she was right that Trump was an electoral loser and the GOP needed to cut him lose. wonkette.com/how-did-liz-ch…
Before her excommunication, Cheney called out how toxic Trump was in key districts.
Dec 7, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
I keep seeing pundits ask this question. It’s the wrong question.
It also ignores the reality that a lot of the “craziness/extremism” is a feature for Republicans. They don’t want moderates.
It’s like when the boring mayonnaise lady tried to beat Marjorie Taylor Greene in the GOP primary. She basically supported ALL THE SAME POLICIES but she would be more acceptable in the country club. Republicans weren’t interested. wonkette.com/sentient-mayo-…
Dec 7, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Bailing on the election wouldn’t have “healed” the party. Also, keep in mind, that by the same standards, Trump was the obvious winner on Super Tuesday but the media/punditry kept insisting his opponents had a chance! Maybe it could go to the convention.
Trump came within striking distance of Clinton in MN, ME, and NH! That’s because of her softness with white voters (esp. in rural areas). We need those EVs to get to 270! And Biden didn’t struggle in those three states.
Dec 6, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Biden owes his presidency more to Bernie Sanders than Jim Clyburn.
I’ve said before: If Harris or Booker or Ryan had performed like Sanders in the early states, the Dem party would’ve dropped Biden like a hot potato.
Sanders might’ve always lost South Carolina but he arguably lost the entire primary in the time period after Nevada, where he attacked the Dem “establishment” (not a great move).
Dec 6, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Fair point! I’d argue that the impact of a smaller loss now (even if you’re just a state or 2 away from winning) can have the impact of a landslide down ballot, arguably bc of the calcification model you mention.
It’s a tantrum, sure, but it’s probably not an unreasoning one. In other words, Hassan must know that there’s considerable backlash to the change within her state.
Dec 6, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
I’d disagree with this, considering the early states winnow the field down considerably. Candidates literally drop out after Iowa or New Hampshire.
The position from many Democrats who proposed the change is that Buttigieg/Klobuchar would’ve never made it to the actual primaries if the first states were SC or, say, TX (basically anywhere more diverse than IA/NH).
Dec 6, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
My point is that Obama winning SC would’ve otherwise been part of a pleasant story where he still loses to HRC. Proving he could win white voters helped with donors, the media, etc.
During Hillary Clinton’s horrible February, Obama won Nebraska, Maine, Washington, Wisconsin.
Dec 6, 2022 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
To repeat myself: If Obama had only won SC without “proving” himself in Iowa, he would’ve been dismissed as another “Jesse Jackson candidate.” (The Clinton campaign was already suggesting this.)
There’s a reason Tim Russert framed Iowa as “must win” for Obama’s campaign.
As I mentioned to @RobynElyse, this reminds me of someone who suddenly declared that community theatre is inherently awful, but that was rooted primarily in the fact that his ex cheated on him with someone she met in a community theatre production.
Dec 5, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
That is the problem with the idea that all speech/expression is equal. People are free to claim the Holocaust was a hoax but a healthy society would reject and shun them.
A healthy society doesn’t reject and shun people bc they are queer or Black ...
I was not invited to white classmates’ birthday parties. People were free to do that but today, we recognize that’s a horrible thing to do, based solely on someone’s race.
Dec 5, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Yes, @RobynElyse has suggested that it’s more about white SC voters than Black voters. Black SC voters went for Jesse Jackson!
Even while routing Clinton in SC, Obama came in *third* among white SC primary voters.
Dec 5, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
The punditry wasn’t in tune with the voters, though. They were freaking out while Sanders was winning and *because* Sanders were winning. Chris Matthews and James Carville specifically acted as if voters had lost their minds.
Republicans were moved on infrastructure and -- perhaps most damning -- gun safety.
Not budging on abortion would imply that Republicans fear no political ramifications from voters, despite Biden saying just this week that there is a strong “pro-Roe” majority.
Florida and North Carolina are still considered swing states. There are Senate elections in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and New Hampshire — all states that Biden won in 2020.
Oct 18, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
But it’s not 60 votes! That’s my point. The only reason that Roe was overturned is that Republicans (inc. “moderates” Collins, Murkowski, Flake) nuked the SCOTUS filibuster. You don’t get Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, or Barrett on the Court otherwise.
We can’t ignore this fact. If Trump/McConnell were stuck with the SCOTUS filibuster, they would’ve been lucky to get judges like Kennedy.
Oct 18, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
I think 2000 to 2020 comparisons downplays the threat right now. If the average person is aware of how Bush “won,” they are less likely to view him as a tyrant and believe democracy ended. And they think, “OK, we got a Dem House in 6 years and Obama in 8."
2000 looks like a set back whereas 2020 led to a major shift that might end democracy as a whole.
Oct 17, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
What is the solution to “white voters are mostly garbage”? That is the dominant power bloc in the US. The rest of us can either negotiate or desperately try to fight back (and likely fail).
I am in the uncomfortable middle, I guess, between the centrists in outright denial about white supremacy and the folks who think poking the literal WASP’s nest will achieve anything productive.
Oct 17, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
The “appeal of centrism,” based on this poll, would require not acknowledging America’s issues with white supremacy, which isn’t a past problem but is an issue RIGHT NOW.
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