Drew Savicki πŸ¦–πŸ¦•πŸ¦– Profile picture
Formerly: contributor @270toWin . Author who writes about states and likes elections. CT-IL-NC. Be prepared for bad food takes #ActuallyAutisticπŸ§™β€β™‚οΈπŸ—ΊοΈ He/Him
15 Jan
With a whopping 63% of people over 25 having at least a bachelor's degree, Mississippi Senate District 25 is the most educated senate district in the state. Though it remains solidly Republican for now, it has seen the same leftward drift. Image
The religiosity of southern college educated whites is what will keep them more Republican than their northern counterparts. While rural northern whites are starting to vote like they do in the south, it will take some time before he reverse happens.
HD-49 is partially located in this district.
Read 5 tweets
13 Jan
If NC had a Senate race in 2018, Dems would have won it. Unfortunately for Dems the seats have been up in the wrong years. Dems will spend heavily on next year's race but they're underdogs with the lack of a top tier candidate and the state's partisanship.
Dems have exactly top tier officeholder and that's Roy Cooper. Since Dems failed to win the Lieutenant Governor's race, him running is completely out of the question.
State Senator Don Davis would be a strong candidate but him running is not going to happen. He'd never win a primary.
Read 4 tweets
11 Jan
Grassley's commitment to the 99 county tour is impressive. It's part of his longevity in Iowa politics over the years. He shows up in every corner of the state.
He has been doing this every year since he first ran for the Senate in 1980.
The 99 county tour is so popular that other Iowa politicians have sought to do their own. Both Joni Ernst and Kim Reynolds do it too.
Read 4 tweets
8 Jan
Both Ossoff and Warnock outperformed Biden in Georgia's 7th District. Raphael Warnock won this historically GOP district by eight points. Image
Romney won GA-7 60-38 in 2012 and Trump won it 51-45% in 2016.
Read 4 tweets
31 Dec 20
The Republican resistance to the $2,000 checks idea is interesting. Trump has brought in a ton of new voters to the GOP but most mainstream Republicans still balk at embracing the more populist economic policies these voters like.
Trump has had very little success in this regard. He has by and large been unable to get mainstream Republicans to embrace his economic policies.
Even Republican Senators like Chuck Grassley and Ron Johnson, who represent states where Trump did better than your average Republican, aren't rushing to embrace this stuff.
Read 4 tweets
30 Dec 20
I don't have any idea how they arrived at this conclusion
How do these people get through their daily lives?
Trump has retweeted this "catturd" person on several occasions.
Read 4 tweets
25 Dec 20
The Alaska legislature convenes in just over a month and neither chamber has a working majority yet. ktoo.org/2020/12/18/wit…
Actually less than a month. The legislature will convene on January 19.
The House is currently deadlocked 20-20. 20 members have agreed to serve in the majority coalition and the other 20 members are all Republicans.
Read 4 tweets
21 Dec 20
Those are the maximum margins a federal Democrat are gonna win by in those states. Of course you know that.
@MichaelDuncan is (purposely) leaving out a tiny little detail. His party spent $0 in those states because they're not competitive.
When you say x race was closer than Kentucky, you're not to be taken seriously. People who use that comparison are arguing in bad faith because they're purposely ignoring partisanship.
Read 4 tweets
19 Dec 20
Much changed between 2012 and 2020. While the WWC voters in the midwest get all the attention, Democrats saw huge dropoffs with them in timber country too. Biden did 4% better than Obama thanks to his considerable gains in Seattle Metro. He also held his own out east. Image
Read 4 tweets
19 Dec 20
People are upset about crowdfunding a poll because this is the internet. It's not the end of the world but some people sure act like it is.
It's not anyone's business to decide how others spend their money.
It's certainly not my place to lecture others on how to spend their money. I don't care enough to do so. I'm not actively worried about what others spend their money on. Now I'd prefer it if everyone spent their money on me instead but hey, that's just my opinion.
Read 4 tweets
12 Dec 20
Compared to Obama's reelection win, a lot of Democratic Senate candidates did quite poorly this year. Several Dem incumbents considerably underperformed him. On the other hand, candidates like Mark Kelly and Barbara Bollier had terrific performances.
thanks to @NilesGApol for the idea
I know @kilometerbryman has to be happy about that Kansas swing
Read 4 tweets
10 Dec 20
Harrison Ford will be 80 when this movie releases.
Indiana Jones and the search for his blood pressure medication
2022 would 14 years after Crystal Skull. If we apply that same length of time in universe, the film would be set in 1971.
Read 5 tweets
3 Dec 20
Peter Parker's precinct in Queens
2016 President: Clinton 63-33%
2020 President: Biden 65-34%
This is the information you come to me for. The voting patterns of superheroes.
Rep. Grace Meng got 9 more votes than Biden while the Republican got 12 fewer votes than Trump. She won it 67-33%
Read 6 tweets
30 Nov 20
It's just super embarrassing for everyone involved at how desperate they are to copy AOC.
They're trying way too hard.
that famous socialist nation - Iran.
Read 4 tweets
30 Nov 20
Does Ross know there is internet outside America?
I'm the camp that The Last Jedi is terrific.
Read 4 tweets
30 Nov 20
Massachusetts didn't see a ton of ticket splitting between President and Senate but there was some. There were 14 precincts that voted for Biden and Kevin O'Connor (R) and 39 that voted for both Trump and Markey. In terms of towns that translated to 2 DEM/GOP and 11 GOP/Dem.
The Trump/Markey precincts are pretty much blue collar areas.
Biden/O'Connor towns: Hanover and Sutton.
Trump/Markey towns: Ashby, Dracut, Hubbardston, Leicester, Ludlow, New Braintree, Palmer, Swansea, West Bridgewater, Ware, and Winchendon.
Read 5 tweets
29 Nov 20
West Virginia was pretty much a bloodbath for downballot Democrats this year but State Delegate Brent Boggs handily won reelection to his 83% rural district in central WV. A member of the NRA, Boggs was first elected to the House in 1996. Image
@ChazNuttycombe suggested mapping this district. I think @RuralChrisLee will find it interesting.
In addition to being pro gun, Boggs is also staunchly anti-abortion. The group "West Virginians for Life" give him an 87% rating from 2013-2019.
Read 6 tweets
28 Nov 20
Whoever operates this account is back to pretending to be a real person. This account went offline for a while before coming back under a completely different username. This account has claimed to be an Asian woman from Provo, Utah who attends GWU. (h/t @AndrewSolender )
No such person attends George Washington University.
No evidence has been found to support this existence of this supposed "Thao Nguyen" person.
Read 4 tweets
28 Nov 20
No GOP nominee has won a town in Berkshire County, Massachusetts since 2000. Seems likely that streak will end in 2024. The little town of Florida went for Biden by 1.4% or a margin of six votes. Was Obama +33% in 2012.
Last voted GOP for Pres in 1988 of all years.
Read 4 tweets
27 Nov 20
It's really pathetic how desperate they are to copy AOC without understanding her appeal. All these people have a fraction of the following she does. You can't copy the "Squad" and expect it to take off.
Victoria Spartz doesn't even have 7,000 followers. AOC has almost 11 million.
Republicans just don't get what made AOC take off and why their myriad of impostors always flop.
Read 4 tweets
26 Nov 20
Given Florida's Trumpiness, Gaetz is probably more in touch with the state's electorate than Rubio is.
There's more of an audience for Matt Gaetz than there is for whatever Rubio is selling.
Rubio is in awkward position. Voters didn't want what he was selling in 2016 so he's trying to make himself a bridge between that and Trumpism.
Read 4 tweets